January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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harp
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by harp » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:57 am

Tropical Tidbits is down.

texoz
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by texoz » Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:37 pm
vci_guy2003 wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm
How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.
Why is that phrased, "If you believe the poles are warming..." ?

North Pole is clearly warming, which will affect Northern Hemisphere climatic patterns going forward. South Pole on the surface has not shown much warming, but around the edges in the ocean, most definitely.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:53 pm

The afternoon Climate Prediction Center Updated Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 suggest a change in the pattern is coming. Below normal temperatures look more likely for the Central and Eastern United States with normal to above normal precipitation for portions of Texas.
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jasons2k
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by jasons2k » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:18 pm

texoz wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:37 pm
vci_guy2003 wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm
How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.
Why is that phrased, "If you believe the poles are warming..." ?

North Pole is clearly warming, which will affect Northern Hemisphere climatic patterns going forward. South Pole on the surface has not shown much warming, but around the edges in the ocean, most definitely.
Yes. And as MontgomeryCountyWx said, we could debate this one all night over a bottle of bourbon - hehe.

My $.02 - yes, the increase in warmth will result in more volatility, which, in theory, could result in more frequent cold outbreaks.

But the flip side is - well, the obvious - you have less cold air and arctic ice, and those outbreaks can’t be as severe.

We’ve seen the setup a few times over the last several years, but when it’s time to “dump” down the plains, the bitterness isn’t what it used to be.

I believe we have seen enough warming over the last 100 years that until it is reversed, there won’t be another 1899-like outbreak. There is just not enough cold and ice up there any longer to make it happen.

I think that 17 we saw a few years ago would have been 7 if it had occurred 50+ years ago....

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:56 pm

A lot of chatter about how winter is just about to get started later this month and into February, but I just don’t really see it yet on the models. I’m not one that’s educated enough to know what to look for exactly so what the heck do I know lol I don’t see that much cold air headed this way, not even on the ensembles. I will say that the models do look fairly wet though. My guess would be that we’ll be slightly below normal temps wise with above normal precipitation for the next few weeks.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by harp » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:23 pm

Operational GFS finally coming around! Trend is our friend.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:41 am

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of SE TX this morning which will make for a messy morning commute. A warm, cloudy, damp day ahead with scattered showers and patches of fog. Another round of Dense Fog Advisories likely this evening and overnight.
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by redneckweather » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:00 am

Man this place is dead. Let me kick things up a notch.😎

20200114_095829.jpg

harp
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by harp » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:07 am

I have been very surprised how dead this place has been. Things are trending in the right direction. At least for now.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by snowman65 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:16 am

redneckweather wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:00 am
Man this place is dead. Let me kick things up a notch.😎


20200114_095829.jpg
Don't believe the hype. Watch it disappear like a David Copperfield show LOL

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