October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[snowman65]

looks like Oct 4 front won't happen but now showing something on Oct 10...maybe....hopefully....at least by Thanksgiving, huh? lol

[stormlover]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html


could be some good rains next weekend 3rd straight run for euro

[DoctorMu]

Warm and dry through the middle of the month per ensemble, Canadian, w/e

[srainhoutx]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago
Keep an eye on the western Caribbean during the upcoming 5 days. Models are indicating risk for a developing low-pressure system. There has been a good discussion on a Central American Gyre aiding in this genesis, generated by the MJO. This could be a tropical cyclone next week.

[Kingwood36]

So what is this i hear about a cool front around the 7th?

[snowman65]

So what is this i hear about a cool front around the 7th?

Every front the models have shown so far has been a failure....I wouldnt believe anything they show more than 2 days out.

[snowman65]

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

[Scott747]

We might need a front to keep any potential tropical issues from heading this way.

Because the models are slowly coming into agreement that there may be a weak system coming from the NW Caribbean towards the western/central gulf later this week.

[mckinne63]

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

I hope not!

[Katdaddy]

We are all awaiting cooler weather for October and must still watch the tropics. I will always remember the large NGOM Halloween Hurricane Juan of 1985. Juan had a large wind field which effected SE TX and made its first landfall Oct 28th near Morgan City, LA. Juan did a loop and made a second landfall Oct 31st at Pensacola, FL. I was amazed that we still had some gusty N winds from departing Juan on my birthday Nov 2nd along the Upper TX Coast.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

What is happening now has very little to do with what happens in December through March.

Last year we got real cold in early November and Winter ended up being average.

[DoctorMu]

For us cold weather lovers, I have a feeling this is going to be the most depressing winter we've had in a LONG LONG time.

What is happening now has very little to do with what happens in December through March.

Last year we got real cold in early November and Winter ended up being average.

We had flurries in Nov. Then...nothing. A strange El Nino winter.

[djmike]

I have a feeling its going to be a wild and crazy cold winter. The winters that always follows a TS that affects SETX seem to always be wild. Example, harvey! Then that winter following we had it snow 4 times in 1 year here in Beaumont. jMo!

[stormlover]

if we don't get a cold front next week we could be getting some tropical moisture

[srainhoutx]

We will need to watch a tropical wave moving across the Central Caribbean Sea this morning. The marine surface charts suggest a weak area of lower pressure may develop and move little this week across the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities are rather high via the ensembles in the 48 hour timeframe. A weak backdoor front/wind shift may arrive across SE Texas Friday into Saturday. The models have not been all that consistent with a stronger push of drier/cooler air around the 8th of October. Typically the models struggle with these monsoonal/Central America gyre and can rush development. We also can see multiple vorts rotating within the gyre that models have a tough time resolving. Fingers crossed we get that stronger push of drier air off the Coast before this potential mischief gets into the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.

[Cpv17]

We will need to watch a tropical wave moving across the Central Caribbean Sea this morning. The marine surface charts suggest a weak area of lower pressure may develop and move little this week across the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities are rather high via the ensembles in the 48 hour timeframe. A weak backdoor front/wind shift may arrive across SE Texas Friday into Saturday. The models have not been all that consistent with a stronger push of drier/cooler air around the 8th of October. Typically the models struggle with these monsoonal/Central America gyre and can rush development. We also can see multiple vorts rotating within the gyre that models have a tough time resolving. Fingers crossed we get that stronger push of drier air off the Coast before this potential mischief gets into the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.

I’d rather it come this way as a weak system and dump a few inches of rain on areas that still need it. Mainly west of here.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!

[snowman65]

The 12Z Euro continues to suggest much drier air and cooler temperatures arrive around Oct 7/8. Fingers crossed!

I'm crossing everything there is to cross....

[Cpv17]

I for one am hoping the front backs off. 75% of Texas still needs rain. We don’t need dry weather, but it’s looking more and more likely that this front will indeed make it down here.

[Cpv17]

The CPC btw still isn’t believing in the front. They keep us above average all the way through mid October.