December 2019: Warming Trend/Weekend Rain/Christmas Outlook

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snowman65
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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by snowman65 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:02 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:42 pm
This weather is so boring. Winter might start becoming the most boring season for me. At least during the summer I can track tropical systems.
I know what you mean. Even when another place gets hit with a hurricane I will watch a lot on tv to keep up.....but I don't watch when other places get snow....lol

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by snowman65 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:14 am

Well the Dec-Mar temperature outlook just came out.....let's just put it this way.....let's just move on to next winter.

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by tireman4 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:23 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

.AVIATION...
Some 3500-4000 foot ceilings continue to decrease in coverage early
this morning, and a majority of locations should be VFR for most of
the day with winds between east and south and staying below 10 knots.
Might see increasing clouds again tonight through tomorrow morning
with possible MVFR ceiling development around 2500-3000 feet. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A weekend of mostly quiet weather remains ahead - we`ll begin with
temperatures a little below normal, with gradual warming through
Sunday despite a very weak cold front on Saturday. A stronger cold
front is expected on Monday, which will bring our next chance for
showers and storms, along with colder conditions next week.

SHORT TERM [Through Friday]...

Quiet weather can be expected through Friday. Clouds are
increasing from south to north across the area early this
morning, and expect this trend to continue throughout the
day. After a cold start to the morning, look for temperatures
to warm up into to 60s for much of the area. Tonight and
tomorrow look similar to today with slightly warmer
temperatures (both lows and highs).

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

Friday night will feature a very weak cold front moving through as
a new surface high settles over Southeast Texas on Saturday. How
will you know the front passed? Well, you probably won`t. Rain
chances are virtually nil, and temperatures Saturday are expected
to be near or even a teensy bit warmer than Friday. About the only
indicator will be the shift of winds from southwesterly on Friday
to northwesterly by Saturday morning, becoming southeasterly by
Saturday night as the high drifts east of us.

As onshore flow returns, we`ll begin to start the process of
moisture return ahead of the next front. After a pause in the
warmup on Saturday, temperatures should be decidedly (10 or more
degrees) above normal on Sunday.

The upper trough supporting the next front will be dropping off
the Rockies Sunday night. Beyond the consistency in the broad
scale pattern though, there is an enormous spread of the low
pressure feature at lower levels and the surface. The Euro speeds
troughing from 700 mb down way out to around St. Louis, forming up
the surface low far to our east, and giving us a glancing blow as
the front rolls through. The GFS is much slower, forming up a
surface low over North Texas. And...while it doesn`t really
strengthen much until it`s past us, gives us a bit more of a
traditional frontal passage.

With such a wide spread in the guidance, it`s probably no surprise
that the forecast largely resembles a blend of the guidance,
tweaked a bit for known weaknesses of this blending around sharp
discontinuities like fronts. This starts the front moving in from
the northwest into spots like B/CS, Madisonville, and Crockett
before dawn on Monday, passing through Houston mid-to-late-
morning, and shoving across the Gulf waters through the afternoon.
This peaks rain chances for most of the area on Monday morning. If
so, while there would surely be potential for thunderstorms, it
would focus any severe threat to our east.

Just...don`t get tied to this timing. With such important details
needed to be ironed out, things can certainly still shift by
several hours. This could have important implications on sensible
weather with the frontal passage. So...we`re very confident in a
front passing early next week, bringing rain and some
thunderstorms. Beyond that...things are still more up in the air.
Odds probably favor a scenario with light to moderate rain
showers and some isolated thunderstorms, but confidence here is
much lower than the general idea.

MARINE...

Seas have remained elevated early this morning, and have gone
ahead and issued a Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters
and Caution Flags for the nearshore waters. Still anticipating
gradual improvement to begin this morning. Otherwise, a NE/E
flow will persist into early Friday as a trof/surface low moves
to the north then eventually northeast. Winds will gradually
back to more of a westerly direction as this feature makes its
way toward the northeastern Gulf coast. There remains some
uncertainty in regards to wind directions on Saturday, but an
onshore flow should become more prevalent Sunday and Sunday night
ahead of the next stronger cold front on Monday. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed in the wake of that front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 45 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 62 48 70 47 70 / 0 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 56 67 55 68 / 0 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:07 pm

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:14 am
Well the Dec-Mar temperature outlook just came out.....let's just put it this way.....let's just move on to next winter.
Lol yep

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by harp » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:32 pm

LOL! I can't believe some of you folks. I put no faith in long term forecasts, whether or not they say what I want them to say. Last year, all signs pointed to a very cold winter. It never happened. So, what makes you so convinced this "warmer" forecast will come to fruition? Think about that....

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by cperk » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:46 pm

harp wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:32 pm
LOL! I can't believe some of you folks. I put no faith in long term forecasts, whether or not they say what I want them to say. Last year, all signs pointed to a very cold winter. It never happened. So, what makes you so convinced this "warmer" forecast will come to fruition? Think about that....

Those reports are not etched in stone we have at least 3 more months before we hang the winter closed sign, so harp i totally agree with you.

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:02 pm

harp wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:32 pm
LOL! I can't believe some of you folks. I put no faith in long term forecasts, whether or not they say what I want them to say. Last year, all signs pointed to a very cold winter. It never happened. So, what makes you so convinced this "warmer" forecast will come to fruition? Think about that....
Honestly I doubt it. We live in the Deep South after all. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not an optimist, not a pessimist, I’m just a realist.

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:06 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:02 pm
harp wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:32 pm
LOL! I can't believe some of you folks. I put no faith in long term forecasts, whether or not they say what I want them to say. Last year, all signs pointed to a very cold winter. It never happened. So, what makes you so convinced this "warmer" forecast will come to fruition? Think about that....
Honestly I doubt it. We live in the Deep South after all. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not an optimist, not a pessimist, I’m just a realist.
A realist would say, “don’t put stock in long range forecasts because they are wrong 90% of the time...”
Team #NeverSummer

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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by Texaspirate11 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:44 pm

The forecast also said it would be a below average to average cane season - oops.
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Cpv17
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Re: December 2019: Strong Cold Front/Unsettled WX Next Week

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:07 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:06 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:02 pm
harp wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:32 pm
LOL! I can't believe some of you folks. I put no faith in long term forecasts, whether or not they say what I want them to say. Last year, all signs pointed to a very cold winter. It never happened. So, what makes you so convinced this "warmer" forecast will come to fruition? Think about that....
Honestly I doubt it. We live in the Deep South after all. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not an optimist, not a pessimist, I’m just a realist.
A realist would say, “don’t put stock in long range forecasts because they are wrong 90% of the time...”
Trust me I don’t put stock in them lol they’re trash. Even the Euro isn’t as good as it used to be. I’m just saying that because of where we live. It almost takes a miracle to get snow down here.

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