November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by snowman65 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:18 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:15 am
Good morning from the Great Smokey Mountains!
Where bouts? We owned property and have family out that way (middle Tennesee (Cookeville area). Love it out there.

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by cperk » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:26 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:15 am
Good morning from the Great Smokey Mountains!
That is a beautiful scene you have to be excited about your new adventure.

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:03 pm

The end of the 12z GFS has a 1067 mb high in the Yukon pushing south into British Columbia.

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:30 pm

Hope the cold comes back soon. It's hot and muggy outside again.

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:51 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

.AVIATION...
PW fields have begun to moisten and would expect to start seeing
some light showers develop over mainly western TAF sites. Ceilings
will remain a mix of MVFR/VFR transitioning to VFR ceilings this
afternoon and early evening before falling back to MVFR cigs
tonight as moisture deepens beneath a deepening cap. The moist
axis shifts east tonight into Thursday and showers look to
increase in coverage over central TAF sites late tonight and
Thursday. A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings expected on Thursday. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
12z soundings support temps in the mid 80`s today but clouds and
mixing from stronger winds will like likely temper the temperature
rise. Still, considering the warm start and lack of cloud cover
over the southern half of the area, have raised temps a few
degrees. Tweaked winds a bit as well as the gradient tightens and
winds will increase this afternoon. NAM12 is more aggressive with
moisture but satellite derived PW fields seem to support the drier
GFS. PoP fcst looks ok with just a slight chance of showers
today.

43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...

Another foggy start is expected across SE TX this morning, but
given the slight increase of winds just above the surface, the
visibilities may not be as low as yesterday. As the patchy fog
dissipates by mid morning, we`ll likely see another warm after-
noon with highs climbing back into the upper 70s/around 80 for
most (inland) locations...lower/mid 70s at the coast. Humidity
levels will also begin increasing in earnest today as the S/SE
flow becomes more established and strengthens through tonight.
This tightened pressure gradient (in response to the storm sys-
tem deepening over the Central Plains) should keep a moderate/
strong warm moist flow over the CWA tonight. The corresponding
increase of dewpoints/Gulf moisture could be enough for the de-
velopment of patchy sea fog over the bays/along the coast, and
isolated WAA-type showers tonight through early Thurs morning.
Further inland, the increased POPs across our northern tier of
counties overnight and Thurs will be due to the proximity of a
cold front being dragged south via the system over the Plains.
Thurs should remain on the warm/humid side, but tempered by an
increase of clouds. 41

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...

The main issue for this forecast remains the timing of this next
cold front. Models still agree (roughly) with its passage across
SE TX on Fri during the day and at the coast around sunset (plus
or minus 3hrs with the 00Z runs). SPC currently pinging portions
of the CWA with Marginal Risk for severe weather (Day3), and not
much disagreement at this time given the progs of good shear but
limited instability. Most of the CWA should see some decent rain
with this system as PWs top off around 1.8-1.9".

Cooler/dry weather on tap for the weekend as the front moves off
the coast and its associated upper low tracks further NE. Models
remain in somewhat decent agreement with the timing of the front
next Tues/Tues night, but still seem to be at odds with things a-
loft for later in the week. Stay tuned! 41

MARINE...
Strengthening onshore flow will be the hallmark of the weather today
for the Upper Texas Coastal Waters. Seas will be steadily building
today and have hoisted SCEC flags for the Gulf waters this afternoon
and an SCA flag for the Gulf Waters tonight. Winds should peak at 15
to 20 knots with gusts of 20 to 27 knots tonight and seas of 5-7
feet should be common well offshore. Winds and seas slowly
diminishing Thursday as gradient relaxes and entrance region to the
low level jet retreats inland. A few spotty showers today across the
waters then waning tonight. A round of showers and thunderstorms
should precede the cold front starting Friday morning with winds
increasing again. The cold front should move across the coastal
waters late Friday afternoon or more likely Friday evening. SCA
conditions developing again in the wake of the front and lingering
through Saturday afternoon.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 79 65 75 46 / 20 40 30 70 20
Houston (IAH) 67 78 68 77 50 / 10 20 20 90 50
Galveston (GLS) 69 74 68 75 54 / 10 20 20 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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snowman65
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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by snowman65 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:27 am

According to the GFS, the second week of December is starting to look interesting.....if it holds...

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:52 am

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:27 am
According to the GFS, the second week of December is starting to look interesting.....if it holds...
Yes. It has big hp’s building up in NW Canada and Alaska which is our source region.

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:48 am

590
FXUS64 KHGX 211126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Warm, humid and breezy weather to prevail across SE TX today. Rain
chances will also be in the increase, especially for the W/NW por-
tions of the CWFA this morning and afternoon with the approach and
passage of a strong jet max/embedded shortwave in the flow aloft.
But despite the increase of of showers (and maybe an isolated TSRA
or two) this afternoon, temperatures should be warming back to the
lower 80s once again (a few degrees higher than MOS guidance which
been running a bit cool of late). Lows tonight will continue to be
well above seasonal normals (mid/upper 60s). Models are still tim-
ing the initial push of the next cold front into SE TX around noon
Fri and then slowly moving it off the coast by early evening. POPs
will remain high for its passage given the widespread elevated PWs
(1.5-1.9") and the strong forcing along the front itself. However,
it should be noted that SPC is keeping portions of the CWA under a
Marginal Risk (Day 2) for severe weather. Progs of strong vertical
shear and a somewhat favorable jet dynamics aloft appear to be off
set by the weak thermodynamic environment. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday/Thanksgiving]...
Showers/isolated thunderstorms and clouds associated with the cold
front will be clearing out to the E/SE Fri night. Cooler/drier air
should be settling into the region for the weekend. As the associ-
ated high moves off to the E, onshore winds are expected to return
to the area Mon. The passage of the warm front back into SE TX Mon
night should enough for the return of some low POPs as well. These
rain chances will likely persist into Tue with the approach of the
next cold front into the region. This boundary then looks to stall
over the CWA on Weds...perhaps acting as a weak focus as the upper
pattern becomes more favorable for passing disturbances aloft. The
deepening longwave upper trof out west will then help to draw this
boundary back north as low-level moisture returns via the strong S
and SE winds. And so by Thanksgiving, we could be looking at warm/
humid conditions with low POPs persisting. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Band of MVFR ceilings from near SGR to IAH to CLL-UTS with some
very light precip (-L/-RA) that appears to be waning slowly.
Expect that the northern TAF sites will be the slowest to improve
out of MVFR this morning. By late morning VFR ceilings should
prevail across the region. Southerly winds increasing again this
afternoon with LLJ over the area but surface winds should not be
nearly as strong as yesterday. In the evening hours expect lower
stratus deck to return and lower after 06z with IFR ceilings
likely at most sites 06-09z. Cold front nears CLL Friday morning
around 14z and IAH around 21z. 45

&&

.MARINE...
15-20kt onshore flow will continue this morning gradually relaxing
late this morning and afternoon. Seas of 6-8 feet well offshore and
4-5 feet nearshore should also be subsiding today as well. Have
extended the SCA for the 20-60nm waters through noon and then will
have an afternoon of SCEC conditions with the lowering seas. A few
showers/patchy light rain will be possible today. The focus shifts
to the arrival of the cold front Friday late afternoon across the
Bays and then into the Coastal Waters in the evening. Winds should
ramp up with moderate cold advection and building seas. SCA
conditions look likely for the Gulf and SCEC briefly for the Bays.
High pressure rapidly expands across the area Saturday and offshore
flow relaxes down to around 10 knots or less Saturday night. High
pressure moves off and onshore flow takes hold Sunday night into
Monday stalling the frontal boundary over the Central Gulf
undergoing strong frontolysis. Warm front (diffuse) drifts back
north through the area and could potentially see some patchy sea fog
Tuesday morning-Wednesday but confidence isn`t very high yet given
the differences in the models depiction of the low level
pattern...suffice it to say unsettled will be the outlook for the
pre-Turkey day period.

On a different note...Tropical Storm Sebastien in the west central
Atlantic looking more impressive this morning and NHC indicating
that it may become a hurricane this afternoon over overnight Friday
morning. Development of a hurricane this late in the season is
fairly rare. No impacts for the Gulf with Sebastien.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 65 73 46 66 / 40 30 60 10 0
Houston (IAH) 81 68 79 51 67 / 10 20 70 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 68 77 56 66 / 10 20 70 50 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from noon CST today through
this afternoon for the following zones: Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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snowman65
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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by snowman65 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:19 pm

Thanksgiving weather is looking like...well.....#!#*#!....

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Re: November 2019: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:35 pm

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:19 pm
Thanksgiving weather is looking like...well.....#!#*#!....
Cold weather doesn’t look to return till the first or second week of December.

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