November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

[djmike]

Cold front is just now over Beaumont. Man what a drop. 10min ago I was at 74. Now 64 and dropping fast. Let us know if you see sleet Hou! Yall have a better chance than we do in BMT per the models.

[srainhoutx]

Seeing reports of sleet mixed with rain from Wixon Valley from Brazos County 911

[srainhoutx]

Update from HGX...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019

.UPDATE...

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES ARE
DECREASING QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT
COLLEGE STATION, HUNTSVILLE AND CONROE. ADDITIONALLY, A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER BURLESON, BRAZOS, MADISON,
NORTHERN GRIMES, AND WALKER COUNTIES. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED
A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND RAIN IN WIXON VALLEY AT AROUND 540 PM
CST TODAY. THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SLEET WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAINFALL CONTINUES AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE EVEN FURTHER IN
THESE REGIONS.

SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TREND AS WELL AS THE REPORTED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WAS INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CURRENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
(LOWERED). MOREOVER, THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET WAS INCLUDED FOR
THE WASHINGTON, BURLESON, BRAZOS, GRIMES, MADISON, NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY, NORTHERN SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON, WALKER, TRINITY AND
NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. 24/43

[srainhoutx]

Sleet accumulating on elevated surface (patio surfaces) in Kerrville at this hour

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 12m12 minutes ago
Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected tonight through Wednesday. The low's on Wednesday morning will be some of the coldest temperatures observed for so early in the autumn season. Forecast lows for Wednesday: Houston 29, College Station 24 and Galveston 38.

[srainhoutx]

Light snow reported in Kerrville

[DoctorMu]

Same here. Impressive front. Very windy. Back to winter. Yuck.

I'm going to go for a run tonight now that it will be tolerable again!


You and I are about as 180 as it gets when it comes to outdoor activities and weather.

I think me and you are pretty opposite as well lol but we all like snow.

I went out and ran a mile and a half in a hoodie. Felt great.

Impressive cooling of the column with cold rain. 37°F and tanking here. Wintry stuff has snuck past Round Rock and Killeen on a vector this way.

[DoctorMu]

Light snow reported in Kerrville

Quite a large swath.

[Rip76]

Coming down in Friendswood currently.
Wind is howling.

[DoctorMu]

Light snow reported in Austin.

36°F IMBY

As expected, the cold air and precip are overperforming.


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
726 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Temperatures came in colder behind the front than originally
anticipated. Significant drops in temperatures have now leveled out
slightly and an update was issued to reflect the change. Multiple
reports incoming of sleet in the Hill Country, and with lowered
temperatures, LLano and Burnet Counties have been added to the Winter
Weather Advisory. As of right now, we are still closely monitoring
Williamson, Travis, and Hays counties as these are still several
degrees above freezing.

&&

[DoctorMu]

From 76°F to 36°F

A 40°F drop since noon today. Almost a 50°F drop expected by this morning - predicted low has been adjusted downward to 28°F in CLL.

[unome]

not a fan of winter

https://preview.weather.gov/edd/resourc ... ined|1#%2F

[Kingwood36]

not a fan of winter

https://preview.weather.gov/edd/resourc ... ined|1#%2F

Its beautiful isnt it!🌨

[Texaspirate11]

35 by the bay with wind chill feels like 29
North winds gusting...I hate this weather.

[Katdaddy]

38F with gusty N winds up to 30MPH. The wind woke me up a few times last night and the heater is now on.

[snowman65]

Going to enjoy the next few days....for me, anyway.....lol....Looks like a ho-hum remainder of the month after this....until we meet again, winter....

[jasons2k]

Brrrr it’s frickin’ cold outside!! That wind cuts like a knife. Not fun at all! I miss those 70’s already!!

I’m under a hard freeze warning tonight with a forecast low of 26. It’s too early in the season for this #%+!% !!!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...

Still seeing some returns of radar...some of it may contain a mix
of sleet. However, depth of drier air continues to increase from
north-to-south and expect bulk of precip to be on a downward
trend and mostly offshore around or shortly after sunrise. Temps
should mostly be above freezing where it falls, and combined with
warm grounds, not expecting accumulations/impacts in regards to
winter wx...

Look for clouds to gradually scatter out today and winds to diminish
this afternoon. Though breezy, we are able to trim the wind advsy
out of most inland locations as sustained winds 25mph+ are not
anticipated there. Kept it going closer to the coast where that
remains an issue.

Abnormally cold temperatures today should quickly drop after sunset
with dewpoints in the teens and light winds in place. Freeze
warnings have been issued from Liberty County to Wharton county
southward who should see their first freeze of the season.
(Locations further north will also see a freeze but have already
seen their first - hence no freeze warning). However, we did issue a
Hard Freeze Watch for locations north and east of the Houston metro
area tonight. A Hard Freeze Watch is issued when temperatures <24
degrees are a possibility for 2+ hours. A limiting factor for this
would be some high cloudiness, which depending on how thick, may
keep readings from falling that far. Will let the day shift take a
look at things and upgrade/adjust areas to a Warning if necessary.

Wednesday looks like a transition day as the mid/upper low to our
west approaches. Look for increasing cloudiness to be moving in from
the southwest during the day. 47


.Long Term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...

A raw overcast, cold late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
under a weak variable wind field as southeastern Texas will still
remain under the southwestern influence of mid-Atlantic surface
high pressure. A resident cold air mass under overcast skies and
a late day weak cold frontal passage guarantees a Thursday
afternoon that will remain in the 40s...briefly touching the
lower 50s. An upper level closed-off low moving out of
northeastern Mexico will open up into a wave on its northeastern
trek into the western Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. The
surface reflection of this low will be an offshore inverted trough
that is forecast to move near parallel along the Texas coastline
through late Thursday evening. This system will tap into just
enough moisture (1.3 to 1.4 inch pwats) to be able to generate
light rain and showers. Thursday`s precipitation will move up the
coastline with the highest rain probabilities and QPF being
centered around Matagorda Bay and points offshore. A fully
saturated, strong mid-level inversion prog profile ensures
overcast and more wet conditions...primarily light rain or showers
but cannot rule out an offshore rumble of thunder from any
elevated maritime thunderstorm. The upper low becomes absorbed
within a larger scale eastern CONUS trough early Friday but not
before it pulls a weak cold front down from the north along its
western backside. This will reinforce an already cold air mass as
a north to south clearing line enhances nocturnal radiative
cooling and has early Friday temperatures falling to the middle
30s (north) to around 40 F across the coastal counties. Northern
high pressure building down into the region Friday will produce
sunny skies and a light north-northeast breeze. Daytime
temperatures will warm up into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Little
change in the synoptic pattern will have Saturday`s weather
conditions closely mirroring Friday`s.

Saturday`s brief transitory upper ridging will quickly give way
to the passage of a deep upper trough on Sunday. So, while the
weekend starts out great, it will have a more cloudy close with
slight rain chances...yet still pleasantly mild as daytime temps
warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday. The trough passage
will push in a cold front but there doesn`t seem to be much
downstream overall column moisture to work with. Therefore, POPS
for mainly showers will be on the low side to begin the week. Mid
to upper NW-N flow will stabilize the weather heading into the new
work week. Partially cloudy to mainly clear skies with no
precipitation in the extended forecast. Subsequent day warming
as morning near 50 minTs warm nicely into the middle 60s (Monday)
to lower 70s (Tuesday) just after the noon hour. Sunday`s weak
northeast winds will slowly back to the north and west to
eventually south by Tuesday afternoon. 31

&&

.Marine...

Strong north winds and elevated seas will continue today. Slow
improvement is expected to begin this afternoon into Wednesday.
Gale Warnings remain necessary this morning, but should be
allowed to be downgraded to Small Craft Advisories, from north-to-
south, later in the day. Water is being pushed out of the bays,
with levels currently 1-1.7 ft below normal across northern parts
of Galveston and Matagorda Bays. A Low Water Advisory remains in
effect through the next low tide cycle this afternoon...but may
need to be extended. Vessel groundings are an increased risk in
these situations.

A coastal trough develops Wednesday night, and winds and seas will
again increase. Another reinforcing front will push off the coast on
Thursday. Small Craft Advisories look to be a good bet Thursday into
Friday morning. Northeast winds should prevail going into the
weekend. 47

&&

.Aviation...

MVFR ceilings will continue to lift as colder air deepens. Look for
VFR conditions areawide toward mid morning. North winds will remain
gusty into the early/mid afternoon hours, but should be on a
downward trend through the day and relax this evening. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 43 24 48 40 52 / 10 0 0 40 50
Houston (IAH) 44 27 52 42 50 / 0 0 0 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 47 37 49 49 55 / 30 0 0 50 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Grimes...Houston...Madison...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker.

Wind Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
the following zones: Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Chambers...Coastal Harris.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Short/Marine/Aviation...47
Long...31

[DoctorMu]

A few flakes in the Brazos Valley earlier this am. A snow shower currently in Huntsville.

[srainhoutx]

Ryan‏Verified account @RyanMaue · 11m11 minutes ago

Only 7°F this morning in Amarillo, Texas matching the 7°F in Chicago.

Cold rewriting many records from 1911. Century long cold records are incredibly hard to beat ... and they are being shattered.