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I've been watching the GFS flip flop showing cooler weather around Oct 4th...one run it's there, next run it's gone, etc...I'm ready for a change....let's GO....

It’s been pretty consistent recently

After taking a few runs off the GFS is back showing a strong hurricane in the Western Gulf.

A second cool front looks to protect our area and pushes towards the BoC.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:26 pm After taking a few runs off the GFS is back showing a strong hurricane in the Western Gulf.

A second cool front looks to protect our area and pushes towards the BoC.

Yeah, the Oct 4 cold front slaps the hurricane back Tampico.

The models are backing off the idea of a cold front the first weekend of October. We may have to wait a while longer for that first real Fall Front.

I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:31 am I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.

It kinda looks to me that the 0Z Euro brings the "remnants" of Karen into the mid Texas coast on the morning of 10/5.

Kludge wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:52 am

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:31 am I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.

It kinda looks to me that the 0Z Euro brings the "remnants" of Karen into the mid Texas coast on the morning of 10/5.

The 00Z Euro suggests a broad area of potential vorticity attempting to organize in the SW Caribbean. That has the appearance in my view of a broad area of monsoonal/Central America lower pressure we can see in that area. Of particular interest to me is the pattern does look conducive for potential development as that robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave progresses further East across the Atlantic toward Africa. We need rain for you folks near/around the Brazos Valley. Fingers crossed you folks can get some rainfall without is being from any sort of tropical mischief.

Half the state is in either in moderate to extreme drought. A weak TS moving at a steady pace from Brownsville to Lubbock would be welcome.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg ... X_none.jpg

For some reason the wait for this front this years front is really discouraging... I can remember some hot days in October but we have at least had a few days with a nice tease of cooler air.

looks like Oct 4 front won't happen but now showing something on Oct 10...maybe....hopefully....at least by Thanksgiving, huh? lol

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html


could be some good rains next weekend 3rd straight run for euro

Warm and dry through the middle of the month per ensemble, Canadian, w/e

So what is this i hear about a cool front around the 7th?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:07 pm So what is this i hear about a cool front around the 7th?

Every front the models have shown so far has been a failure....I wouldnt believe anything they show more than 2 days out.

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

We might need a front to keep any potential tropical issues from heading this way.

Because the models are slowly coming into agreement that there may be a weak system coming from the NW Caribbean towards the western/central gulf later this week.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:20 pm For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

I hope not!

We are all awaiting cooler weather for October and must still watch the tropics. I will always remember the large NGOM Halloween Hurricane Juan of 1985. Juan had a large wind field which effected SE TX and made its first landfall Oct 28th near Morgan City, LA. Juan did a loop and made a second landfall Oct 31st at Pensacola, FL. I was amazed that we still had some gusty N winds from departing Juan on my birthday Nov 2nd along the Upper TX Coast.