January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1141 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR conditions are very slowly improving and should be moving
into MVFR territory (except at the coast) in the next few hours.
A decaying, weak frontal boundary will be sagging into northern
parts of the area this afternoon and evening. Expect some sct
areas of shra/-ra as it does so...but overall confidence as to
where and when is low so went with just some VCSH`s as a first
guess and will amend as necessary. Ceilings will again lower this
evening and remain in the 500-1500ft range into late morning
Friday. Areas of dense sea fog will remain an issue near the
coast. 47

.DISCUSSION...
Visibilities are all above advsy criteria inland so will allow the
remaining products to expire at noon there...but continue them offshore
where it`ll linger thru the day. Look for it to gradually begin
returning inland around or shortly before sunset. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 59 73 59 69 / 30 30 30 40 40
Houston (IAH) 74 62 72 62 73 / 30 20 20 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 70 63 70 64 72 / 20 20 20 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

&&

$$
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

A little cooler this morning across SE TX with less fog. Another day of clouds, a few showers, and highs in the 70s. A cold front will move across SE TX tomorrow with rain and a few thunderstorms with clearing skies Saturday night resulting in nice weather Sunday for the Houston Marathon.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2020-01-17 at 5.29.27 AM.png
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

For the last three days, the NWS has had me at 34 on Monday night. Pretty consistent.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

This looks promising:

Image
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Promising to be wet at any rate.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

524
FXUS64 KHGX 171737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings/visibilities will slowly lift in the next 3 hours as
the diffuse backdoor frontal boundary washes out and a southeast
flow resumes. Conditions again deteriorate overnight as sea fog
rolls in and low stratus redevelops well inland. Expect a
combination of LIFR/IFR conditions as we head into the late
evening hours. Tail end of an upper disturbance passes across
northern terminal sites toward midnight which may bring a few
showers but should cause any additional impacts. Expect a broken
band of showers (and possibly an embedded tstm closer to the
coast) to develop ahead of a prefrontal trof as it pushes into the
region early Sat morning. Precip should taper off as the front
itself pushes thru. Current penciled in timing for that: CLL 16z,
IAH 20z, GLS 23z. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 61 65 39 55 / 20 50 60 10 0
Houston (IAH) 72 63 74 45 56 / 40 20 50 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 63 72 51 57 / 30 20 50 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I noticed today that the red maples are starting to bloom already.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Back to seasonal. No major freezes ahead. Save the rain for the Spring and Summer!
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

the Texas primrose, Mexican petunias are blooming already & neighbor's Bradford Pear is budding - kinda early, it's mid-Jan !
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

The front definitely cooled things off but this isn't bad at all for mid-January. Once the wind dies down it will be very nice.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Seasonable temps today and Tuesday with sun, before an upper level trough descends from the Rockies Wednesday.

Zonal flow continues. No exciting winter weather in the next week...but it beats 100°F and humid with no rain!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR. A weak northeast veering east wind with periods of high
cloudiness through the period. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tomorrow)...

Central Plains-centered surface high pressure has descended into
east state and weakened the post-frontal offshore pressure gradient.
A mostly sunny holiday with cirrus streaming in from the west will
counter the continued cold air moving in on weak northeast winds.
Thus, the day will once again only warm to around 60 F. The air mass
remains unchanged with a mainly clear overnight sky and near calm
winds producing another cold early Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning
minimum temperatures will be in the northern county lower to middle
30s, southern county upper 40s with the coldest inland spots briefly
falling to or below freezing a few hours on either side of sunrise.
Easterly winds slowly come around to onshore through Tuesday but in
not enough time to bring in lower level moisture to assist in
warming the day. Thus, with little change in this cold, dry air
mass, Tuesday`s conditions will be very similar to today`s.
Increasing and thickening high to mid level cloud cover as the
afternoon will only warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. 31

LONG TERM (Wednesday Through Monday)...

Our next storm system will be bringing rain (and maybe some isolated
thunderstorms) to the area early in this period. Beginning Tuesday
night through early Wednesday morning, expect to see increasing
cloud cover with rising shower coverage generally from west to east.
Rain chances (showers and possible isolated thunderstorms) really
ramp up during the day on Wednesday with a strengthening and convergent
flow off the Gulf. Will keep the rain chances high heading into
Wednesday night, but latest model trends point toward decreasing
coverage from west to east beginning somewhere in the midnight to
6 AM time period. Will show significantly decreasing rain chances
as the day progresses on Thursday (again from west to east), but
for this event some spots could end up seeing some decent rainfall
totals (possible >2 inches) mainly south of the I-10 corridor and
especially near/along the coast). High pressure building into the
area behind this storm system will keep the area dry Friday and
Saturday, and a majority of Southeast Texas looks to stay dry on
Sunday and Monday.

After a very cool Tuesday night, temperatures will begin to warm up
a little for the rainy Wednesday but highs should stay mostly in the
50s to around 60. Readings should not cool down too much on Wednesday
night (40s north...50s central and south) as the storm system works
its way across the area. Lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 50s/60s
will be the general range the area sees Thursday through Sunday. 42
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
20200121_084642.jpg
20200121_084642.jpg (105.31 KiB) Viewed 4059 times
20200121_100443.jpg
20200121_100443.jpg (134.88 KiB) Viewed 4059 times
20200121_101919.jpg
20200121_101919.jpg (72.11 KiB) Viewed 4059 times
20200121_084730.jpg
20200121_084730.jpg (120.67 KiB) Viewed 4059 times
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.

Your next 3 systems bring snow after the rain...and that means icy roads. You learn to stock up during periods above freezing temps and hunker down during ice and snow. Tire traction/friction and icy inclines don't work out well. Been stuck around Cashiers a time or two back in the day.

Back in the early 80s, we had some 0°F nights on a skiing trip.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Its interesting to flowers blooming along the trails in W League City. Another gloomy wet late week followed by another perfect SE TX Friday and Saturday.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Im so over what winter we have had..im sick of hearing about a pattern change that obviously isnt going to happen..can we just move the clocks ahead an hour and move on to spring
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:30 am Im so over what winter we have had..im sick of hearing about a pattern change that obviously isnt going to happen..can we just move the clocks ahead an hour and move on to spring
Right...this "winter" was embarrassing LOL
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:



An approaching storm system will bring widespread rains to SE TX early Wednesday through early Thursday.

High level cirrus clouds will increase from the SW/W today as a storm system over the SW US moves toward TX. By this evening a mid level cloud deck will overspread the region and light rain will begin to develop and advance toward the area from the southwest after midnight. Low levels will take a bit of time to become saturated allowing the light rain to reach the surface, but this process should be completed by early Wednesday morning. Light rain will be ongoing for much of the day on Wednesday as lift and moisture continues to spread across the region.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning:
PWS values increase to near 1.4 inches overnight Wednesday and strong lift comes to bear across the region (especially along the coast). Expect thunderstorms to develop and move from SW to NE across the SE 2/3rds of the area. Moisture levels will support heavy rainfall and much of this heavy rain, looks to fall over areas of Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties where 2-4 inches of rain fell on Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely for much of the area with totals of 2-3 inches along the coast. While flooding is currently not expected, the widespread nature of the rainfall will yield run-off into area creeks and rivers and result in rises. Some local flash flooding may be possible in Matagorda and Brazoria Counties where excessive rains fell this weekend. WPC has placed areas south of I-10 in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Storm system will move east of the region early Thursday with lingering showers exiting the area by mid to late morning. Cool and dry heading into late week and next weekend.
Attachments
01212020 Jeff 1.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures srainhoutx!! Loved them!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:08 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures srainhoutx!! Loved them!
Yeah, the photos srain posted were amazing, with clouds hugging the mountain peaks. The generate their own microclimates.

As an extreme example, K2 (second highest peak after Everest) generates its own snowstorms without warning... and can backhand climbers right off the mountain. You won't see a long line waiting to climb K2!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

It ain't over 'til it's over...but it's kinda over.

Arctic air bottled up in Alaska as zonal flow continues...

Image
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Amazon [Bot] and 65 guests