November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:31 am

Next week looks awesome! Lets keep pumping the GOA ridge.
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snowman65
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by snowman65 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:42 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:31 am
Next week looks awesome! Lets keep pumping the GOA ridge.
The rest of the month looks awesomer and awesomer...

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tireman4
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by tireman4 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:03 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061800
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions should prevail through the first half of the TAF
package before ceilings lower to MVFR/IFR criteria by the early
morning hours. Ceilings should remain low through most of tomorrow
out ahead of the next frontal passage. Could also see some
isolated patchy fog during the overnight hours. The cold front
looks to arrive across our northern terminals just outside this
current TAF period, but showers and some isolated thunderstorms
ahead of the main wind shift cannot be ruled out. More widespread
coverage of precipitation will be possible tomorrow afternoon.
Therefore, winds should remain light and variable tonight, before
turning back onshore shortly after sunrise. Winds behind the
front will be out of the north between 15 to 20 knots and gusty at
times late tomorrow afternoon.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 953 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019/...
Minor tweaks to the short term portion of the forecast this
morning to account for trends in cloud cover, temperature and
dew point observations. High temperatures should rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s area wide today, under mostly clear skies.
Winds remain out of the east southeast, helping to keep drier air
in place over Southeast Texas. Only other tweak to the forecast
was to speed up the front a bit Thursday afternoon into the
evening hours. Short term guidance such as the ARW, NMM, and the
Texas Tech WRF show the wind shift reaching our northern zones
from Burleson to Houston County around noon Thursday, and hitting
the coast by the early evening hours.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 61 74 48 57 40 / 0 80 40 20 0
Houston (IAH) 63 77 51 58 43 / 10 80 60 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 76 55 61 51 / 10 80 90 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:24 pm

The 12Z ECMWF turned dramatically colder this run. The European drops a 1045mb Artic High into the Texas Panhandle Monday night. The Euro and GFS suggest we may see widespread freezing temperatures early to mid next for morning lows. It is awfully early to see temperatures that chilly in early/mid November around these parts.
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ecmwf_T850a_namer_7.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by harp » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:48 pm

Srain, you still thinking a spin up low possible? Trough looks pretty amplified.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:31 pm

harp wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:48 pm
Srain, you still thinking a spin up low possible? Trough looks pretty amplified.
There appears to be a noisy sub tropical jet with a possibility of a Baja upper low sometime next week. That upper trough looks to hang around overhead into the extended range. I see the top analog for the Day 8+ Super Ensemble from the CPC is 1976. That was a brutally cold winter across the Plains and on East. It also was the year of a snow drought across the Southern/Central Rockies.
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by harp » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:36 pm

Thank you for your response.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by harp » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:37 pm

I'm just having a hard time taking this seriously because it's so early.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:45 pm

It's certainly early to see that kind of cold, but the Climate Prediction Center in their just Updated Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest the potentially chilly and unsettled weather may stick around for awhile.
610temp.new(28).gif
11062019 CPC 610prcp_new.gif
814temp.new(21).gif
814prcp.new(12).gif
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:22 pm

I did a quick research of my saved images after hearing some folks say that 2014 may be a good analog. This is what I found...
Attachments
11072014 CPC Day 8+ 610temp_new.gif
11072014 CPC Day 8+ 610prcp_new.gif
11072014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif
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