November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

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harp
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by harp » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm

18Z GFS coming in not as cold.

Cpv17
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:06 pm

harp wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm
18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by harp » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:09 pm

I'll let the experts answer that one.

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Andrew » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:06 pm
harp wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm
18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?
GFS isn't showing a direct hit with the cold air like it was earlier this week. A lot of the coldest air doesn't make it as far south before shifting east. Models sometimes are a little too aggressive with pushing cold air like this east. I wouldn't be surprised if models shift a little west this weekend. Either way, I think most of the region will be under a threat for a freeze (of course depending on how much skies clear out).
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:59 pm

Andrew wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:49 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:06 pm
harp wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm
18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?
GFS isn't showing a direct hit with the cold air like it was earlier this week. A lot of the coldest air doesn't make it as far south before shifting east. Models sometimes are a little too aggressive with pushing cold air like this east. I wouldn't be surprised if models shift a little west this weekend. Either way, I think most of the region will be under a threat for a freeze (of course depending on how much skies clear out).
Why do the models tend to lose the cold air in the middle range only to bring it back in the short?

harp
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by harp » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:12 pm

We'll see if it shifts back in future runs. I know we are expecting a freeze here in SE Louisiana. I just hope we don't shoot all of our winter bullets in November like last year.

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by jasons2k » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:04 pm

Latest NWS forecast has a low of 37 for me Saturday morning. I’m going to skip the Imperial Oaks 5k this year. Forget that business!! No way I’m standing around waiting to run a race with temps in the 30’s!!

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Katdaddy » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:02 am

Temps in the 50s across most of SE TX this morning with some patches of drizzle and light rain. Clouds will persist today high temps will remain mostly in the 50s. A nice weekend with clearing skies will be followed by a strong cold front next Monday.
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Re: November 2019: Dreary WX/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:41 am

I am not sure we will see the clouds break anytime soon. We have a very noisy split flow developing and an active convective pattern in the Eastern Pacific. A strengthening Upper Low near the Baja is spitting impulses across Mexico into Texas. Spits of rain today appear likely for some. Clouds look to linger throughout the weekend with a warming trend beginning tomorrow. Sunday night into Monday could bring another round of heavy rainfall to our area.

Regarding the next shot of chilly Arctic air, I see the ensembles are insisting we bottom out to the upper 20's along and just S of the I-10 Corridor with near freezing temperatures along the Coastal tier of Counties for Wednesday morning. I also am noticing the cutoff Baja Upper Low is meandering closer to Texas and is much stronger or deeper than the guidance has been suggesting. That suggests to me the upglide lift behind the Arctic Front Monday may be much stronger than previously expected and throws a proverbial curveball in what our sensible weather may bring for Monday night into Tuesday. While it is always a race to have deep enough cold air in place and enough moisture to work with for any chance of wintry mischief, our Hill Country neighbors may have a chance, albeit rather small at this time.
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Re: November 2019: Dreary WX/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Kingwood36 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:34 am

So you are saying that there is a non zero chance fir something frozen to fall from the sky next mon or tue?

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