January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Kingwood36 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:35 pm

That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?

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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:45 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:35 pm
That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?
Yes it is and discrete supercells that form ahead of it.

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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:58 pm

What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.

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don
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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by don » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:02 pm

The latest 18z NAM doesn't weaken the line.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11018&fh=6

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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:05 pm

Severe Weather Update from Jeff:

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for SC TX until 1000pm.

Strong forcing associated with a powerful incoming upper level trough and cold front is resulting in the formation of a line of strong storms west of I-35. This line of storms will continue to increase and grow into a solid line as is moves eastward this evening. This line will reach the western portions of SE TX (Columbus to College Station) around early to mid evening and into the central portions of the area (Houston) around 1000pm to midnight. Strong winds…some damaging will be possible with this line. While wind damage and isolated tornadoes are possible, not everyone is going to see wind damage. The greatest threat for damaging winds continues to be roughly north of I-10 and most likely north of HWY 105

An additional weather watch (severe thunderstorm or tornado) will likely be required for SE TX by early evening.

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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by harp » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:56 pm

The GFS seems to be trending warmer and warmer... arghhh!!! It had been getting colder and colder.... the pendulum swings....

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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Andrew » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:07 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:58 pm
What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.
The HRRR shows a stronger cap compared to the NAM/GFS. Looking at the sounding A&M put out at 21z, whatever fires will definitely have the potential for strong storms.
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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm

The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Seantx81 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week

Post by Ptarmigan » Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:36 pm

Seantx81 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm
Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
So very true.

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