November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:00 pm

snowman65 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm
crickets.......
Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by Srain » Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:00 pm
snowman65 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm
crickets.......
Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.
Our neighbors in Louisiana might beg to differ with your "yawn". Rather chilly temperatures will accompany the deep Eastern trough.
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:24 pm

Srain wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:00 pm
snowman65 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm
crickets.......
Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.
Our neighbors in Louisiana might beg to differ with your "yawn". Rather chilly temperatures will accompany the deep Eastern trough.
I agree with that! Looks like it’ll definitely be colder in Louisiana than southeast TX. Positive PNA I’m assuming.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:01 am

A mostly cloudy warm day with a slight chance of showers. Expect some patches of fog and mist during the morning commute.
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:21 am

We will need to keep an eye on a strong cold front arriving late Sunday night into Monday. Super Typhoon Halong re curving in the Western Pacific toward the Gulf of Alaska/Bering Sea may reshuffle the upper air pattern enough to bring another near freezing chill to our Region. Folks further East may see the coldest air of the season. The ECMWF suggests a near 1050mb Artic High drops into the Plains behind this surge of cold air.
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:22 am

Bring on the cold front train! Lets keep it rolling into January.
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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:09 am

A little warmer today than originally forecast. DP of 68°F is the kicker for November - yuck.

That changes Thursday with cooler weather penetrating to stay. The fly in the ointment are on and off periods of rain as impulses out of northern Mexico and a second front bring disturbed weather...

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:40 am

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...

We`ll continue to see temperatures that are near or above seasonal
averages for the first half of the week, but cooler and more
active weather will be back in the picture with a couple cold
fronts expected to sweep through the area late this week and early
next week:

- The first front looks to come through the area on Thursday
afternoon. This should allow highs to get pretty toasty near the
coast, but cooler far inland. Look for showers and thunderstorms
along the front, and lingering into Thursday night.

- Another front arrives Monday to put an end to any warmup before
solid onshore flow can return. The lack of return flow should
also limit shower and storm potential, but moisture may recover
enough to avoid a completely dry frontal passage.

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...

Closely monitoring area visibilities early this morning where
some locations (mainly west of I-45 at 3 AM) are flirting with
1/4 to 1/2 mile readings. If the lower numbers become a little
more widespread, we`ll likely be issuing a Dense Fog Advisory.
Look for improving visibilities to begin shortly after sunrise.
The combination of increasing Gulf moisture, a weak boundary
in the area and daytime heating could allow for some showers to
develop today (already seeing some off Galveston Island, the
Bolivar Peninsula and parts of Chambers/Liberty County). Partly
to mostly cloudy skies are anticipated for much of the day today
with high temperatures warming up into the mid 70s at the coast
to the upper 70s to lower 80s inland (near to slightly above
normal for early November). More low cloud and possible fog
development can be expected tonight through tomorrow morning.
Will carry slightly cooler temperatures for both tonight and
tomorrow with rain chances close to zero.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

By Wednesday evening, our first of two cold fronts will be
crossing the Red River into North Texas. The midlevel pattern is
not terribly conducive to a strong frontal push, but the NAM and
GFS suggest enough ripples crossing the area in relatively zonal
flow, plus strong consensus for a 1040 high riding down the lee
of the Rockies that should help force the front through our area
on Thursday. Additionally, abnormally high moisture levels in
North Texas should help fuel convection, and if we can get an
organized cold pool on frontal convection, that could help boost
the strength of any front that may begin to flag...at least, at
the surface.

Because the front just aloft in the 925-700 mb layer looks to lag
behind the surface front by several hours, I`m coming around to
the GFS` idea of having some trailing showers into Thursday
evening, at least in the coastal half of the area (and so does the
Euro). FWIW, while the extreme moisture in the frontal area from
North Texas is starting to tail off, the EPS keeps 97-99th
percentile precipitable water values near the coast into Thursday
night. As long as that moisture and the front aloft do lag, we
should manage to squeeze out some more showers.

The GFS does go so far as to suggest heavy rain in this post-
frontal rain, but unless we can really tap into elevated
instability, I`m not so sure about that. CIPS analogs do show an
increasing signal for 2" of rain in the area associated with
fropa, so it`s something to keep an eye out for.

The surge of colder air will obviously make for some chillier
nights Thursday night, and especially Friday night. The inland
half of the area looks to see lows Saturday morning dip below 40
degrees, and might even flirt with freezing up towards Crockett.
We should start to see a rebound in temps deeper into the weekend
with winds gaining an onshore component Saturday into Sunday.

After that bit of a rebound Sunday, another front arrives Monday
morning (give or take a bit...perhaps as early as Sunday night or
as late as Monday evening). This front will put a hard end to any
warmup before solid onshore flow can return. The lack of return
flow should also limit shower and storm potential, but moisture
may recover enough to avoid a completely dry frontal passage. The
GFS only has 1.25 inches of precipitable water, and the EPS mean
comes in between 1 and 1.25 inches, so...rain is no sure bet with
this frontal passage.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:21 pm

12z Canadian is wild.

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Re: November 2019: Begins With A Cooler/Progressive Pattern

Post by mcheer23 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:24 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:21 pm
12z Canadian is wild.
ICON, CMC and GFS are all pretty cold and wet.

EURO was quite warmer than those 3.

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