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Re: October: Cold Front/Mid Week Warming /Stronger Front Friday

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:06 pm
by JDsGN
Has the southerly flow kicked in early? I just ran to the store and expected it to be a bit more refreshing but my temp gauge showed 77 and it’s pretty humid. Weather ap shows 70 but I’m not buying it.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:30 am
by srainhoutx
Rollercoaster weather pattern ahead for the next 7 days. Onshore flow has returned and temperatures will be on the rise once again. A powerful winter like storm is organizing across the Northern Rockies and a strong surface low will wrap up tonight into tomorrow across the Northern Plains where some locations could see over a foot of snow in portions of the Dakotas and MN. Snow showers may extend as far S as Kansas and that refrigerated air mass will rush across Texas Thursday night into Friday bringing much chillier air in its wake. We may see a 30 to 35 degree temperature drop with the arrival of that strong Canadian front, so be prepared Friday. Saturday will feel like Fall has really arrived, but that will be short lived. Onshore flow resumes Sunday night and a surge of deep tropical moisture pushes in off the Gulf next Monday and continues into mid next week. Some of the models are indicating that tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific and a sheared out storm system near Baja could bring additional moisture across Texas. Not sure I totally buy that solution just yet. A lot of folks need rain and there is just too much uncertainty at this range to feel confident in any measureable rain chances.

Re: October: Cold Front/Mid Week Warming /Stronger Front Friday

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:20 am
by CrashTestDummy
JDsGN wrote: Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:06 pm Has the southerly flow kicked in early? I just ran to the store and expected it to be a bit more refreshing but my temp gauge showed 77 and it’s pretty humid. Weather ap shows 70 but I’m not buying it.
It's felt a LOT more humid than the gauges are indicating, in my opinion. Not sure what it is, but while it was cool, it really felt damp. We even have some fog this morning in N. Brazoria county.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:28 am
by Texaspirate11
What a beautiful morning - 67 degrees and I can just feel the Fall....

Re: October: Cold Front/Mid Week Warming /Stronger Front Friday

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:30 am
by Cpv17
CrashTestDummy wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:20 am
JDsGN wrote: Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:06 pm Has the southerly flow kicked in early? I just ran to the store and expected it to be a bit more refreshing but my temp gauge showed 77 and it’s pretty humid. Weather ap shows 70 but I’m not buying it.
It's felt a LOT more humid than the gauges are indicating, in my opinion. Not sure what it is, but while it was cool, it really felt damp. We even have some fog this morning in N. Brazoria county.
I agree. The air wasn’t crisp. Yesterday morning felt quite a bit better. Plus today at work I started sweating a lot faster than I did yesterday.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:51 am
by Cpv17
Crazy stuff!! The NAM doesn’t have us getting out of the low to mid 50’s on Friday and has low 60’s for Saturday. What the heck? Lol

Image

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:19 am
by srainhoutx
Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will blast across the region on Friday

Upper air pattern will amplify and produce a strong fall snowstorm across the northern plains and portions of the Rockies late this week. Modified Canadian air mass with temperatures currently in the 20’s will plow southward down the front range of the Rockies Thursday and across Texas and off the coast on Friday. Strong cold air advection will accompany this front with a sharp drop in temperatures of at least 15-20 degrees Friday as the front moves across the area. Many locations will see high temperatures in the low to mid 70’s prior to the frontal passage and then quickly fall into the low 60’s and eventually the 50’s by mid to late afternoon. Strong north winds of 15-25mph will result in a very cool afternoon and evening on Friday compared to the last several months.

Will likely see both pre frontal and post frontal showers and thunderstorms on Friday, but rain accumulations will likely be on the lower side or on average .25-.75 of an inch. Post frontal cloudy skies into Friday afternoon and evening will allow the cold shallow air mass to entrench over the area quickly on Friday.

Skies will begin to clear early Saturday, but cold air advection will remain in place and only allow temperatures to warm to near 70 on Saturday even with mostly sunny skies. Most of the day will be spent in the 60’s with NE winds…so it will continue to feel “cold”. Overnight lows Sunday morning should fall into the 50’s over nearly all of the area, except the coast where water temperatures and still very warm. Would not be surprised to see some of the western and northern areas fall into the 40’s.

Cold Canadian high pressure moves eastward later Sunday allowing a return of SE winds and heat and humidity will be back into the area on Monday along with daily rain chances.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm
by djmike
Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:30 pm
by Cpv17
djmike wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
No, there doesn’t appear to be anymore fronts coming anytime soon after the one on Friday. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at seeing a return to well above average temps and some strong chances for rain.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:03 pm
by Cromagnum
Yeah, it's a tease. In beyond done with hot and humid. As soon as I can retire (in 25 years, sigh) I'm moving away from Houston

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:10 pm
by Ptarmigan
Super Typhoon Hagibis is quite a large super typhoon. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 155 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 368 miles from the eye! :shock: :o
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2019web.txt

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Code: Select all

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 020    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 139.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 139.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 25.2N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 27.4N 137.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 30.0N 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 32.6N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 39.7N 145.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 139.5E.
10OCT19. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726
NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 61 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:53 am
by snowman65
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:30 pm
djmike wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
No, there doesn’t appear to be anymore fronts coming anytime soon after the one on Friday. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at seeing a return to well above average temps and some strong chances for rain.
Reminder...winter is this weekend, followed by summer starting Monday until further notice. :lol: :lol:

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:14 am
by BlueJay
snowman65 wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:53 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:30 pm
djmike wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
No, there doesn’t appear to be anymore fronts coming anytime soon after the one on Friday. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at seeing a return to well above average temps and some strong chances for rain.
Reminder...winter is this weekend, followed by summer starting Monday until further notice. :lol: :lol:
Sounds good! Thanks for the heads up, snowman65!

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:19 am
by srainhoutx
Very impressive shot of Canadian air associated with the front tomorrow. Better have a jacket ready because you'll need it for the afternoon rush hour and evening plans.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:21 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:19 am Very impressive shot of Canadian air associated with the front tomorrow. Better have a jacket ready because you'll need for the afternoon rush hour and evening plans.
Weather-gasmic!

I'm going to sit outside all day tomorrow on Northgate, sip bourbon, and give the Roll Tiders hell.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:56 am
by Katdaddy
The cold front will arrive tomorrow with gusty N winds.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...Strong gusty north winds developing Friday in the wake of a
cold front...

.Friday morning a strong cold front will move through the region
ushering in gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30
mph.

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-
437-438-110315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0012.191011T1600Z-191012T0000Z/
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Fort Bend-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Houston-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Baytown,
Cleveland, Clute, Coldspring, Conroe, Corrigan, Crockett, Dayton,
Devers, Dickinson, First Colony, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Groveton, Houston, Huntsville, La Marque,
Lake Jackson, League City, Liberty, Livingston, Mission Bend,
Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pecan Grove, Rosenberg, Shepherd, Stowell, Sugar Land,
Surfside Beach, Texas City, The Woodlands, Trinity, and Winnie
1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday.

* EVENT...North winds 15 to 20 mph gusting to near 30 mph in the
wake of a cold front.

* TIMING...Cold front moving south through the area with gusty
north winds in the wake of this front likely reaching the
Huntsville area around 10 am and Houston by 11 am and Galveston
around noon.

* IMPACT...Lightweight objects or objects with a large surface
area may be pushed or tossed by the strong wind gusts. Hazardous
driving conditions will be possible on elevated roadways or high
profile vehicles traveling on east to west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along east to west oriented roads

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:14 pm
by DoctorMu
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:19 am Very impressive shot of Canadian air associated with the front tomorrow. Better have a jacket ready because you'll need for the afternoon rush hour and evening plans.

Most of the rain will be north of here, but at least a change for 3 days. The weekend should be nice.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:53 pm
by srainhoutx
Thursday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

A strong cold front will sweep across SE TX on Friday ending the current heat and ushering in a cold Canadian air mass.

Front is clearly defined on radar over NC TX this afternoon and surging southward. Such shallow, dense, and cold air masses tend to move faster than model guidance suggests especially given the intensity of the cold air over eastern Colorado with many locations currently in the 20’s. Amarillo is currently 55 compared to 93 at Austin. Front will plow southward overnight and arrive around College Station near sunrise and reach the coast by noon or early afternoon. High temperatures ahead of the boundary will reach the upper 70’s and low 80’s followed by a sharp temperatures drop of 10-15 degrees with the frontal passage and onset of strong N winds of 15-25mph with gust to 35mph. Temperatures will continue to fall behind the front with strong cold air advection in place and cloud cover. Many areas will fall into the upper 50’s by late afternoon along and NW of US 59 and low to mid 60’s SE of US 59. Gusty winds will make it fell much colder especially when compared to the lower 90’s of today.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead, along, and just behind the front on Friday with a few strong storm possible. Rainfall amounts will be generally in the .25 to .75 of an inch range.

Strong cold air advection continues on Friday night with N winds of 15-20mph continuing to bring a cold Canadian air mass into the region. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s over much of the region. Momentum transfer of the cold air over top of the still very warm Gulf waters will result in very strong winds along the coast and offshore on Friday night with sustained speeds of 20-30mph and gust over 40mph likely. Skies begin to clear on Saturday morning, but temperatures will only make the upper 60’s to near 70 for highs as cold air continues to spill into the area from the north.

Clear skies and a weak NE wind on Sunday AM will result in the coldest temperatures in the last 6 months over the area with locations NW of a Columbus to Cleveland line falling into the 40’s and most everywhere else in the 50’s. Coastal locations will likely stay in the mid 60’s with the still 80 degree water temperatures nearby.

As the cold Canadian high moves east late Sunday winds will swing back around to the SE and allow moisture and warm air to surge back into the region by Monday. Will go with daily rain chances of 30-40% Monday-Wednesday ahead of our next front sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:55 pm
by jasons2k
Big storms up in the DFW area tonight.

Re: October: Strong Cold Front Friday/Rain Chances Next Week?

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:58 am
by Katdaddy
A line of showers and thunderstorms are moving across N portions of SE TX this morning ahead of the cold front approaching SE TX. A theme song for today and this weekend from the new Goo Goo Dolls album: Autumn Leaves. Yep, get ready for a Fall transition this morning across the Houston-Galveston areas as the front pushes offshore around noon. An awesome SE TX Fall weekend ahead. Enjoy!