November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

[harp]

Since it's slow in here right now, I thought I would post this from Larry Cosgrove from a few minutes ago:

It is funny how a weather model can trigger a great memory.
When the forecast charts came in during early morning and around noon, it was evident that yet another stormy and cold sequence is coming to the U.S. For a moment in time I felt like the 22 year old version of Larry Cosgrove. Slightly sadistic, twisted smile. Outbursts of laughter. Friends messaging me saying, "DID YOU SEE THAT?"
Of course I did, a Rex block signal straddling the Arctic Circle from Alaska to the Davis Strait. A strong polar jet stream digging into California and ejecting two possibly strong winter storms through the lower 48 states. A chance for an Arctic intrusion around and after Thanksgiving.
I feel better than James Brown. And I remember the times when this type of weather pattern was common. namely 1976 - 1979. It was a magical time, and it taught me that loving bad weather is actually a good thing. Hence the Top 10 countdown from November 15, 1976, which got me going into media weather forecasting.
Kind of like a demented Casey Kasem, right? Ha Ha Ha Ha!

[DoctorMu]

https://youtu.be/co6WMzDOh1o

Chamber of Commerce weather today. Sunny, mild, hint of a breeze. Crystal blue skies.

The next front should arrive around Nov 22. Seasonal temps ahead.

[srainhoutx]

Our benign weather pattern looks to hold into mid week before a storm system ejects from the Desert SW bringing a chance for rain. Looking ahead into the extended range for the hectic Thanksgiving travel period, the ensembles a suggesting a big change in the upper air pattern. If those models are somewhat correct at that very long range, look for a Greenland Block and a deep trough developing across the Plains and a 'hint' of another cross Polar flow. Thanksgiving week could be stormy and chilly for a large portion of the Nation.

On a personal note, my travels begin in the morning to our new home. The weather looks good for traveling the next several days. I hope our Labrador (Allie), Miniature Dachshund (Liza), and two cats (Toby and Callie) are prepared for this move across the Country! I will post pictures after we arrive later this week. Cheers everyone!

[BlueJay]

Wishing a safe journey to the Srain family!

[Katdaddy]

Its a cool start to the morning across SE TX with temps mostly in the 40s. Lots of sun today with highs in the mid 70s. Expect the same for Tuesday.

[jasons2k]

The weather was beautiful in Austin over the weekend. Went for a run and then a nice long hike along the lake and Barton Springs - it was amazing. It’s a gorgeous day today. Looks like another fantastic day tomorrow. This is great for November! I love this time of year when the weather is just nice and pleasant - not too hot, not too cold. Just wonderful all around.

[nlosrgr8]

Safe Travels Srain! Look forward to reading your posts soon

[Ptarmigan]

The weather was beautiful in Austin over the weekend. Went for a run and then a nice long hike along the lake and Barton Springs - it was amazing. It’s a gorgeous day today. Looks like another fantastic day tomorrow. This is great for November! I love this time of year when the weather is just nice and pleasant - not too hot, not too cold. Just wonderful all around.

Great weather for starwatching with the telescope.

[GBinGrimes]

Great weather for starwatching with the telescope.
[/quote]

100 % correct. The sky is clear and, here in Grimes County as of a little bit ago, dark enough to see a magnificent star field.

Hot, cold, wet or dry, we here in Texas are blessed with differences in weather. Those who lament "boring days" just hold on a bit. Record cold already in November and we've yet to hit real winter. Amazing stuff.

Hello Orion's Belt!

[harp]

Orion is clearly visible! Beautiful!

[Katdaddy]

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the Upper TX Coast including the Houston-Galveston areas. The fog will burn off this morning resulting in another beautiful sunny day with highs in the mid to upper 70s across SE TX.

[Cpv17]

The system next week before Thanksgiving looks to be a pretty big system, but it doesn’t look like right now it’ll be too much for southeast Texas. Looks like a central and north Texas event.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191758
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across SE Texas today. Mostly sunny
skies with FEW/SCT high clouds moving across the region this
afternoon. Winds will continue light and variable as surface high
pressure shift east-southeastward today. Low dewpoint spread
along with clear skies and calm to light winds could once again
set the stage for areas of patchy fog to develop across some areas
of the CWA tonight into early Wednesday morning. This could
result in brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions during this
period. Wednesday, stronger southerly wind flow expected as the
pressure gradient strengthens, along with an increase in cloud
coverage. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/

UPDATE...

Forecast continues on track; no changes were made the previous
issuance. Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the
local weather today, resulting in sunny skies and light variable
winds. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid 70s
areawide. Afternoon/evening, the high pressure will shift east-
southeastward along the Gulf coastal regions, allowing onshore
flow to return to the local area. Tonight, temperatures will
generally range in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another round of
patchy fog is expected to develop across portions of SE Texas
overnight through early Wednesday morning, possibly affecting the
morning commute. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 79 65 79 63 / 0 10 20 40 30
Houston (IAH) 60 77 66 78 65 / 0 10 10 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 65 73 67 74 65 / 0 10 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation...24

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty boring weather pattern setting up over the next couple weeks according to the CPC. Below normal precipitation and above normal temps.

[srainhoutx]

Greetings from Haywood County. We arrived safely this afternoon with fantastic travel weather during our 1000 mile drive and the mountains are gorgeous! It's sort of fitting that light rain and some wet snow flakes greeted us after sunset. Pictures coming soon.

[Ptarmigan]

100 % correct. The sky is clear and, here in Grimes County as of a little bit ago, dark enough to see a magnificent star field.

Hot, cold, wet or dry, we here in Texas are blessed with differences in weather. Those who lament "boring days" just hold on a bit. Record cold already in November and we've yet to hit real winter. Amazing stuff.

Hello Orion's Belt!

Orion is clearly visible! Beautiful!

I have seen the Orion Nebula with the telescope. Very spectacular, especially with a camera.

[harp]

Umm, don't look now, but the 0Z GFS dumps the arctic right down the Plains into Texas and Louisiana during the first few days of December.... it will likely be gone next run, but it's cool to look at.

[Katdaddy]

Clouds will continue to increase today with highs around 80F. Some light showers will be possible this afternoon. The warm weather continues until our next front Friday evening with showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds. The weekend will have lots of sun and highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Greetings from Haywood County. We arrived safely this afternoon with fantastic travel weather during our 1000 mile drive and the mountains are gorgeous! It's sort of fitting that light rain and some wet snow flakes greeted us after sunset. Pictures coming soon.

I won't be far from you this weekend. Heading to Athens, GA then Stone Mountain.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning from the Great Smokey Mountains!