January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

[don]

I notice the 12z NAM really starts to intensify the line in the eastern half of Harris county once the line reaches the I-45 corridor fwiw. It also shows signs of discreet cells in front of the squall line along and east of the I-45 corridor.

[BlueJay]

The wind is picking up. Hopefully more pine needles will be blown OFF the roof than ON it.

I hope eveyone fairs well during tonight's storm.

[harp]

And....the 12Z goes back to reality.... *poof*!

[kyzsl51]

And....the 12Z goes back to reality.... *poof*!

Models have always flip flopped when weve had our most powerful arctic blasts and wintry weather. Still plenty of time!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble) suggests much colder air arrives later next week. Those operational runs will flip flop daily at that range. I do see growing signs of a fairly significant pattern change brewing after mid January. The MJO appears to be coming alive and amplifying. I expect a great deal of model volatility over the next week.

Regarding the severe threat, our neighbors in N Central/NE Texas and NW Louisiana appear to have the greatest chance of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SE Texas folks do need to stay weather aware tonight as well as our neighbors further East early tomorrow morning and throughout Saturday.

[Andrew]

Tonight could be interesting to watch even down here as models have been pretty aggressive with the dynamics of this system. Wind profiles later this evening and when the line arrives are rather impressive, especially for this time of the year. Looks like we will have a 60-70kt LLJ screaming across the region. CAPE looks marginal but there should be more than enough lift to keep storms firing. We will also have to track any embedded rotation, especially during that 8-10pm period. Keep an eye on the weather tonight everyone!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble) suggests much colder air arrives later next week. Those operational runs will flip flop daily at that range. I do see growing signs of a fairly significant pattern change brewing after mid January. The MJO appears to be coming alive and amplifying. I expect a great deal of model volatility over the next week.

Regarding the severe threat, our neighbors in N Central/NE Texas and NW Louisiana appear to have the greatest chance of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SE Texas folks do need to stay weather aware tonight as well as our neighbors further East early tomorrow morning and throughout Saturday.

Yep, outside 7 days, the Operational is simply another run that can be lumped into the ensembles. The ingredients are all there upstream, especially as they are progressing from Okhotsk to Alaska to our MJO favored areas.

As for today, I'm very concerned for my hometown of Longview as they are under the gun. Luckily, my parents have an underground closet in their garage. As for Houston, we aren't out of the woods, and these type of systems have a tendency to surprise those not expecting the worst.

[harp]

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble) suggests much colder air arrives later next week. Those operational runs will flip flop daily at that range. I do see growing signs of a fairly significant pattern change brewing after mid January. The MJO appears to be coming alive and amplifying. I expect a great deal of model volatility over the next week.

Regarding the severe threat, our neighbors in N Central/NE Texas and NW Louisiana appear to have the greatest chance of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SE Texas folks do need to stay weather aware tonight as well as our neighbors further East early tomorrow morning and throughout Saturday.

Yep, outside 7 days, the Operational is simply another run that can be lumped into the ensembles. The ingredients are all there upstream, especially as they are progressing from Okhotsk to Alaska to our MJO favored areas.

As for today, I'm very concerned for my hometown of Longview as they are under the gun. Luckily, my parents have an underground closet in their garage. As for Houston, we aren't out of the woods, and these type of systems have a tendency to surprise those not expecting the worst.

You've been pretty steadfast in your thoughts about a coming pattern change.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS moves the really cold stuff east.

[DoctorMu]

Ensembles bring light freezes to B/CS. No freeze in HOU. Euro is colder than before, but also pushes cold east. Solutions are narrowing.

[Kingwood36]

12z GFS moves the really cold stuff east.

Doesn't it ALWAYS...

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble) suggests much colder air arrives later next week. Those operational runs will flip flop daily at that range. I do see growing signs of a fairly significant pattern change brewing after mid January. The MJO appears to be coming alive and amplifying. I expect a great deal of model volatility over the next week.

Regarding the severe threat, our neighbors in N Central/NE Texas and NW Louisiana appear to have the greatest chance of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SE Texas folks do need to stay weather aware tonight as well as our neighbors further East early tomorrow morning and throughout Saturday.

Yep, outside 7 days, the Operational is simply another run that can be lumped into the ensembles. The ingredients are all there upstream, especially as they are progressing from Okhotsk to Alaska to our MJO favored areas.

As for today, I'm very concerned for my hometown of Longview as they are under the gun. Luckily, my parents have an underground closet in their garage. As for Houston, we aren't out of the woods, and these type of systems have a tendency to surprise those not expecting the worst.

I saw a funnel cloud trying to form north of town. It's pretty easy to see the shear in the atmosphere as cloud of slightly different altitude are criss-crossing.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS moves the really cold stuff east.

Doesn't it ALWAYS...

haha Boy, that's the truth!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ensembles bring light freezes to B/CS. No freeze in HOU. Euro is colder than before, but also pushes cold east. Solutions are narrowing.

I'm not talking about next weekend... I'm talking about the last two weeks of January into February. The stars are aligning upstream for a major pattern shift to a true backend winter.

[Cpv17]

For whatever reason, the Euro is bottling up all the cold air in Canada. No mechanism to push it south.

[CrashTestDummy]

For whatever reason, the Euro is bottling up all the cold air in Canada. No mechanism to push it south.

Sweet!

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the North

[Cromagnum]

The atmosphere feels pretty angry down here, even if we aren't on the bullseye.

[srainhoutx]

New Tornado Watch likely within the hour for our Central Texas neighbors

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted for Central Texas