November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Freeze warning is in effect for tonight for most areas except the immediate coastal beaches.

Hard Freeze Watch is in effect for: Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, and Walker Counties.

Arctic air mass has firmly entrenched across the region with 800am temperatures running in the mid to upper 30’s and wind chills in the upper 10’s to mid 20’s. While low level clouds are starting to break and scattered with the deepening dry air mass advecting southward, mid and high level clouds associated with an upper level system near Baja are still streaming across the region. Temperatures will only warm into the mid 40’s today under filtered sun.

Tonight:
Clouds will likely briefly think more this evening and with a surface arctic high nearby a very cold night is expected. Nearly all locations will experience freezing temperatures except Galveston Island and the immediate beach areas. Most areas will fall into the upper 20’s including the Houston metro area, while areas along and north of HWY 105 will fall into the low to mid 20’s. Hard freeze watch is in effect for the counties mentioned above for low temperatures of 24 degrees or lower for 2 or more hours. This will be a killing freeze for much of the area and cold weather precautions should be taken.

Upper level system off of Baja currently will begin to move eastward and approach S TX late Wednesday. Clouds will thicken and lower Wednesday as a coastal trough forms along the lower TX coast in response to the incoming lower pressures from the WSW. Both Pacific and Gulf moisture will begin to overrun the dense and cold surface air mass by late Wednesday into early Thursday. Good news is that surface temperatures on Thursday morning will only fall into the lower 40’s which will prevent any sort of freezing or frozen precipitation. It will be continued cold and raw Thursday with clouds, periods of rain, and temperatures only in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s for highs.

Storm system will move eastward on Thursday night with a dry upper level pattern likely in place Friday into the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Not sure we will get as cold as currently forecasted tomorrow morning the 12Z GFS suggests a thickening blanket of high clouds may put a stop to ideal radiational cooling.

[Cromagnum]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

[djmike]

27 forecasted tonight for Beaumont. This is gonna be fun. Everyone remember the 4 P’s!!! Plants, Pipes, PEOPLE & PETS! Bring those fur babies in.

[tireman4]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
344
FXUS64 KHGX 121724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1124 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Cold front has pushed well off the coast and radar only picking up
on some light rain in the offshore waters. Cloud cover may keep
temperatures from increasing very much today. Winds should
decrease through the afternoon and will end the wind advisory
along the coast at 6PM.

Temperatures for Wednesday morning lows will be tough as there
should be enough "clear" sky for radiational cooling once winds
decouple. Question will be how thick will cirrus be overnight as
SW flow aloft continues with the upper low moving into Mexico from
the Baja peninsula. Based on model guidance, it looks like low
temperatures should be on track with current freeze and hard
freeze headlines. We will need to nail down the hard freeze
warning area for the afternoon forecast update.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Winds should decrease this afternoon and decouple tonight. VFR
ceilings should prevail next 24-30hrs. Mid level clouds should
increase tomorrow afternoon and night.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 26 49 40 52 36 / 0 10 40 50 20
Houston (IAH) 27 49 42 50 39 / 0 0 40 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 37 52 49 55 46 / 0 10 50 70 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning
for the following zones:
Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
the following zones: Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Overpeck

AVIATION...Overpeck

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Amen and Amen!

[BlueJay]

I'm rooting for a thick cloud cover tonight as srain mentioned.

YAY clouds!

[jasons2k]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

[srainhoutx]

Hard Freeze Warning issued for Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker Counties. Brazos and Burleson Counties were not included.

[unome]

we'll be at or below freezing 10+ hrs in our corner of NW Harris county, current forecast low is 27, looks like the plants that can be moved are coming inside

[Cromagnum]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

[Cpv17]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

I can deal with the heat just fine as long as I have plenty of cold water. However, I can’t deal with the cold. Also, I only get sick when temps change drastically from warm to cold. When the temps are steady and don’t ever really change, I never get sick.

[Ptarmigan]

Let me remind everyone that griped about the cold weather last year that you already had your 7 months of summer. It's our turn now.

Yeah but this is SE Texas. It’s supposed to get hot. It’s not supposed to be this cold in mid-November. At least you can function in the heat, run a fan, drink fluids, or jump in the pool. There isn’t anything you can do outdoors in this misery. Our poor security guard for the parking lot has been in the building lobby all day...

At least it is SE Texas and this will quickly pass, thank goodness! Nothing we can do to change it.

Haha, some of us can function in heat. I'm from Houston and still am heat intolerant 38 years later. I'll take this weather any day.

Same here. I will take the cold as well.

[Cpv17]

I’m not so sure it’ll get that cold tonight as forecasted. My temp has been holding steady at 37 degrees for two hours now.

[Cpv17]

Well now temps have started to drop pretty quickly here since my last post lol I guess the clouds started to clear.

[jasons2k]

Time to break out the Norwegian hand cream so my fingers don’t crack.

[Cromagnum]

We will see how cold it gets here. I was already suppose to be at 33 but holding fast at 39

[biggerbyte]

I just want to say goodbye to srainhoutx.
You will be missed by many.

Safe travels.

[Katdaddy]

Its cold morning across SE TX with most areas at or below freezing. Clouds will increase today with a chance of showers by this evening as an upper level low approaches TX. Tomorrow will be cold and wet with an 80% chance of rain and high temps in the 40s. Skies will clear Friday morning making way for a mostly sunny weekend with high in the low 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

[jasons2k]

My low this morning was 31. A lot better than 25! Thank you cloud blanket!!