BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
754 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 830 AM CDT.
* AT 754 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CONROE DAM, OR NEAR CONROE,
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CONROE AROUND 800 AM CDT.
SHENANDOAH AND WOODLOCH AROUND 810 AM CDT.
CUT AND SHOOT AROUND 820 AM CDT.
PORTER HEIGHTS AROUND 830 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
October: Chilly Halloween Outlook
- srainhoutx
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- srainhoutx
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Tornado Warning cancelled. Front is pushing in quickly. Temperatures have dropped to the Upper 50's in College Station and San Antonio. Those 'colder' temperatures will continue to advance SE this morning. Showers/storms may continue well behind the front throughout the day.
Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!
Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
Strong cold front moving across SE TX.
Cold front is currently located just NW of the US 59 corridor and moving to the SE. Temperatures behind the front are falling into the 50’s quickly with Caldwell down to 52 and Brenham 58 with N winds of 20-30mph. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and behind the boundary and this activity will continue as the front progresses southward.
Based on upstream temperatures, will likely need to lower temperatures for today with most areas falling into the 50’s this afternoon away from the coast. This combined with the strong N wind is going to make for an abrupt difference compared to the low 90’s of yesterday.
Cold air advection will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the mid 40’s up north to lower 50’s for much of the area and near 60 along the coast. Clouds look to hang tough through the night and now skies may be slower to clear on Saturday which may keep many areas in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s for much of the day on Saturday. If skies do not clear on Saturday temperatures could remain in the 50’s and with continued NNE winds…it is going to feel “cold”
Warm front will begin to back northward late Sunday and moisture levels rapidly deepen late Sunday into Monday as the warm front moves across the area. Rain chances will be increasing for the first part of next week and some of the rainfall could be heavy at times.
Strong cold front moving across SE TX.
Cold front is currently located just NW of the US 59 corridor and moving to the SE. Temperatures behind the front are falling into the 50’s quickly with Caldwell down to 52 and Brenham 58 with N winds of 20-30mph. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and behind the boundary and this activity will continue as the front progresses southward.
Based on upstream temperatures, will likely need to lower temperatures for today with most areas falling into the 50’s this afternoon away from the coast. This combined with the strong N wind is going to make for an abrupt difference compared to the low 90’s of yesterday.
Cold air advection will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the mid 40’s up north to lower 50’s for much of the area and near 60 along the coast. Clouds look to hang tough through the night and now skies may be slower to clear on Saturday which may keep many areas in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s for much of the day on Saturday. If skies do not clear on Saturday temperatures could remain in the 50’s and with continued NNE winds…it is going to feel “cold”
Warm front will begin to back northward late Sunday and moisture levels rapidly deepen late Sunday into Monday as the warm front moves across the area. Rain chances will be increasing for the first part of next week and some of the rainfall could be heavy at times.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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I got more rain (0.79") in one hour this morning than I've had in total since mid July. That was rough.
Solid red line until it gets to my house, then it splits around me.
The rain (surprise!) has been s pleasant change: 0.65 in IMBY. Temp has dropped nearly 30°F. Windy and cloudy. It's nice to stop sweating.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:40 am Tornado Warning cancelled. Front is pushing in quickly. Temperatures have dropped to the Upper 50's in College Station and San Antonio. Those 'colder' temperatures will continue to advance SE this morning. Showers/storms may continue well behind the front throughout the day.
Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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That's what kept happening to us last year! We were having to water things, while our neighbors were slogging through the mud.
Currently light north wind here in northern Brazoria Co. Things are VERY humid. 82 deg-F.
Wifey currently sitting on a plane in Orlando airport trying to get home. There's a hold on incoming flights to IAH, so they pushed back from the loading ramp to get their on-time departure set then rolled back to park for more than an hour.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Glad some folks got some much-needed rain.
I had .10”
I had .10”
Line came right at my house. Then went north and south without as drop.
- srainhoutx
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850mb front is pushing through NW Harris County. Temperature is falling a bit quicker now. Currently 60F with almost a half inch of rain in the gauge.
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Houston! I see the fronts making it through your area. We always seem to get fronts through Beaumont last in the entire state of Texas do to the angle they always come in, but my question is, how much of a drop in temps are you seeing as the front passes over? Im like a giddy little kid when fronts arrive. Currently sweating and 82 in my backyard. Ughh.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Have opened up the doors and windows. Taking a rare opportunity to really air out the house! 59 here.
OK, cold front....whenever you're ready, sweetheart....lets go lets go....
Right snowman! Still 82 in Beaumont dripping in sweat. C’mon front! You can do it! Believe in yourself! Just keep moving forward and never look back! ...well till sunday. Youll be a hot mess by then. Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
- MontgomeryCoWx
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Wind chill of 45 in CS. Sitting on the porch of the Dixie Chicken enjoying the air and some good whiskey!
Team #NeverSummer
Wow. Its here! 82 now to 62! This feels awesome! Thinking of doing my famous family gumbo recipe tonight! Yes! I think i will! Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
heat index of 94 yesterday seems like a memory - happy to have lower temps, but wow, what a shock to our tropical plants . Lightning tripped our gfci breakers this morning & even set off the smoke detectors briefly - luckily we were able to reset them & no damage - but dang, Fall arrived with a bang y'all !
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
140 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019
.SHORT TERM [Afternoon through Saturday afternoon]...
Quick update to the forecast to raise chances further across the
north where lift spreading over the 850mb front is expanding
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Also lowered
temperatures a few more degrees given current observational
trends. Wind chill readings of 40-55 blanket the area but the
immediate coast. Hello Fall!
45
it's the little things.....was sitting on the patio when it blew through. temp steadily dropping and windy....my second favorite day of the year....lol
- srainhoutx
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Code: Select all
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
247 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019
...UPDATE FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS...
SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON FORECAST AREA, THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR HAS EXPANDED OR ESCALATED THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
SEVERE TO EXTREME (D2 TO D3) FOR PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON, BURLESON,
BRAZOS, MADISON, AND GRIMES COUNTIES AND FROM MODERATE TO
SEVERE (D1 TO D2) IN PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D1) CONTINUE THROUGH PORTIONS OF COLORADO,
WHARTON, AUSTIN, WALLER, HARRIS, SAN JACINTO, TRINITY COUNTIES.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE HAVE BEEN NO FURTHER DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE IMPACTS BELOW ARE STILL VALID AND
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
...UPDATED IMPACTS AS OF OCTOBER 11TH...
IN HOUSTON, POLK, AND TRINITY COUNTIES, DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DELAYED HAY
CUTTING AND WINTER PASTURE PLANTING. IN JACKSON, MATAGORDA, WASHINGTON,
COLORADO, AUSTIN AND WHARTON COUNTIES, MANY LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED
TO SUPPLEMENT WITH HAY OR PROTEIN. IN JACKSON COUNTY, TWO TO THREE INCH
CRACKS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE CLAY SOIL. MADISON COUNTY HAS BEEN
IMPACTED THE HARDEST WEST OF I-45 WHERE LIVESTOCK PONDS ARE BEGINNING
TO BECOME PRETTY LOW.
...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF BRAZOS COUNTY, HORSES ARE
HAVING TO BE KEPT OUT OF PASTURES DUE TO LARGE CRACKS ESTIMATED
TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES WIDE. LIVESTOCK ARE NOT BEING ALLOWED TO ROAM
THE PASTURES AND ARE HAVING TO BE HOUSED DIFFERENTLY BECAUSE OF
THE SIZABLE CRACKS IN THE GROUND THAT COULD CAUSE LIVESTOCK TO
FALL. THE GROUND WILL ALSO BE TOO HARD IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
BRAZOS COUNTY TO WORK SEEDBEDS. HAY PRODUCERS MAY BE UNABLE TO
MAKE A FINAL HAY CUT BECAUSE GRASSES ARE NOT PRODUCING DUE TO THE
LACK OF MOISTURE. COTTON HARVESTS ARE UNDERWAY IN SOME AREAS IN
THE COUNTY.
IN MADISON COUNTY, THE CURRENT FORAGE IS NOT IN GOOD SHAPE AND
APPROXIMATELY 80% OF THE HAY FIELDS AND PASTURES ARE RATED POOR
TO FAIR. THEREFORE, RANCHERS ARE HAVING TO FEED HAY AND CUBES
EARLIER THAN NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN, COMMON
PESTS LIKE ARMY WORMS HAVE BEEN SUBDUED, BUT HAS AIDED IN THE
INCREASE OF GRASSHOPPERS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING CROP PRODUCTION.
GRASSES APPEAR YELLOW AND ARE FRAGILE AND EASY TO BREAK.
IN BURLESON COUNTY, NEARLY ALL OF THE CORN HAS BEEN HARVESTED, AND
COTTON THAT HAS BLOOMED IS CURRENTLY BEING PICKED, SO NOT TOO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DROUGHT IMPACTS TO CROPS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY.
IN WASHINGTON COUNTY, SOME OF THE GRASS FIRES HAVE BEEN TAMED BY
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT WAS RECEIVED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
OTHERWISE, THE ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING CRACKS IN THE GROUND OF
APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 3 INCHES WIDE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 0-10 CM BELOW GROUND RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTAGES ARE BETWEEN 15-25% ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO
TO GRIMES TO NORTHERN WALKER AND HOUSTON COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTWARD.
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
FIRE IMPACTS... AS OF OCTOBER 11TH, THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE
UNDER BURN BANS... HOUSTON, JACKSON, COLORADO, AUSTIN, WALLER,
WASHINGTON, WALKER, BURLESON, BRAZOS, GRIMES, MONTGOMERY, AND
MADISON COUNTIES.
THE KEETCH-BRYAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)... KBDI IS AN INDEX USED TO
DETERMINE FOREST FIRE POTENTIAL, WHICH IS BASED ON A DAILY WATER
BALANCE CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE. THE KBDI CAN
RANGE FROM 0 TO 800, WHERE A VALUE OF 0 REPRESENTS NO MOISTURE
DEPLETION, AND 800 WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF ABSOLUTELY DRY
CONDITIONS. A KBDI BETWEEN 600 AND 800 IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERE DROUGHT AND INCREASED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE
LISTS THE KBDI FOR COUNTIES ACROSS THE REGION AS OF OCTOBER 11TH
THAT ARE EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KBDI 400-500... MATAGORDA, HARRIS, MONTGOMERY, CHAMBERS, LIBERTY
KDBI 500-600... WHARTON, SAN JACINTO, POLK
KDBI 600-700... TRINITY, WALKER, WALLER, GRIMES, BRAZOS, AUSTIN,
HOUSTON, COLORADO, JACKSON, MADISON
KBDI 700-800... BURLESON, WASHINGTON
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SO FAR, THE MONTH OF OCTOBER HAS SEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE
RANGED FROM 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE CITY OF HOUSTON
IS CURRENTLY RANKED NUMBER TWO IN TERMS OF WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE COUNTIES WITH THEIR HIGHEST CLASSIFICATION AS
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF OCTOBER 11TH.
D-0...WHARTON, POLK
D-1...MONTGOMERY, HARRIS, COLORADO, AUSTIN, WALLER, AND TRINITY
D-2...HOUSTON, WALKER, JACKSON
D-3...WASHINGTON, BURLESON, MADISON, GRIMES, BRAZOS
A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS
CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS CAN BE FOUND BELOW:
D3...EXTREME DROUGHT - SOIL HAS LARGE CRACKS AND SOIL MOISTURE IS
VERY LOW.
D2...SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D1...MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.
RESERVOIRS OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D0...ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
WATER DEFICITS.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LOCAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK CALLS FOR BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ALONG I-45 AND EASTWARD. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL
COMES MIDWEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
FOR THE MONTH OCTOBER, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
(CPC) IS CALLING FOR A 56% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 33%
CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND 11% CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CPC IS ALSO FORECASTING AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE, BELOW,
AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THE
THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK (FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER) FROM CPC SHOWS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A 44% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 33%
CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND 23% CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WITH REGARDS TO RAINFALL, THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK FROM
CPC SHOWS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE, BELOW, AND
NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS STREAMFLOWS AS OF OCTOBER 11TH... MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL
STREAMFLOW VALUES ALONG THE TRINITY, BRAZOS, AND SAN BERNARD RIVERS.
LAVACA, NAVIDAD, AND COLORADO RIVERS HAVE SEEN BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW VALUES. WITH SOME RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST, THESE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THE SAME IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.
LAKE NAME DATE LEVEL PERCENT FULL (%)
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE 10/11 96.2
LAKE LIVINGSTON 10/11 95.3
LAKE CONROE 10/11 90.3
LAKE HOUSTON 10/11 92.4
LAKE SOMERVILLE 10/11 98.6
LAKE TEXANA 10/11 75.2
NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUANCE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR NEAR
OCTOBER 17TH, 2019. IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN, AN UPDATE MAY BE
PROVIDED AT AN EARLIER DATE.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
1. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING AGRICULTURE IMPACTS, PLEASE
REFERENCE THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL BEND UNDER THE TEXAS CROP AND
WEATHER REPORT AT:
- HTTPS://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG/2018/05/30/TEXAS-CROP-AND-WEATHER-REPORT
-MAY-30-2018/
2. FOR THE LATEST KBDI:
- HTTP://TWC.TAMU.EDU/KBDI
3. FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, PLEASE
REFERENCE THE FOLLOWING:
- HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
4. FOR A LIST OF TEXAS PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS LIMITING WATER USE TO
AVOID SHORTAGES, PLEASE REFERENCE THE FOLLOWING:
- HTTPS://WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINGWATER/TROT/DROUGHTW.HTML
5. FOR LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS:
- HTTPS://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE
6. FOR RESOURCES SPECIFIC TO LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION, PLEASE
REFERENCE THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON OFFICE:
- HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HGX/DROUGHT
7. BURN BAN INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND HERE:
- HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG
8. LOCAL COUNTY PAGES EXPERIENCING BURN BANS OR SEVERE DROUGHT CAN
BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGES:
- HTTP://WWW.CO.JACKSON.TX.US/
- HTTP://WWW.CO.MATAGORDA.TX.US/
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS PRODUCED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-
LINCOLN, THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, AND THE
NATIONAL OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, INCLUDING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATE DATA CENTER
(NCDC). OTHER AGENCIES INCLUDE THE USGS, USDA, AND STATE/REGIONAL
CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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