January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

[Cromagnum]

Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.

San Antonio is a 3.5 hour drive from Houston and that line is not moving 65 mph

[javakah]

The part due west of us looks to be moving at about 40-45 mph at the moment, about 130 miles from Houston. So very well may be here before 1 am.

[javakah]

Looking like there may be several areas trying to spin (one in particular just a bit south of where the current warning is for).

[don]

Mesoscale Discussion 0022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Areas affected...east Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 110249Z - 110445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch downstream of WW0004 will be needed across
portions of east Texas in the next hour. Tornadoes and damaging
winds will be the main severe threats.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a couple of embedded
supercells is stretching south-north across central Texas. This line
of storms is expected to continue and further mature into a squall
line with plenty of instability and shear downstream. Additionally,
the low-level jet, which is already 40-50+ knots per mesoanalysis
and observed 00z soundings, will strengthen overnight. While the
flow will be mostly parallel to the line, the strong flow/forcing
will still result in a squall line moving eastward with cell motion
moving more to the northeast. Damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes
are the main severe threat. A couple of discrete cells may form
ahead of this line, which would increase the tornado threat.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28929531 28549621 28449680 28549722 29729706 30619679
30809636 31179574 31229567 31269452 31059406 30799395
30179386 29719410 29569434 28929531

[Katdaddy]

Yep, Don already posted. An active weather night on the way. Make sure your friends, family, and co-workers are weather aware tonight.

[don]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

TORNADO WATCH 6 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-041-051-071-089-157-167-185-201-225-239-291-313-321-
339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-111000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0006.200111T0305Z-200111T1000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CHAMBERS COLORADO
FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES
HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON
LIBERTY MADISON MATAGORDA
MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON


GMZ330-335-350-355-111000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0006.200111T0305Z-200111T1000Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

MATAGORDA BAY

GALVESTON BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

[Cpv17]

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.

San Antonio is a 3.5 hour drive from Houston and that line is not moving 65 mph

The line was forecasted all day long to be east of our region by 1 AM.

[Cpv17]

The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

It weakened. There was dark red echoes on the radar when the storms were west of SA and once it got east of there the intensity in the rain got less. Dark red echoes replaced by light red and orange on the radar. That’s what I meant by saying it weakened. Models were hinting at that all day long.

[don]

The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

It weakened. There was dark red echoes on the radar when the storms were west of SA and once it got east of there the intensity in the rain got less. Dark red echoes replaced by light red and orange on the radar. That’s what I meant by saying it weakened. Models were hinting at that all day long.

The line is expected to restrengthen once it reaches the I-45 corridor,several of the models have depicted that the line would weaken and then start to strengthen as it progresses east.

[Cpv17]

Don’t think so. There’s a tornado on I10

It weakened. There was dark red echoes on the radar when the storms were west of SA and once it got east of there the intensity in the rain got less. Dark red echoes replaced by light red and orange on the radar. That’s what I meant by saying it weakened. Models were hinting at that all day long.

The line is expected to restrengthen once it reaches the I-45 corridor,several of the models have depicted that the line would weaken and then start to strengthen as it progresses east.

Yep! I’m west of that area so it may not be too bad here in central Wharton County.

[DoctorMu]

The cell nearing Caldwell looks like it's ready to kick some tail. Heavy red. A severe T-storm warning has been issued. This line is motoring.

Hope everyone stays severe weather aware.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F34714E90.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F34716BDCTX.HGXSVSHGX.5ae20ddcd2f15d900d5d610d29bf1ec1 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 21:40 CST on 01-10-2020
Effective: 21:40 CST on 01-10-2020
Expires: 22:15 CST on 01-10-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN...BURLESON...WESTERN GRIMES...WASHINGTON...
BRAZOS...WESTERN MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTIES...

At 940 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Hearne to 6 miles west of
Fayetteville, moving northeast at 60 mph. The most severe part of
the line of storms is near Caldwell.
HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
homes, roofs, and outbuildings.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Caldwell, Washington,
Shelby, Somerville, Snook, Kurten, Burton, Wixon Valley, Millican,
Lake Somerville Dam, Kyle Field, Lake Somerville State Park &
Trailway, Iola, Carmine, Lyons and North Zulch.
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
Instructions: A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southeastern Texas. A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. If on or near Lake Somerville, get away from the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
Target Area:
Austin
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Madison
Waller
Washington

[javakah]

Tornado warned now too.

[DoctorMu]

Seeing a hook echo NE of Caldwell.

[DoctorMu]

North of 290 the line has strengthened.

[javakah]

Looking tamer and tamer by the minute.

[Cpv17]

Looking tamer and tamer by the minute.

Yep! I just hope we can at least get a half inch outta this. It’s very dry here in Wharton County.

[bikerack]

I just want the wind to knock down the last of my oak leaves so I can only do one last round of raking. I've been filling 4-5 big compost bags per week...

[jasons2k]

After a period of weakening, the line appears to be strengthening again. It is encountering some higher PWATS of 1.5" - sometimes that can make all the difference.

It's still 73F here - it's been that same temp. for hours now.

[javakah]

Tornado warning just east of Hempstead/west of the Woodlands.