November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2019: Strong Cold Front/Possible Freeze Warning Tuesday Night

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:22 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:17 am
Boy it sure is dead in here
Today and the first half of tomorrow are boring and nasty
Team #NeverSummer

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:27 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:17 am
Boy it sure is dead in here
Well the front doesn’t really appear to be all that cold as originally first thought and also there appears to be less precipitation as first thought as well..so there’s not really too much to be excited about at the moment. Just will be cold and dreary for a few days.

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by jasons2k » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:29 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:22 am
Kingwood36 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:17 am
Boy it sure is dead in here
Today and the first half of tomorrow are boring and nasty
Just went for a run. Absolutely beautiful outside today!! The park was full of families enjoying this nice weather :)

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djmike
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by djmike » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:05 am

Wow. Local mets and NWSLC went from a low of 31 for Tuesday to now a low of 28 for Beaumont. Time to cover plants and drip faucets here. Only thing I hate is doesn't stay cold long. 28 for Tuesday night to 41 to Wednesday night. Hope this year isn’t seesaw like last year in temps. I remember when we had true winters and it STAYED cold for 3 months. The heater STAYED on heat. Not heater/AC/heater/AC......lol. Have a great Monday.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by unome » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:19 am

gusts peaked at 51mph by Wichita Falls this morning - don't bother collecting leaves just yet & get your preps done before the cold arrives !

https://twitter.com/NWSWichita

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&sc ... opacity=70

https://preview.weather.gov/edd/resourc ... ined|1#%2F

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srainhoutx
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:40 am

Lots of information via the morning Area Forecast Discussion. Time to get in winter mode around here for a few days. Also, pay close attention to the forecast this evening into tomorrow morning regarding any potential travel impacts we may have to deal with overnight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CST MON NOV 11 2019

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

TODAY'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE; MIDDLE 30S WITH 40 KNOT WINDS IN AMARILLO WITH
LOWER 70S AND A DECENT ONSHORE WIND 600 MILES AWAY OVER THE COASTAL
BEND. TEXAS WEATHER LIVES UP TO ITS MANTRA TODAY OF 'IF YOU DON'T
LIKE THE WEATHER NOW, JUST GIVE IT A FEW HOURS'. AFTER A DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S (NEAR 80 F OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA) AND DECENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING MOISTURE VALUES UP TO ABOVE 1.7 INCH PWATS,
A PASSING LATE DAY INTO EVENING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DRIVE
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE VALUES DOWN TO UNSEASONABLE STANDARDS.

THIS AGGRESSIVE FROPA WILL CREATE A 24 HOUR -30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL, ALMOST -50 DEGREE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL
IN JUST OVER A DAY! WHILE THE MAIN STORIES WITH THIS VERY COLD AND
DRY (SHALLOW) CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS ARE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND THE FRIGID CONDITIONS LEFT IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A SMALL CAVEAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR ELEVATED
ROADWAY/BRIDGE ICING CONCERNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LAY WITH THE OUT-OF-PHASE SCENARIO OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING/FALLING WITHIN A NEAR SURFACE LAYER COOLING
TO BELOW FREEZING, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT, IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IN THE EARLY TUESDAY (OVERNIGHT) MORNING
HOURS, THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SLEET OR SNOW FLURRIES THROWN INTO
THE MIX. IF THERE IS SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TONIGHT'S FRONT THAT GENERATES VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE PRE-
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING HOURS THEN THE SUB-FREEZING NEAR 1K FOOT (IN
DEPTH) LAYER JUST ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE DRYING LAYER WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO TURN SOME PRECIPITATION OVER TO FROZEN, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
SOME UPPER LAYER SEEDING IN PLAY AS THE SATURATED UP TO JET LEVEL
JUST-AFTER-MIDNIGHT FAR NORTHERN PROG SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

AGAIN, IT WILL BE A TIMING ISSUE AS, IF THERE 'IS' PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING UP NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN THE ODDS OF A FROZEN
MIX ARE MODERATELY HIGH. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR MORE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TRAVEL. AS THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS INTO THE
METRO AREA THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOUR, ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
PREVIOUS LIGHT RAIN COULD FREEZE ALONG ELEVATED ROADWAYS OR BRIDGES.
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT, WITH THIS COUPLED THREAT OF STRONG BUFFETING
NORTHERLIES AND AN UPPER ROADWAY/BRIDGE BLACK ICING SITUATION,
TUESDAY AM TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSIDER DRIVING WITH THAT EXTRA BIT OF
CAUTION.


THIS IS THE TIME TO BREAK OUT THAT (SE TX) WINTER CLOTHING AS AFTER
A TUESDAY MORNING IN THE CHILLED LOWER 30S (NORTH) / LOWER 40S
(COAST) THE AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE
FACE OF EFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION, STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
THINNING CLOUD COVER. 31


&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
BRING OUR AREA IT'S COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN COLDER, AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. IF FUTURE SHIFTS DO
NOT WARM THESE NUMBERS BACK UP, HARD FREEZE WARNINGS NORTH (LOWER
TO MID 20S) AND FREEZE WARNINGS CENTRAL AND SOUTH (UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30) WILL BE NEEDED. RECORD LOWS THAT MIGHT BE IN JEOPARDY
OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN ON WEDNESDAY ARE 25 DEGREES (SET IN 1911)
FOR COLLEGE STATION, 29 DEGREES (SET IN 1907) FOR HOUSTON, 30
DEGREES (SET IN 1932) FOR HOUSTON HOBBY AND 35 DEGREES (SET IN 1911)
FOR GALVESTON.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES
(LOOKING TO SET UP HIGHER NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE AND LOWER INLAND)
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. COOL NIGHTS (NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES),
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYS AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
42
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:57 am

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A powerful early season arctic cold front will move across the area this evening.

Hard freeze and freeze warnings will likely be required for parts of the area for Wednesday morning

Potential for a brief period of sleet/snow mixed with rain early Tuesday morning mainly north of HWY 105

Arctic cold front is moving through the TX panhandle and will blast off the TX coast later today and early this evening. Temperatures behind this front are very cold from early November across the central plains while ahead of the boundary southerly flow will bring a continued warm and humid air mass into the region today. Increasing moisture and lift along the boundary will produce increasing rain chances by this afternoon that will linger into tonight and early Tuesday morning before the much drier air mass associated with the large arctic high pressure cells moves over the region.

Expect mostly showers with the front later this afternoon into the evening hours as instability is generally lacking over the area. Light rain and moisture will linger into Tuesday morning and this will overlap a few hours with the very cold incoming air mass. Freezing line will advect southward this evening and likely reach HWY 105 by early Tuesday morning and possibly as far south as I-10 west of Houston around Columbus. Some models show the moisture lingering just long enough to produce a few ice pellets or snow flurries late tonight where the colder air entrains with the moisture. This is a fairly low probability and at this time do not expect any travel impacts in the metro area. North of HWY 105, sub freezing surface temperatures late tonight may result in any residual water left on any bridge or overpass freezing.

Temperatures will fall rapidly from the 60’s and 70’s this afternoon to the 30’s and even a few upper 20’s (up north) by Tuesday morning. N winds of 25-35mph will drive wind chills into the 10’s and 20’s for Tuesday morning. Winds along the coast will likely gust over 40mph tonight into Tuesday with Gale Warnings in effect for all of the coastal waters. Small craft should be in port by this evening and remain in port until late Tuesday as conditions in the waters will become dangerous. While skies will clear on Tuesday morning, deep arctic high pressure dome and continued cold air advection will result in most areas only reaching the mid to upper 40’s on Tuesday afternoon. With clear skies and light winds on Tuesday night, temperatures will fall rapidly into the 20’s for much of the region. Freezing temperatures are likely all the way to the coastal counties with a hard freeze possible north of HWY 105. Cold weather protection measures should be enacted for this upcoming freeze.

A southern stream short wave will move over S TX and the Gulf waters late Wednesday into Thursday with increasing clouds and rain chances especially along the coast. Overall rainfall will be fairly light with somewhat limited moisture with this feature.

Clearing and cool Friday into the weekend with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:32 am

The 12Z mesoscale models have been trending a bit more bullish with the possibility of a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain). Folks in the Hill Country and around Bryan/College Station need to be aware.
11112019 12Z 17 12K NAM namconus_ref_frzn_scus_17.png
11112019 12Z 18 12K NAM namconus_ref_frzn_scus_18.png
11112019 12Z 19 12K NAM namconus_ref_frzn_scus_19.png
11112019 12Z 20 12K NAM namconus_ref_frzn_scus_20.png
11112019 12X 21 12K NAM namconus_ref_frzn_scus_21.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by BlueJay » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:58 am

I trust this site for my weather forecasts.

Alexa says that Conroe's temperature tomorrow morning will be 41F. :?

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:15 am

Judging by observations in the Metroplex, temperatures rapidly fall by at least 20 degrees in a matter of several minutes as the Arctic Front passes with winds quickly gusting 40 to 50 MPH. That my friends is a blue norther!
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