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January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:22 am
by mcheer23
New Years day looks like a cool and wet one!


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep4 ... 1577464634

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:13 pm
by Cpv17
The 12z Euro is looking good for some much needed rain!!

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:35 pm
by Ptarmigan
A start of a new decade.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
by harp
0Z GFS has that sub zero air lined up all along the Canadian border and northern Plains, but it WILL NOT budge south. It's stuck there. Frustrating.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:18 pm
by srainhoutx
If the 12Z European model is correct, a shot of that bitter cold air that is building in Alaska heads toward the Gulf in about 7 to 10 days. I see the Polar Vortex is shifting away from Alaska and beginning to set up East in Canada. Perhaps this is a signal that the pattern is relaxing that has been responsible for flooding the Lower 48 with mild Pacific air.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:57 pm
by Cpv17
I see both the Euro and GFS now have the heaviest rains to our south and east for the New Years system .. bad trend to see.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:04 am
by Cpv17
The overnight 0z Euro looked good for cold!! Bad thing is that it looks like the chances for rain for the New Years system that looked so promising the past several days is now fading away.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:06 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Again, my time period looks like it might be nails on.

I’m horrible at predicting actual winter weather events, but I can follow the cold across the globe.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:34 am
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:06 am Again, my time period looks like it might be nails on.

I’m horrible at predicting actual winter weather events, but I can follow the cold across the globe.
Well you know a lot more about weather than most of the people on here lol including myself. I know about half of what you know haha

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:54 pm
by DoctorMu
GFS brings cold to the east, while Canadian leaves the cold in the west.

12Z Euro still bringing significant cold into the plains after Jan 7.

Three completely different solutions over the next 10-12 days.

"Uncertainty" then is the word of the day.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:17 pm
by Cpv17
We need rain more than cold and our New Years system that looked so promising on the models for so many days is now just about toast for our area.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:25 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Image

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:42 pm
by harp
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:25 pm Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Image
Explain, please.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:08 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
harp wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:42 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:25 pm Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Image
Explain, please.
Negative PNA, WPO, EPO and a NAO trending negative. The only thing about that setup I don’t particularly like is how negative the PNA is, but we can still work with it.

It’s a setup that should deliver cold to us and if we can cut off a system over the Baja, we are in the game for some winter weather.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:44 pm
by harp
That's what I thought. Thanks for the response!

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:57 pm
by harp
Interesting stuff. May be a late winter this year according to this. Worth watching since things are so boring at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:52 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
harp wrote: Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:57 pm Interesting stuff. May be a late winter this year according to this. Worth watching since things are so boring at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo
The progression is coming. This guy seems to think it’s slower but he sees the same thing I do.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:36 am
by cperk
Happy New Year to all my Wx infinity forum members and their families,and i am looking forward to discussing all the wintry weather we will be receiving in the coming weeks. :D :D

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:32 am
by Ptarmigan
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:08 pm
harp wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:42 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:25 pm Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Image
Explain, please.
Negative PNA, WPO, EPO and a NAO trending negative. The only thing about that setup I don’t particularly like is how negative the PNA is, but we can still work with it.

It’s a setup that should deliver cold to us and if we can cut off a system over the Baja, we are in the game for some winter weather.
Negative West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tend to have ridging over Eastern Russian (WPO), Alaska (EPO), and Greenland (NAO). The ridging tend to bring cold air southward.

One can have positive NAO and negative EPO/WPO and still have cold blasts. That happened in December 1983 and February 1989 freeze.

Re: January 2020: Starting off the new decade cool and wet

Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:52 am
by Kingwood36
What happend to this rain we were suppose to get today?