January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:48 pm

Seasonable temps today and Tuesday with sun, before an upper level trough descends from the Rockies Wednesday.

Zonal flow continues. No exciting winter weather in the next week...but it beats 100°F and humid with no rain!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR. A weak northeast veering east wind with periods of high
cloudiness through the period. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tomorrow)...

Central Plains-centered surface high pressure has descended into
east state and weakened the post-frontal offshore pressure gradient.
A mostly sunny holiday with cirrus streaming in from the west will
counter the continued cold air moving in on weak northeast winds.
Thus, the day will once again only warm to around 60 F. The air mass
remains unchanged with a mainly clear overnight sky and near calm
winds producing another cold early Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning
minimum temperatures will be in the northern county lower to middle
30s, southern county upper 40s with the coldest inland spots briefly
falling to or below freezing a few hours on either side of sunrise.
Easterly winds slowly come around to onshore through Tuesday but in
not enough time to bring in lower level moisture to assist in
warming the day. Thus, with little change in this cold, dry air
mass, Tuesday`s conditions will be very similar to today`s.
Increasing and thickening high to mid level cloud cover as the
afternoon will only warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. 31

LONG TERM (Wednesday Through Monday)...

Our next storm system will be bringing rain (and maybe some isolated
thunderstorms) to the area early in this period. Beginning Tuesday
night through early Wednesday morning, expect to see increasing
cloud cover with rising shower coverage generally from west to east.
Rain chances (showers and possible isolated thunderstorms) really
ramp up during the day on Wednesday with a strengthening and convergent
flow off the Gulf. Will keep the rain chances high heading into
Wednesday night, but latest model trends point toward decreasing
coverage from west to east beginning somewhere in the midnight to
6 AM time period. Will show significantly decreasing rain chances
as the day progresses on Thursday (again from west to east), but
for this event some spots could end up seeing some decent rainfall
totals (possible >2 inches) mainly south of the I-10 corridor and
especially near/along the coast). High pressure building into the
area behind this storm system will keep the area dry Friday and
Saturday, and a majority of Southeast Texas looks to stay dry on
Sunday and Monday.

After a very cool Tuesday night, temperatures will begin to warm up
a little for the rainy Wednesday but highs should stay mostly in the
50s to around 60. Readings should not cool down too much on Wednesday
night (40s north...50s central and south) as the storm system works
its way across the area. Lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 50s/60s
will be the general range the area sees Thursday through Sunday. 42

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srainhoutx
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm

You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:48 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm
You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.

Your next 3 systems bring snow after the rain...and that means icy roads. You learn to stock up during periods above freezing temps and hunker down during ice and snow. Tire traction/friction and icy inclines don't work out well. Been stuck around Cashiers a time or two back in the day.

Back in the early 80s, we had some 0°F nights on a skiing trip.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Katdaddy » Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:17 pm

Its interesting to flowers blooming along the trails in W League City. Another gloomy wet late week followed by another perfect SE TX Friday and Saturday.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:30 am

Im so over what winter we have had..im sick of hearing about a pattern change that obviously isnt going to happen..can we just move the clocks ahead an hour and move on to spring

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by snowman65 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:54 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:30 am
Im so over what winter we have had..im sick of hearing about a pattern change that obviously isnt going to happen..can we just move the clocks ahead an hour and move on to spring
Right...this "winter" was embarrassing LOL

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:07 am

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:



An approaching storm system will bring widespread rains to SE TX early Wednesday through early Thursday.

High level cirrus clouds will increase from the SW/W today as a storm system over the SW US moves toward TX. By this evening a mid level cloud deck will overspread the region and light rain will begin to develop and advance toward the area from the southwest after midnight. Low levels will take a bit of time to become saturated allowing the light rain to reach the surface, but this process should be completed by early Wednesday morning. Light rain will be ongoing for much of the day on Wednesday as lift and moisture continues to spread across the region.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning:
PWS values increase to near 1.4 inches overnight Wednesday and strong lift comes to bear across the region (especially along the coast). Expect thunderstorms to develop and move from SW to NE across the SE 2/3rds of the area. Moisture levels will support heavy rainfall and much of this heavy rain, looks to fall over areas of Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties where 2-4 inches of rain fell on Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely for much of the area with totals of 2-3 inches along the coast. While flooding is currently not expected, the widespread nature of the rainfall will yield run-off into area creeks and rivers and result in rises. Some local flash flooding may be possible in Matagorda and Brazoria Counties where excessive rains fell this weekend. WPC has placed areas south of I-10 in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Storm system will move east of the region early Thursday with lingering showers exiting the area by mid to late morning. Cool and dry heading into late week and next weekend.
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by jasons2k » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:08 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm
You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures srainhoutx!! Loved them!

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:13 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:08 pm
srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm
You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures srainhoutx!! Loved them!
Yeah, the photos srain posted were amazing, with clouds hugging the mountain peaks. The generate their own microclimates.

As an extreme example, K2 (second highest peak after Everest) generates its own snowstorms without warning... and can backhand climbers right off the mountain. You won't see a long line waiting to climb K2!

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:27 pm

It ain't over 'til it's over...but it's kinda over.

Arctic air bottled up in Alaska as zonal flow continues...

Image

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