December 2019: Warming Trend/Weekend Rain/Christmas Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:14 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:32 am
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:57 pm

Weird how you’re so much different from everyone else. How are you able to do that? There’s no way in hell I’d do that. You’re cut from a different cloth, for sure.
I always have. I’m guessing it’s bloodlines back to Eastern Europe.

Funny story about the cold....we were in the TX HS Football playoffs in ‘98 and it was 20 degrees with flurries. Our QB and RBs did not want to be there (we had 4 yards at halftime) so I went to our coach and told him to draw up 4 base plays out of an Run Pass Option shotgun formation. Our line and our defense wasn’t going to lose because it was “cold”.

I had never played QB (I played defense and was 220 lbs which was huge for QB at that time) but I knew I wasn’t going to get stiff so I plowed into the DL over and over and dinked and dunked our way down the field and won 13-7. My mother was horrified when she kept hearing our last name over and over on offense and she realized what had happened.
Where was that game played at? Somewhere up in NTX I bet.
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Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:02 am Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Southerly winds have briefly returned ahead of a weak cool front that will cross the area this afternoon. Overall impacts to the weather will be minor with mainly a delay in the warming trend ahead of the next strong cold front expected to arrive on Monday.

With the front crossing the area this afternoon, lows Saturday will fall back into the 40’s, but warm quickly into the low to mid 70’s for highs with sunny skies. Changes begin on Sunday as southerly flow becomes established. Afternoon highs on Sunday will push the upper 70’s to lower 80’s which could be near record highs for mid December. While moisture increase ahead of the Monday frontal passage, the main dynamics of this system look to pass off to our north and east. Best rain chances on Monday will be along the front and likely occur along and NE of a line from Huntsville to Katy to Galveston. This is been the recent pattern this fall of storm systems barely able to produce much rainfall west of I-45 and drought conditions have slowly returned to these areas. Strong cold air advection behind the front will result in falling temperatures from near record highs on Sunday to the 40’s and 50’s by Monday afternoon and evening. Cold air mass will remain in place through the middle of next week before another storm system approaches the area toward next Thursday and Friday.

Drought conditions have expanded in the last month with a general lack of rainfall especially across central and southwest Texas. Extended range outlooks suggest below normal rainfall over the next 3 months over southern Texas which will likely worsen ongoing drought conditions.
I expect this map to get much worse over the next few months. Could get pretty ugly around here by the summer with a big wildfire risk.
Cpv17
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Many of the reporting stations are all wrong this morning. It’s low to mid 40’s out there this morning, not mid to upper 40’s. I had 43 at my house this morning and the reporting station just 10 minutes away from me was saying 49 lol
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jasons2k
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What a beautiful day today!! 75 degrees, no humidity, clear blue skies, a very light breeze — it doesn’t get much better than this! A good day to drive around with the windows rolled down too.
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Katdaddy
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It was a perfect SE TX weather day!!! As good as it gets with prefect blue skies. So very awesome.
Cpv17
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Katdaddy wrote: Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:26 pm It was a perfect SE TX weather day!!! As good as it gets with prefect blue skies. So very awesome.
Best day we’ve had in a while. I mean it was literally perfect.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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A perfect day for Summer, late Spring or early Fall.

A very flawed day for December.
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DoctorMu
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Warm for Dec, but the DP was low, sono biggie. We do need a few more freezes to dampen down instect.

I'm OK with drier winters, not unusual after a preceding El Nino winter, as long as we get rain from March - August.

However, the humid air moved in this evening. Tomorrow's not an ideal Dec day - humid and 80°F. Watch out for FOG tomorrow am.


Tue and Wed nights may have a light freeze after the cold front, in CLL.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1135 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.AVIATION...
Ceilings have developed and deteriorated much faster than expected
with a blanket of IFR ceilings over all but the southernmost TAF
sites. A persistent onshore flow will continue to bring low level
moisture into the region beneath a strong cap. Winds will not
decouple tonight so expecting low stratus for much of the night
into early Sunday. Winds will increase further and there should be
enough heating to lift ceilings by afternoon with a mix of
MVFR/VFR ceilings. Sea fog may develop toward evening at KGLS. Not
sure if ceilings will redevelop toward evening and kept things
VFR for now. Introduced a VCSH for KIAH for the last six hours of
the TAF period. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

UPDATE...

As winds shifted southerly this afternoon/evening, warm and moist
air mass from the Gulf filtered into the region. Low level
moisture has increased dewpoint values sufficiently enough to
create favorable conditions for fog development tonight through
Sunday morning. Earlier dewpoint/temperature/wind analysis
showed southern regions affected by fog starting near midnight,
spreading into the central and northern regions a few hours
thereafter. Well, it began even earlier than expected. Areas of
fog have already been spotted over portions of Brazoria,
Galveston, Harris, and Fort Bend counties and it continues to
spread out. However, winds look to pick up as the pressure gradient
tightens. This may not allow for dense fog to stick as much over
these areas. The fog is expected to lift during the morning hours
Sunday, but could re-appear along areas near the bays and coasts
due to possible sea fog formation Sunday evening. Onshore flow
will prevail Sunday, continuing the warming trend across SE Texas.
High temperatures Sunday afternoon will reach the low 80s across
most of the region, slightly cooler along the coasts and Barrier
Islands. No rainfall is expected, but will remain party to
variably cloudy.

Main Changes: Updated the temperatures to better represent the
current observations. Included patchy fog for the Brazoria,
Galveston, Harris, and Fort Bend counties a few hours earlier
from what was previously forecasted. The rest of the forecast
remains unchanged. 24

Marine...

Winds will increase tonight as the pressure gradient tightens, and
in turn elevate seas; SCEC flags have been issued for the
offshore waters through 5 AM CST.

Dewpoints will be increasing to near 70s Sunday and with water
temperatures around 64, there is potential for sea fog to develop
across the bays and nearshore Gulf waters during the evening
through Monday morning. Fog development will cease with the
passage of the next cold front Monday, as drier and colder air
mass moves into the local waters. 43/24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 82 60 65 37 / 10 10 20 50 0
Houston (IAH) 58 81 68 72 40 / 10 10 30 80 10
Galveston (GLS) 64 77 67 71 45 / 10 10 30 70 20


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to start the TA period but a persistent
onshore flow will bring abundant low level moisture into the
region with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing after 06z. Winds
will not fully decouple tonight, especially over southern TAf
sites and this should favor low ceilings instead of fog. Over
northern TAf sites, winds might be lighter and there is some
potential for fog at both KCXO, KCLL and KUTS. Fcst soundings show
ceilings scattering out after 16z but LAV/LAMP guidance keeps a a
mix of MVFR/low end VFR ceilings in place for much of Sunday. With
the continued onshore flow and increasing moisture, feel that
clouds will remain. Lastly, dew points will warm into the lower
70`s at KGLS by 22z. Water temps are around 64 degrees. There is
some potential for sea fog late Sunday/Sun night around KGLS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...

Main issue with the short term will be the return of onshore
winds and low-level moisture overnight/tomorrow. Patchy fog will
be possible tonight with the best chances across our northern
counties. We should see more low clouds (as opposed to fog) for
the southern and coastal counties given the slightly stronger
winds there. This low-level flow should continue to increase
tomorrow as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to
the storm system deepening/moving into the Southern Plains.

With the low clouds/fog mixing out by mid morning, tomorrow after-
noon could be a rather warm one.

Here are the record highs and their date of occurrence:
CLL...84/1924
IAH...82/1995
HOU...81/1995
GLS...77/2012

41

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Temperatures will remain above normal Sunday night as southwesterly
flow continues to pump warm, moist air into southeast Texas. There
may be some patchy fog developing near the Bays in the very early
morning hours on Monday, but the real story on Monday will be the
cold front pushing through the region. Timing looks to push the cold
front through Burleson and up through Houston county around 13 to
15z, then Houston Metro around 17 to 19z, and finally off into the
Gulf by 19 to 21z. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms as the
cold front pushes through with the best coverage occuring after it
passes through Houston Metro and the largest rain totals (around
half an inch) occuring in Chambers, Liberty, and Galveston counties.
Like previously mentioned, there is a chance of some thunderstorms
developing with this frontal passage, especially in the northeastern
portion of the region where CAPE values will be around 1000 to 1500
J/kg with decent shear. The slower the front is thus allowing for
more heating out front of it the better the chances for some severe
thunderstorms developing are, but with the current timing the
chances of severe weather will be mainly marginal as per the SPC.
Any precipitation chances shut down after in the late afternoon on
Monday leaving us with just the cold air to deal with.

Temperatures Monday night will be almost 30 degrees cooler than what
we will experience Sunday night with most of the region dipping into
the upper 30s to low 40s. Tuesday will be dry and chilly, then
Tuesday night much of the northern portion of the region will flirt
with near freezing temperatures as radiational cooler comes into
full effect. Wednesday and Wednesday night will be very similar to
the previous day, just add a few degrees. The warm up continues on
Thursday as the high pressure that was over the region slides out to
the east and southerly flow returns. Our next chance of
precipitation comes at Thursday night into Friday as a weak
disturbance passes through Texas. Model agreement on this system is
better now than this time yesterday (EC actually has the system,
which it didn`t yesterday), but still lacking. GFS brings the weak
front through early Friday morning, while the EC is delayed about 18
hours. So main takeaway is that there will probably be some
disturbance occuring in the later part of the week.
Andrew
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Unfortunately, I don't see anything pointing to a cold Christmas around here. Models aren't as warm as they once were but temperatures are still above normal for this time of the year. Looking past that, some hints are starting to show up that we could see a cold blast closer to the New Year.
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snowman65
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brrrrr. what a winter this is going to be...lol. I'm 54 years old and this will rank in top 3 most undesirable winters ever. I knew when we had that cold blast in November we were in trouble.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:33 pm brrrrr. what a winter this is going to be...lol. I'm 54 years old and this will rank in top 3 most undesirable winters ever. I knew when we had that cold blast in November we were in trouble.
That has nothing to do with whether January and February are cold.

The Pacific will work with us again late this month into January. You can see it progressing.
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Cpv17
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Ugly!!

Image
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snowman65
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 15, 2019 5:17 pm Ugly!!

Image
I could have told you that without a map lol....
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srainhoutx
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Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:


After record warmth on Sunday…a strong cold front will sweep across the region today returning the area to winter.

Strong front is located from NE TX to College Station to Austin to Del Rio at 700am and is moving southeastward at 20-30mph. Isolated showers have begun to develop across the region along and ahead of this boundary and this will continue through the rest of the day as the boundary moves across the area. Temperatures will fall 15-25 degrees as the front passes with most locations ahead of the boundary currently in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and then falling into the upper 40’s and low 50’s behind the front. For example Georgetown is currently 43 and LaGrange 70.

As for rainfall…air mass is capped aloft and expected much of what transpires over the next 4-6 hours to be mainly light showers and drizzle. Instability does increase across our coastal sections and eastward into Louisiana where there could be a few thunderstorms as the front passes. Will keep rainfall amounts on the very light side with most locations averaging either side of .25 of an inch if that.

Front is already through College Station and should be into the metro area in the 1030-100pm time frame and then off the coast 100-300pm. Strong cold air advection will onset behind the front and last into the middle of the week. Skies will rapidly clear this evening allowing temperatures to fall into the 30’s over much of the area. Areas from College Station to Lake Livingston could reach freezing by Tuesday morning. Cold high pressure builds over the area on Tuesday with high temperatures struggling to reach the lower 50’s even with full sun. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning with freezing temperatures possible as far south as HWY 105 and potentially even into the north and western portions of Harris County.

Quick warm up Thursday into the lower 60’s ahead of a fast moving disturbance that will bring a quick shot at rainfall Thursday night and Friday morning. High pressure builds back into the region late Friday through the weekend.

Next Week:
High pressure that will build into the area this weekend will begin to slide eastward and an extended period of onshore flow will likely be in place for much of next week. Temperatures and humidity values will begin to increase starting morning
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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83°F yesterday; 48°F today. The front blasted through in Dallas yesterday as we were picking up our son at Love Field. Serious advection. Unfortunately, "overrun" is the word of the day.

However, sunny, beautiful weather for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.


So the next 48 hours are your winter for December if the models hold. Maybe in the New Year.
harp
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I just posted on another forum that the GFS seems to be trying to bring the cold down to us in the days after Christmas. Even the CMC is showing signs of that. Let's see if that continues. Any other thoughts? Thanks.
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The Cold Front as of 12:06 pm
Attachments
The Cold Front as of 12 06 pm December 16  2019.JPG
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Cold front continues to push through KIAH to KSGR and should be
pushing through KHOU through the next hour. There may be some
isolated TSRA and will keep that mention for KIAH and may need to
add to KHOU TAF should radar trends support it. Right now think
most of the convection will be showers. There will be some IFR
conditions behind the front for a few hours and then slowly
improving to MVFR. Big question will be how quickly ceilings
improve. Models show rather quick improvement this afternoon and
we will have already adjusted the TAF for slower improvement. We
will likely need to adjust this into the afternoon after tracking
satellite trends.

Overpeck


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 33 53 30 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 36 54 34 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 53 43 56 48 / 20 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Tuesday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck
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tireman4
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Cold Front as of 2:18 pm
Attachments
Cold Front as of 2 17 pm December 16  2019.JPG
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djmike
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Wow! Torrential flooding rain, winds, hail, tornadoe! We are getting slammed in Beaumont! Just WOW!!!
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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