October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:20 pm For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.
What is happening now has very little to do with what happens in December through March.

Last year we got real cold in early November and Winter ended up being average.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:27 pm
snowman65 wrote: Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:20 pm For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.
What is happening now has very little to do with what happens in December through March.

Last year we got real cold in early November and Winter ended up being average.
We had flurries in Nov. Then...nothing. A strange El Nino winter.
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djmike
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I have a feeling its going to be a wild and crazy cold winter. The winters that always follows a TS that affects SETX seem to always be wild. Example, harvey! Then that winter following we had it snow 4 times in 1 year here in Beaumont. jMo!
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if we don't get a cold front next week we could be getting some tropical moisture
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srainhoutx
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We will need to watch a tropical wave moving across the Central Caribbean Sea this morning. The marine surface charts suggest a weak area of lower pressure may develop and move little this week across the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities are rather high via the ensembles in the 48 hour timeframe. A weak backdoor front/wind shift may arrive across SE Texas Friday into Saturday. The models have not been all that consistent with a stronger push of drier/cooler air around the 8th of October. Typically the models struggle with these monsoonal/Central America gyre and can rush development. We also can see multiple vorts rotating within the gyre that models have a tough time resolving. Fingers crossed we get that stronger push of drier air off the Coast before this potential mischief gets into the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.
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09302019 24 atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
09302019 48 atlsfc48_latestBW.gif
09302019 TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2019093000_altg_000_048.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:52 am We will need to watch a tropical wave moving across the Central Caribbean Sea this morning. The marine surface charts suggest a weak area of lower pressure may develop and move little this week across the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities are rather high via the ensembles in the 48 hour timeframe. A weak backdoor front/wind shift may arrive across SE Texas Friday into Saturday. The models have not been all that consistent with a stronger push of drier/cooler air around the 8th of October. Typically the models struggle with these monsoonal/Central America gyre and can rush development. We also can see multiple vorts rotating within the gyre that models have a tough time resolving. Fingers crossed we get that stronger push of drier air off the Coast before this potential mischief gets into the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.
I’d rather it come this way as a weak system and dump a few inches of rain on areas that still need it. Mainly west of here.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!
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09302019 Day 7 Surface Chart 9nhwbg_conus.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:36 pm The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!
I'm crossing everything there is to cross.... :lol: :lol:
Cpv17
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I for one am hoping the front backs off. 75% of Texas still needs rain. We don’t need dry weather, but it’s looking more and more likely that this front will indeed make it down here.
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The CPC btw still isn’t believing in the front. They keep us above average all the way through mid October.
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