November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

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tireman4
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by tireman4 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:16 pm

From North Fort Worth Observer....

This is one of the most impressive fronts I recall in awhile. Clouds posted online look mean.

My home weather station shows an immediate DIVE in temps at 9:44. Down from 65 to now 46.

It also shows sustained 17 mph winds, when even in strong winds it usually only shows 10 or so due to the close neighborhood houses. That means it has to be really windy out there...

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:44 pm

stormlover wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:04 pm
Srain, could this happen ??


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11112&fh=6
Doubt it...but its nice to look at!

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by TexasBreeze » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:45 pm

They did add sleet to the northern inland half of the forecast area. The sharp dropoff in temps is amazing and it is moving quick too...

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:55 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:44 pm
stormlover wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:04 pm
Srain, could this happen ??


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11112&fh=6
Doubt it...but its nice to look at!
There's going to be major overrun over the arctic air, so sleet, freezing rain, wintry mix on exposed surfaces is possible late tonight. Hill Country, south Texas, up to CLL. Depends how the column cools with precip and DP. The air *may* be too dry NE of La Grange based upon the soundings...we'll see.

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:59 pm

Update from the NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRUCK SOUTH NOW PUSHING THROUGH TEMPLE AS
OF 1130AM. LATEST HRRR RUN AT 16Z LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. LATEST 12Z WRF
AND NAM RUNS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE TRENDS AS WELL. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. OVERALL TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS HRRR RUNS
HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE TIMING. WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT THE FRONT REACHING KCLL AROUND 2PM, HOUSTON 3-4PM AND OFF THE
COAST FOR GALVESTON AROUND 6PM.

AFTER DOING SOME CAREFUL ANALYSIS, WE DID UPDATE TIMING/LOCATION
OF ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP. UNDERSTAND THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET WITH RAIN FALLING THROUGH A
2500-3000FT SUB FREEZING LAYER THAT COULD REFREEZE AS SLEET.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME WHERE IN THAT 05Z TO 10Z
TUESDAY TIME FRAME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SLEET. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS
FROM THE SLEET EITHER AS IT WILL BE A SHORT TIME FRAME FOR ITS
OCCURRENCE AND LIKELY TO BE WITH AN AREA FROM COLUMBUS TO COLLEGE
STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO MAYBE LIVINGSTON BACK DOWN TOWARDS
CONROE TO KATY BACK TO COLUMBUS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH FRONTOGENESIS, ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 850MB
FRONT TO SUPPORT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THE REAL QUESTION MARK
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR AT 850 TO 700MB MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THAT WILL BE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GETTING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET
OR NOTHING AT ALL. THIS IS A REALLY MARGINAL EVENT BUT ENOUGH TO
AT LEAST PUT IN THE FORECAST. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY AT
ALL.

OVERPECK
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:01 pm

BlueJay wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:58 am
I trust this site for my weather forecasts.

Alexa says that Conroe's temperature tomorrow morning will be 41F. :?
Only 10°F off! :lol:

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:04 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:59 pm
Update from the NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRUCK SOUTH NOW PUSHING THROUGH TEMPLE AS
OF 1130AM. LATEST HRRR RUN AT 16Z LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. LATEST 12Z WRF
AND NAM RUNS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE TRENDS AS WELL. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. OVERALL TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS HRRR RUNS
HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE TIMING. WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT THE FRONT REACHING KCLL AROUND 2PM, HOUSTON 3-4PM AND OFF THE
COAST FOR GALVESTON AROUND 6PM.

AFTER DOING SOME CAREFUL ANALYSIS, WE DID UPDATE TIMING/LOCATION
OF ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP. UNDERSTAND THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET WITH RAIN FALLING THROUGH A
2500-3000FT SUB FREEZING LAYER THAT COULD REFREEZE AS SLEET.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME WHERE IN THAT 05Z TO 10Z
TUESDAY TIME FRAME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SLEET. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS
FROM THE SLEET EITHER AS IT WILL BE A SHORT TIME FRAME FOR ITS
OCCURRENCE AND LIKELY TO BE WITH AN AREA FROM COLUMBUS TO COLLEGE
STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO MAYBE LIVINGSTON BACK DOWN TOWARDS
CONROE TO KATY BACK TO COLUMBUS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH FRONTOGENESIS, ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 850MB
FRONT TO SUPPORT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THE REAL QUESTION MARK
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR AT 850 TO 700MB MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THAT WILL BE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GETTING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET
OR NOTHING AT ALL. THIS IS A REALLY MARGINAL EVENT BUT ENOUGH TO
AT LEAST PUT IN THE FORECAST. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY AT
ALL.

OVERPECK
haha . Mr. Overpeck read my mind!

THE REAL QUESTION MARK
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR AT 850 TO 700MB MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THAT WILL BE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GETTING A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET
OR NOTHING AT ALL.


In the wee hours - a definite maybe!


summer/winter/summer/winter - hope you're enjoying the rollercoaster!

Kingwood36
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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

There is a chance....thats all we can ask for! Would the moisture be confined more towards the coast like it nornally us?

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Re: November 2019: Comfortably Cool Weekend/Strong Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by jasons2k » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:11 pm

I took my boys to play tennis this morning. It felt great. My youngest said “Dad, this is perfect weather to play tennis!” We were out there for almost two hours. We’re making the most of it while it lasts. It’ll be too windy to cover the plants until tomorrow evening. I’m sure it’s gonna feel miserable outside doing the freeze preps.

Maybe we will get lucky and see a couple of sleet pellets, but honestly, I just don’t get very excited about that anymore, unless it snows. I am gonna make some soup though and burn a fire - that’ll be nice - indoors.

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