November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
harp
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18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
Cpv17
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harp wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm 18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?
harp
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I'll let the experts answer that one.
Andrew
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:06 pm
harp wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm 18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?
GFS isn't showing a direct hit with the cold air like it was earlier this week. A lot of the coldest air doesn't make it as far south before shifting east. Models sometimes are a little too aggressive with pushing cold air like this east. I wouldn't be surprised if models shift a little west this weekend. Either way, I think most of the region will be under a threat for a freeze (of course depending on how much skies clear out).
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Cpv17
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Andrew wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:49 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:06 pm
harp wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:55 pm 18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?
GFS isn't showing a direct hit with the cold air like it was earlier this week. A lot of the coldest air doesn't make it as far south before shifting east. Models sometimes are a little too aggressive with pushing cold air like this east. I wouldn't be surprised if models shift a little west this weekend. Either way, I think most of the region will be under a threat for a freeze (of course depending on how much skies clear out).
Why do the models tend to lose the cold air in the middle range only to bring it back in the short?
harp
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We'll see if it shifts back in future runs. I know we are expecting a freeze here in SE Louisiana. I just hope we don't shoot all of our winter bullets in November like last year.
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jasons2k
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Latest NWS forecast has a low of 37 for me Saturday morning. I’m going to skip the Imperial Oaks 5k this year. Forget that business!! No way I’m standing around waiting to run a race with temps in the 30’s!!
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Temps in the 50s across most of SE TX this morning with some patches of drizzle and light rain. Clouds will persist today high temps will remain mostly in the 50s. A nice weekend with clearing skies will be followed by a strong cold front next Monday.
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srainhoutx
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I am not sure we will see the clouds break anytime soon. We have a very noisy split flow developing and an active convective pattern in the Eastern Pacific. A strengthening Upper Low near the Baja is spitting impulses across Mexico into Texas. Spits of rain today appear likely for some. Clouds look to linger throughout the weekend with a warming trend beginning tomorrow. Sunday night into Monday could bring another round of heavy rainfall to our area.

Regarding the next shot of chilly Arctic air, I see the ensembles are insisting we bottom out to the upper 20's along and just S of the I-10 Corridor with near freezing temperatures along the Coastal tier of Counties for Wednesday morning. I also am noticing the cutoff Baja Upper Low is meandering closer to Texas and is much stronger or deeper than the guidance has been suggesting. That suggests to me the upglide lift behind the Arctic Front Monday may be much stronger than previously expected and throws a proverbial curveball in what our sensible weather may bring for Monday night into Tuesday. While it is always a race to have deep enough cold air in place and enough moisture to work with for any chance of wintry mischief, our Hill Country neighbors may have a chance, albeit rather small at this time.
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Kingwood36
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So you are saying that there is a non zero chance fir something frozen to fall from the sky next mon or tue?
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:04 pm Latest NWS forecast has a low of 37 for me Saturday morning. I’m going to skip the Imperial Oaks 5k this year. Forget that business!! No way I’m standing around waiting to run a race with temps in the 30’s!!
Heh, my wife and I used to run those, but a couple of 5Ks in cold weather put a stop to that nonesense! The final nail in that coffin was a Turkey Trot 5K out in Katy that was run in 40-something-degree weather with a stiff north wind. The run to the finish was into the wind. We both said "No more!" by while sitting in the car with the heat on full hot and full blower.

Some started the race in shorts and tanks. :shock:
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mcheer23
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A mix of Rain and Snow has entered the forecast in Austin and San Antonio.
redneckweather
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Srain just said it is going to snow in Southeast, TX!!😀😎
Kingwood36
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redneckweather wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:31 am Srain just said it is going to snow in Southeast, TX!!😀😎
Ugh no he didnt...
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tireman4
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567
FXUS64 KHGX 081753
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
A mix of LIFR to MVFR ceilings across the region this afternoon,
as pockets of light rain continues to fall over much of Southeast
Texas. Most of the rain is stretched along and I-10, continuing to
shift southward. We should begin to see ceilings rise to MVFR
criteria later this afternoon, and eventually rise to VFR by the
evening hours. Mostly high clouds should linger through the
overnight hours before clearing from northeast to southwest as
high pressure builds in. Winds are out of the north between 10 to
15 MPH this afternoon, and gusty along the coast. Wind speeds
should continue to lower tonight as the pressure gradient slackens
across the region.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 40 65 45 72 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 42 65 47 71 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 45 62 58 70 65 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CST this evening
through late tonight for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from
20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from
20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...08
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jasons2k
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Keep an eye on temps. for Tuesday night. I have a forecast low of 28. I’ll need to cover the tender plants. Chances for wintry precipitation look slim at this time.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:34 pm Keep an eye on temps. for Tuesday night. I have a forecast low of 28. I’ll need to cover the tender plants. Chances for wintry precipitation look slim at this time.
I’m expecting models to begin to turn colder with each passing run from now till Tuesday.
redneckweather
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Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:38 am
redneckweather wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:31 am Srain just said it is going to snow in Southeast, TX!!😀😎
Ugh no he didnt...
It was a joke. Haha 🤷‍♂️
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:50 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:34 pm Keep an eye on temps. for Tuesday night. I have a forecast low of 28. I’ll need to cover the tender plants. Chances for wintry precipitation look slim at this time.
I’m expecting models to begin to turn colder with each passing run from now till Tuesday.
NWS now says 30.
Kingwood36
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Boy it sure is dead in here
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