November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook
18Z GFS coming in not as cold.
The front that’s coming in now I noticed had a hp of about 1043mb when crossing over the border. The GFS is showing a 1044mb hp now with next weeks front. Judging by that alone, shouldn’t temperatures be similar with next weeks front as the one now?
I'll let the experts answer that one.
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GFS isn't showing a direct hit with the cold air like it was earlier this week. A lot of the coldest air doesn't make it as far south before shifting east. Models sometimes are a little too aggressive with pushing cold air like this east. I wouldn't be surprised if models shift a little west this weekend. Either way, I think most of the region will be under a threat for a freeze (of course depending on how much skies clear out).
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Why do the models tend to lose the cold air in the middle range only to bring it back in the short?Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:49 pmGFS isn't showing a direct hit with the cold air like it was earlier this week. A lot of the coldest air doesn't make it as far south before shifting east. Models sometimes are a little too aggressive with pushing cold air like this east. I wouldn't be surprised if models shift a little west this weekend. Either way, I think most of the region will be under a threat for a freeze (of course depending on how much skies clear out).
We'll see if it shifts back in future runs. I know we are expecting a freeze here in SE Louisiana. I just hope we don't shoot all of our winter bullets in November like last year.
Latest NWS forecast has a low of 37 for me Saturday morning. I’m going to skip the Imperial Oaks 5k this year. Forget that business!! No way I’m standing around waiting to run a race with temps in the 30’s!!
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I am not sure we will see the clouds break anytime soon. We have a very noisy split flow developing and an active convective pattern in the Eastern Pacific. A strengthening Upper Low near the Baja is spitting impulses across Mexico into Texas. Spits of rain today appear likely for some. Clouds look to linger throughout the weekend with a warming trend beginning tomorrow. Sunday night into Monday could bring another round of heavy rainfall to our area.
Regarding the next shot of chilly Arctic air, I see the ensembles are insisting we bottom out to the upper 20's along and just S of the I-10 Corridor with near freezing temperatures along the Coastal tier of Counties for Wednesday morning. I also am noticing the cutoff Baja Upper Low is meandering closer to Texas and is much stronger or deeper than the guidance has been suggesting. That suggests to me the upglide lift behind the Arctic Front Monday may be much stronger than previously expected and throws a proverbial curveball in what our sensible weather may bring for Monday night into Tuesday. While it is always a race to have deep enough cold air in place and enough moisture to work with for any chance of wintry mischief, our Hill Country neighbors may have a chance, albeit rather small at this time.
Regarding the next shot of chilly Arctic air, I see the ensembles are insisting we bottom out to the upper 20's along and just S of the I-10 Corridor with near freezing temperatures along the Coastal tier of Counties for Wednesday morning. I also am noticing the cutoff Baja Upper Low is meandering closer to Texas and is much stronger or deeper than the guidance has been suggesting. That suggests to me the upglide lift behind the Arctic Front Monday may be much stronger than previously expected and throws a proverbial curveball in what our sensible weather may bring for Monday night into Tuesday. While it is always a race to have deep enough cold air in place and enough moisture to work with for any chance of wintry mischief, our Hill Country neighbors may have a chance, albeit rather small at this time.
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So you are saying that there is a non zero chance fir something frozen to fall from the sky next mon or tue?
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