November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

[Cromagnum]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

[Cpv17]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

I can deal with the heat just fine as long as I have plenty of cold water. However, I can’t deal with the cold. Also, I only get sick when temps change drastically from warm to cold. When the temps are steady and don’t ever really change, I never get sick.

[Ptarmigan]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

Same here. I will take the cold as well.

[Cpv17]

I’m not so sure it’ll get that cold tonight as forecasted. My temp has been holding steady at 37 degrees for two hours now.

[Cpv17]

Well now temps have started to drop pretty quickly here since my last post lol I guess the clouds started to clear.

[jasons2k]

Time to break out the Norwegian hand cream so my fingers don’t crack.

[Cromagnum]

We will see how cold it gets here. I was already suppose to be at 33 but holding fast at 39

[biggerbyte]

I just want to say goodbye to srainhoutx.
You will be missed by many.

Safe travels.

[Katdaddy]

Its cold morning across SE TX with most areas at or below freezing. Clouds will increase today with a chance of showers by this evening as an upper level low approaches TX. Tomorrow will be cold and wet with an 80% chance of rain and high temps in the 40s. Skies will clear Friday morning making way for a mostly sunny weekend with high in the low 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

[jasons2k]

My low this morning was 31. A lot better than 25! Thank you cloud blanket!!

[srainhoutx]

Upper Low just East of the Baja Peninsula is on the move toward Texas and the NW Gulf. Mostly light rain inland with some rumbles of thunder offshore should begin this evening and continue tomorrow. As the upper low shears out and moves off to the NE, a cold front with drier air arrives Friday and Saturday. The next weather maker drops in from the NW Sunday and will bring clouds and perhaps some light rain before a drying and warm trend begins Monday.

[DoctorMu]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

The kind of heat we have in Texas can and does kill. It also runs up enormous utility bills, as A/C and watering become staples of keeping people, pets, plants alive. The kind of cold we get in SE Texas is TBH a joke. Days we'd see every winter day in North Carolina - a state known for mild weather.

"That's not a knife." Our son moved to Minnesota in August. Now, the thermals my wife sent him are getting a work out!

[DoctorMu]

Upper Low just East of the Baja Peninsula is on the move toward Texas and the NW Gulf. Mostly light rain inland with some rumbles of thunder offshore should begin this evening and continue tomorrow. As the upper low shears out and moves off to the NE, a cold front with drier air arrives Friday and Saturday. The next weather maker drops in from the NW Sunday and will bring clouds and perhaps some light rain before a drying and warm trend begins Monday.

Yeah, there was a massive and crystalline ring around the moon last night. We knew what was in store within 24-48 hours!

[DoctorMu]

Its cold morning across SE TX with most areas at or below freezing. Clouds will increase today with a chance of showers by this evening as an upper level low approaches TX. Tomorrow will be cold and wet with an 80% chance of rain and high temps in the 40s. Skies will clear Friday morning making way for a mostly sunny weekend with high in the low 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

I was hoping for a few degrees colder to whack down the insects. There's no wind this am. Doesn't feel too bad.

Hope to get in a run before any cold rain begins late this afternoon.

[Cromagnum]

Must have just crossed the threshold at my house as the dogs water bowl outside had a fine line of ice across the top.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

An upper level storm system will move across the area tonight and Thursday resulting in cold and wet conditions.

After a very cold mid November morning across the area, with many places falling to or below freezing, thickening mid and high level decks are currently spreading northeast across the region. Surface temperatures have struggled to warm into the 40’s and currently range from 39 at Caldwell to 46 at Palacios. Radar shows extensive returns approaching from the southwest, but much of this precipitation is falling from the high level deck and into a layer of very dry air in the mid and surface levels resulting in nearly all of the precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground. Cloud decks will continue to lower and thicken into the afternoon and evening hours and expect some patchy light rainfall to begin to reach the ground around Matagorda Bay by early to mid evening.

Upper level storm system moving into the western coast of MX will move ENE tonight into Thursday while at the same time, pressures will lower along the southern TX coast with the formation of a surface coastal trough. This surface feature will enhance the transport of moisture over the top of the surface cold dome increasing lift. The end result will be the development of widespread drizzle and light rain with embedded heavier showers tonight into at least the first half of Thursday, although rain may linger into Thursday afternoon especially south of I-10 and along the coast. Temperatures will stay nearly the same through the entire next 24-36 hours…mainly in the 40’s. Overall the weather for Thursday will be more January like than mid Novemberish.

Upper level system will move east of the area Thursday night and a weak cold front will cross the area helping to keep the cool weather in place through the weekend. Highs in the lower 60’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s will be common Friday and Saturday and then warming into the mid to upper 60’s on Sunday ahead of another frontal system. Air mass behind the front late Sunday into early Monday will be of Pacific nature instead of the recent arctic intrusion, so temperatures will only cool briefly before warming into the 70’s (near average for November) by the middle of next week.

Many locations across SE TX experienced at freeze this morning:
Madisonville: 23
Richmond: 25
Caldwell: 26
Columbus: 27
Anahuac: 28
Conroe: 28
Baytown: 29
Huntsville: 25
Spring: 26
Navasota: 27
Brenham: 28
West Columbia: 28
Deer Park: 29
Wharton: 29
Tomball: 29
College Station: 29
BUSH IAH: 31
Palacios: 32
Bay City: 32
Hobby: 32
Pearland: 32
Victoria: 32
Galveston: 36

[jasons2k]

Lots of variability in those low temps. “Spring” was a few degrees lower than IAH, as was Baytown. My temp was the same is IAH and I’m usually a degree or two colder.

[DoctorMu]

Wow - the showers in the area are almost all verga, with a ground dewpoint near 20°F. Good news for running with a light wind.

[DoctorMu]

Wednesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

An upper level storm system will move across the area tonight and Thursday resulting in cold and wet conditions.

After a very cold mid November morning across the area, with many places falling to or below freezing, thickening mid and high level decks are currently spreading northeast across the region. Surface temperatures have struggled to warm into the 40’s and currently range from 39 at Caldwell to 46 at Palacios. Radar shows extensive returns approaching from the southwest, but much of this precipitation is falling from the high level deck and into a layer of very dry air in the mid and surface levels resulting in nearly all of the precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground. Cloud decks will continue to lower and thicken into the afternoon and evening hours and expect some patchy light rainfall to begin to reach the ground around Matagorda Bay by early to mid evening.

Upper level storm system moving into the western coast of MX will move ENE tonight into Thursday while at the same time, pressures will lower along the southern TX coast with the formation of a surface coastal trough. This surface feature will enhance the transport of moisture over the top of the surface cold dome increasing lift. The end result will be the development of widespread drizzle and light rain with embedded heavier showers tonight into at least the first half of Thursday, although rain may linger into Thursday afternoon especially south of I-10 and along the coast. Temperatures will stay nearly the same through the entire next 24-36 hours…mainly in the 40’s. Overall the weather for Thursday will be more January like than mid Novemberish.

Upper level system will move east of the area Thursday night and a weak cold front will cross the area helping to keep the cool weather in place through the weekend. Highs in the lower 60’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s will be common Friday and Saturday and then warming into the mid to upper 60’s on Sunday ahead of another frontal system. Air mass behind the front late Sunday into early Monday will be of Pacific nature instead of the recent arctic intrusion, so temperatures will only cool briefly before warming into the 70’s (near average for November) by the middle of next week.

Many locations across SE TX experienced at freeze this morning:
Madisonville: 23
Richmond: 25
Caldwell: 26
Columbus: 27
Anahuac: 28
Conroe: 28
Baytown: 29
Huntsville: 25
Spring: 26
Navasota: 27
Brenham: 28
West Columbia: 28
Deer Park: 29
Wharton: 29
Tomball: 29
College Station: 29
BUSH IAH: 31
Palacios: 32
Bay City: 32
Hobby: 32
Pearland: 32
Victoria: 32
Galveston: 36

Huntsville had snow yesterday which helped lower last night's temps.

https://twitter.com/ppsmommy/status/119 ... 69281?s=20

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141004
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
404 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term (Today through Friday)...

Mid/upper low currently centered just south of Big Bend will move
ene across the region today bringing periods of rainfall and
continued cool temps due to limited heating. Precip should
gradually taper off late in the afternoon and evening as the trof
axis moves into La and a reinforcing front/dry air moves in behind
it. Skies will clear from north-to-south overnight as high
pressure builds into the region. Sunny skies w/ highs 55-60 on
Friday. 47

.Long Term (Friday night through Thursday)

Transitory upper ridging will move across the state to end the
week. The subsidence within a west-northwest mid to upper flow
pattern will keep skies mainly clear with surface high pressure
draped over east state to maintain a weak northeast to easterly
breeze through late Saturday. Weak, variable surface winds early
Sunday will veer onshore ahead of the next approaching upper
trough/weak surface boundary. This longwave trough will
progressively pass east during the day Sunday with the current GFS
solution being about 6 hours faster than the Euro`s. Slight
chances for showers late Sunday into early Monday but there will
be little QPF associated with the passage of this trough. There
just isn`t enough time to increase sufficient lower level moisture
for widespread, more moderate precipitation. Light onshore flow
for less than an afternoon will not be enough to saturate an
already relatively dry resident air mass. Thus, any weak forcing
induced by the passage of the upper trough will not have much
moisture to work with overnight Monday morning.

This trough slows as shortwave energy out of central Canada
deepens it over the eastern half of the country. This will place
us on the dry and subsident western leg of its axis, under upper
northwest winds through early Wednesday. Little change in the
early work week synoptic pattern will maintain status quo weak
breezes and moisture levels. Clear skies will offer up warming
from the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday to the middle to upper 70s
by Wednesday. Onshore flow does return Wednesday to make mid week
feel much more southeast Texas-like...much warmer and more humid.
Clear skies and weak lower level winds will keep nights cool
(40s/low 50s by sunrise) but also introduce a higher probability
of interior fog development per lower dew point depressions.
Needless to say but, after Sunday night/Monday morning`s slight
rain chances, there will be nil precipitation probabilities
through late Wednesday. 31

&&

.Marine...

Look for increasing shra and possibly isolated tstms in the Gulf
today as an upper level trof pushes across the area. The pressure
gradient is currently tightening along the upper Tx coast in
association w/ a surface coastal trof. Will hoist the caution flags
for now, but will be upgraded to an advsy by mid morning w/ a
continued increase of winds/seas. The coastal trof will trek ese
thru the day as the upper system makes its way thru. Winds will back
to the ne then north as this occurs. Precip will taper off this
evening, but moderate offshore winds will persist and the advsy will
likely need to be extended into the overnight hours. Diminishing ne
flow and lowering seas should prevail going into the weekend. Light
e/se winds will briefly resume early Sunday, but expect another
front to push off the coast Sunday night and Monday. 47

&&

.Aviation...

Ceilings are transitioning into MVFR territory and will probably
continue a downward trend (possibly IFR) later this morning as
rainfall begins to overspread the area. Precip should begin tapering
off later this afternoon and evening as the system moves off to the
east. Clearing skies from north-to-south expected in the 3-10z
timeframe. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 46 35 59 35 60 / 70 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 47 38 58 36 60 / 80 30 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 53 44 57 48 58 / 80 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Short/Marine/Aviation...47
Long...31