January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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Cpv17
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:09 pm

First off, Montgomery, sorry about your loss. The GFS ensembles are the only thing that look decent right now. The operationals look bad and so does the EPS. And even the GEFS isn’t looking as good as it was. It has most of the cold staying up near the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by harp » Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:32 pm

This is so confusing. I hear one day: This is looking good. The next day: Nah, not so much. I read MJO looks like it's moving in the right direction. PNA may be going positive, etc. It's difficult to have any expectations when things seem to change from day to day. I'm sure winter weather lovers are just as frustrated as I am. Arrgghh!!!

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:17 pm

Because people live and die by each model run. I haven’t wavered off my prediction of a cold end to January and start to February.

When models go into chaos with ups and downs so do the weather forums. Storm2k is no different. A lot of absolutist takes based on model runs instead of looking at old school forecasting and all the tools available.
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tireman4
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by tireman4 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:48 pm

Models will flip flop. They always do. Be patient.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Cromagnum » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:21 pm

Upper 70s in a couple days. Gross by January standards.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by vci_guy2003 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm

How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:37 pm

vci_guy2003 wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm
How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Katdaddy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:52 am

A thunderstorm is moving onshore near Galveston, TX headed NE toward Galveston Bay this morning.
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by snowman65 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:20 am

Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days :lol: :lol:

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead/Strong Cold Front Saturday?

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:34 am

snowman65 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:20 am
Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days :lol: :lol:
Yep. 12z is having issues.

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