October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:36 pm The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!
Falling in line with the re-calibrated GFW, who delayed the front by 4 days. Can't wait.

In the meantime, HOT.

Very humid this am, too.
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Area we've been talking about in the NW Caribbean is in the latest outlook from the nhc.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Man mowing the lawn today was a little rough. Luckily, it is looking more and more likely our "first" front will push through next Monday/Tuesday. Interesting to note how aggressive. the ECMWF has been over the last couple of runs. Could we flirt with a low in the upper 40s?
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

With the anticipated cold front no worries about the NW carib cruiser
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Another hot and humid day across SE TX as we begin October. However a change continues to look more likely. From this mornings Hou-Gal NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

October begins as September ends - hot, and relatively dry. While this should largely define at least the first few days of the month, change is on the way. A cold front will work its way into Texas - not enough to reach here, but winds could turn enough to allow some modestly drier and cooler air to filter in for the weekend. A reinforcing cold front increasingly looks to finally give Southeast Texas its first cold front of the fall early next week. It`s not yet a sure bet, but confidence and hopes are increasing.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2019-10-01 at 5.14.30 AM.png
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:53 am The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.
I’ll believe the models about this front when it’s inside of 3 days. How many times do models have a decent front for us in the medium to long range and then slowly drop it as it gets closer? It seems like that happens a lot!
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:23 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:53 am The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.
I’ll believe the models about this front when it’s inside of 3 days. How many times do models have a decent front for us in the medium to long range and then slowly drop it as it gets closer? It seems like that happens a lot!
We do NOT need that kind of negativity in here! Lol
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:23 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:53 am The 12Z GFS suggests dew points in the mid to upper 40's Tuesday morning with locations away from the Urban areas possibly reaching temperatures in the low to mid 60's.
I’ll believe the models about this front when it’s inside of 3 days. How many times do models have a decent front for us in the medium to long range and then slowly drop it as it gets closer? It seems like that happens a lot!
I'll believe the models after the front has already blown through. I remember waiting until mid Novermber on more than one occasion before fall got its act together down here. :( :(
User avatar
Kludge
Posts: 254
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:53 pm
Location: Bedias, Texas
Contact:

It appears to me from my untrained eye that the 12Z Euro has that NW Caribbean crawler headed toward the TX coast until the front in question actually comes all the way through and causes it to curve toward FL.

So if there is skepticism (which I share) that the front makes it through... does that open the door for more moisture from the gulf?

The drought-stricken, heat-baked optimist in me would like to see a no-lose situation here. ;)
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

GFS, Canadian, Ensembles advertising a second cold front about 11th/12th after the 7th/8th Oct front.

Euro on board with front #1

Canadian is the outlier on a busted front #1 near Hearne.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Ooooo, is like a 10/11 front as well. Bring it on!
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.AVIATION...
Any fog that has developed across the area will lift and dissipate
in the next couple of hours. For the rest of the day, VFR except
in/around any SHRA/TSRA that develop around the area as activity
moves onshore and further inland. Tonight looks quiet again until
another round of fog formation during the overnight hours. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The anomalously hot, late-summer type of weather looks to continue
into the weekend as an end of the week front stalls out in
northeast Texas, but finally gets pushed through our area early
next week as a reinforcing front arrives.

We`ll also be keeping an eye on an area of low pressure currently
in the western Caribbean Sea for indirect impacts on our winds
and moisture availability as it makes its way west towards the Bay
of Campeche and/or southern Gulf of Mexico. The potential for
direct impact on our area is very low, but depending on track and
evolution of the low pressure area, it can impact our sensible
weather by influencing winds and moisture reaching Southeast
Texas.

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...

Starting to see some clouds move into the area from the Gulf, and
this is expected to continue through the short term period. Some fog
developing early this morning will lift and burn off by mid-morning,
and a similar fog pattern is possible again late tonight through
Thursday morning. Increasing moisture levels (precipitable water
values rising above 1.50 inches as weak disturbances begin moving
westward across the area) will allow for possible shower and
isolated thunderstorm development, mainly near the coast during the
late night through early morning hours and then gradually working
further inland during the daytime hours. Look for little relief in
the area`s recent above normal temperatures with highs in the 90s
for most locations and lows in the 70s inland and lower 80s coast.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Thursday evening, we`ll be looking for the upper ridge to
retreat back towards the Deep South and weaken modestly from its
peak strength earlier in the week. As this happens, expectations
are for highs for the Friday-Sunday period to still be warmer than
typical, but more in the lower 90s rather than the middle 90s.

Looking into things a little beyond the surface glance, there are
two features for this weekend that will have a complicated
interplay and fairly significant (well, relative to our recently
quiescent weather) impacts on some of our weather early in this
longer term.

One feature is the arrival of a cold front trailing a low that
will be ejecting through the Great Lakes and New England Thursday
and Friday. Meanwhile, down over Cancun, a low pressure center
will be starting its push across the Yucatan, emerging into the
Bay of Campeche/Gulf early Saturday. Our local ridging should
hold on long enough to stall this front out well north of our
area. But, depending on how these two features play together, we
should look for our winds to back to easterly, or even
northeasterly for a time this weekend. As a result, even though a
front looks to at least cross the Red River, I`d expect rain
chances to remain relatively low for the weekend over the land.

As we head into next week, model guidance suggests the Gulf
feature to lift more towards the Rio Grande Valley, which starts
to pump more moisture towards our area, and beginning to increase
rain chances over the Gulf waters. At the same time, a surface
high should drop into the Southern Plains from the Rockies, led by
a reinforcing cold front. Timing starts to become REALLY important
here as we`re headed for an inevitable collision between the
advancing cold/dry northwestern air and the tropical slug of
moisture over the Gulf.

Given the disparities between these two airmasses, there`s a
greater than normal amount of uncertainty in the specific
evolution in the weather for the first half of next week, despite
relatively good confidence in the broad strokes. If the tropical
feature is faster, we could see a greater shot at showers and
storms before the cooler and drier air arrives. On the flip side,
a stronger and faster front cold scour things out and eliminate
our shot at rain. For now, the guidance leans pretty strongly
towards limited rain chances, and so the forecast will lean that
way as well. But now that this is still fairly far off, so expect
some wiggle in the exact details on this frontal passage in the
coming days.

MARINE...

Mainly moderate east to northeast winds and elevated seas can be
expected for the remainder of the week and on into much of the
weekend. Caution flags might be needed. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect through this evening for elevated tides and strong
rip currents, and it will probably need to be extended into
Thursday. Still expecting a cold front to move into and through the
coastal waters on Monday with strong northeast winds and rough seas
developing behind the boundary. Advisory flags look likely. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 95 73 92 / 20 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 92 75 92 75 91 / 20 10 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 81 88 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

I'm not buying the GFS temps in the mid 40's on the 18th.....that's going to be a hard sell.....
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:22 pm I'm not buying the GFS temps in the mid 40's on the 18th.....that's going to be a hard sell.....
While mid 40s isn’t rare in October, I don’t buy it because it’s 300 plus out.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 021751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Went ahead and pulled the mention of VCSH out of the TAFs this
afternoon, as any showers or isolated thunderstorms that do
develop will be widely scattered and spotty in coverage. VFR
conditions should prevail across all terminals through at least
the early evening hours, before patch fog develops across isolated
areas in the late evening to early morning hours. Usual suspect
sites such as CXO, SGR, and LBX could see some patchy fog develop
overnight which could reduce visibilities and lower ceilings to
potentially IFR to MVFR criteria, considering both the NAM12 and
SREF guidance. Any fog that does develop should burn off shortly
after sunrise tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will stay light
out of the E to NE through the period, becoming light and variable
overnight.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 95 73 92 71 / 10 20 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 75 92 75 91 73 / 10 30 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 88 81 88 80 / 10 20 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Well lets look at the numbers...
Attachments
October Normals, Means and Extremes For Houston.JPG
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

So on Oct 29, 2017 (Harvey year) it got to 35? I sure don't recall that...
JDsGN
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 10:25 pm
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:47 pm So on Oct 29, 2017 (Harvey year) it got to 35? I sure don't recall that...
I don't remember it that way either. I thought it was warm prior to Halloween and a front came through Halloween evening and it rained on us while hurriedly trick or treating and got really chilly right before I watched the Astros lose game 6 but I could be combining years.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:47 pm So on Oct 29, 2017 (Harvey year) it got to 35? I sure don't recall that...
I’ve recalled a couple of cold Halloween’s since 2014.
Team #NeverSummer
Post Reply
  • Information