November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:17 am

Finally had a chance to glance at some guidance for the busy Thanksgiving Holiday travel period. It appears we are in a highly amplified weather regime with storm systems emerging out of the Desert SW and the Eastern Pacific every couple of days. Looks like a chance of rain Wednesday in SE Texas, but hopefully that is out of our hair for Thanksgiving Day. A much bigger storm system look to be on tap during the weekend and could bring some significant traveling issues for those returning from Grandma's house.

My sensible weather here in the Smokey Mountains looks wet every couple of days followed by seasonal temperatures (50's for highs and upper 20's to near 30's for lows) and sunshine. Extended forecast does call for snow Sunday night and a week from today with very cold temperatures following the big weekend storm system.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:43 am

Thanks for keeping us updated back here in houston srain! We appreciate ya!

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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by snowman65 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:11 pm

true....
Attachments
Screenshot_20191125-123759~2.png

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:28 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:59 am
Good morning all. Our movers arrived early Friday morning and they completed unloading as well as setting up our furniture before moderate rain set in late in the afternoon. Yesterday was a chilly rainy day perfect for unpacking boxes and creating a bit of normalcy in our lives as well as the pets. No internet yet, but I will check in from time to time from Haywood County.

Maggie Valley. Great area close to the Cherokee nation. Knew a couple of folks from Waynesville back in the day.

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:30 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:11 am
Its still fall...we havent used all of our winter yet lol..yall need to chill
I think that's the point. :lol:

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tireman4
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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:39 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261153
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

.AVIATION...
Ceilings have generally fallen to MVFR early this morning with a
mix of MVFR/IFR over western TAF sites. Winds should increase this
morning and ceilings should begin to mix out between 15-17z.
Expecting VFR ceilings this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS and
HRRR look too pessimistic with ceilings today. PW values also
increase in a WAA pattern so there could be some spotty light rain
but when and where are problematic. Not enough confidence wrt
timing/location to mention precip in the TAFs. A cold front will
cross the area tonight. Could get some showers along this feature
as the front nears the coast. There is some potential for sea fog
near the coast until the front clears the area around 10z. KGLS
visibility has been fluctuating between 2 and 5 miles for most of
the night and this will probably continue. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...

Southwesterly flow will continue today ahead of an upper level low
that is located over the Great Basin this morning. Expect the mostly
cloudy skies to continue today as PWATs increase to 1.5 to 1.7
inches. There may be an isolated shower or two this afternoon, but
short term guidance has really pulled back on the activity. NAM Nest
and NMM have some light showers popping up near the coast and east
of I45 by the late afternoon, while the HRRR and ARW just have some
coastal showers. The main story this afternoon is just how warm
is it going to get with this strong southwesterly flow. Much of
the area will be reaching into the upper 70s, while Houston and
areas south and west of Houston could reach into the low 80s.
Record highs today are in the mid to upper 80s, so don`t think we
will be breaking any records.

The cold front from the above mentioned low pressure system will
push through the area tonight reaching College Station around 11pm,
then Houston around 2am, and then finally the coast shortly
around 5am. With the abundant atmospheric moisture, expect an
increase shower activity with the FROPA, especially in the coastal
counties as per the Texas Tech WRF. Wednesday (and only
Wednesday) will be a reprieve from the unseasonably warm
temperatures we have been seeing as high temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler than today. So actually around normal.
Skies will remain partly cloudy through the day, but not as cloudy
as today.

Traveling to or through Southeast Texas on Wednesday for
Thanksgiving? Well, good news cause there really shouldn`t be any
weather related impacts in southeast Texas. Flying to the Pacific
Northwest or to the Northeast? There you might run into some
delays. The low pressure system the will be impacting us tonight
will be out over the Great Lakes on Wednesday as another large
upper level low drops down over the Pacific Northwest. Please go
to the forecast from the local NWS office of the place you are
visiting for the most up to date forecast.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Expect moist southeasterly flow bringing mostly cloudy skies
during the day on Thanksgiving that will be continuing into the
day on Friday. There will be a chance of isolated showers during
the afternoon on Thanksgiving, but its looking like coverage will
be limited to mainly west and north of Houston. PWATs increase to
1.75 to 2 inches on Friday bringing a better chance of showers
with a return of high temperatures into the upper 70s. The cold
front associated with the low pressure system that was over the
Pacific Northwest mentioned in the short term discussion will move
through Southeast Texas sometime on Saturday. The GFS has the
frontal passage about around noon on Saturday, while the EC is
about 12 hours later. Surface high pressure builds on Sunday
giving us our first mostly sunny day of the forecast package with
a return to near normal temperatures. The near normal to slightly
below normal temperatures will continue into the first work week
of December with temperatures warming a bit by midweek.

Fowler

MARINE...

Dew points in the lower 70`s are moving over water temperatures in
the mid 60`s and this difference is enough to generate some light
sea fog this morning. Visibility is between 3 and 5 miles over the
near shore waters and SREF guidance is suggesting that patchy fog
will linger much of the day into tonight.

Will maintain the SCEC for over the offshore waters as a
moderate/strong onshore flow persists through mid day. The gradient
begins to relax this afternoon and winds will begin to decrease
after 21z. Winds will relax further and veer to the southwest
tonight as a cold front approaches the coastal waters. The front
should push off the coast just before daybreak Wednesday with
moderate to strong northeast winds in its wake. Winds will gradually
veer to the east Wed night and eventually to the southeast on Thurs
as a coastal trof develops offshore then moves inland. Moderate
southeast flow then prevails into Sat until the next front pushes
off the coast Sat night or Sunday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 53 63 54 71 / 10 20 10 30 60
Houston (IAH) 81 59 66 57 73 / 20 40 10 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 75 63 66 62 71 / 30 50 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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srainhoutx
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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:41 am

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Active pattern across the US this week with several storm systems…although local impacts will be fairly minor

Current storm system developing across the central plains this morning has induced southerly low level flow across eastern TX and return of a warm/humid air mass. Could see a few showers today and very warm with afternoon highs near 80. A cold front associated with this system will move across the area tonight producing a line of showers and thunderstorms…especially SE of US 59 where best moisture will be pooling by this evening. Skies will become partly cloudy on Wednesday and cooler (by 10-15 degrees over today) as the front pushes into the offshore waters.

Next storm system approaches later this week and induces moisture return over top of the cool air mass on Thursday morning. Clouds will thicken and lower Wednesday night into Thursday morning and as a coastal trough forms on Thursday light rain and showers will be possible over the region. Surface warm front will advance from the coastal waters Thursday morning northward across the area into Thursday night with temperatures warming into the 70’s south of this boundary. North of the boundary temperatures on Thursday will be cool in the 60’s and 50’s with light rain and drizzle. As with most warm frontal passages the weather on Thursday will be gloomy.

Entire region will become warm sectored into Friday with strong warm air advection in place and good moisture transport off the western Gulf. Weak disturbances aloft in the SW flow will likely enhance showers as they pass across the region Thursday night-Friday night. Next cold front approaches the area Saturday afternoon. Dynamics aloft are strong with this system and surface moisture pools over the area, but portions…especially SW…could be capped by a warm layer of air aloft preventing surface parcels from developing into thunderstorms. If storms are able to develop and break through the capping, a few could become strong to severe on Saturday. Much colder Canadian air mass enters the region late Saturday behind the front with lows by Monday morning into the 30’s and highs Sunday and Monday in the 50’s and 60’s.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by jasons2k » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:45 am

This weather feels fantastic. I talked to our security guard this morning and she told me she is loving this weather.

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:20 pm

After a few days of nice weather - The Dewpoint is in the upper 60s. In late November? YUCK. Had to run a little A/C.

This is one of the changes I've noticed in 28 years in Texas. Never saw DPs near 70°F close to Thanksgiving until the last 5-6 years.

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Re: November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by BlueJay » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:24 pm

I'm wishing everyone a happy and safe Thanksgiving!

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