October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
754 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT.

* AT 754 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CONROE DAM, OR NEAR CONROE,
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CONROE AROUND 800 AM CDT.
SHENANDOAH AND WOODLOCH AROUND 810 AM CDT.
CUT AND SHOOT AROUND 820 AM CDT.
PORTER HEIGHTS AROUND 830 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Warning cancelled. Front is pushing in quickly. Temperatures have dropped to the Upper 50's in College Station and San Antonio. Those 'colder' temperatures will continue to advance SE this morning. Showers/storms may continue well behind the front throughout the day.

Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front moving across SE TX.

Cold front is currently located just NW of the US 59 corridor and moving to the SE. Temperatures behind the front are falling into the 50’s quickly with Caldwell down to 52 and Brenham 58 with N winds of 20-30mph. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and behind the boundary and this activity will continue as the front progresses southward.

Based on upstream temperatures, will likely need to lower temperatures for today with most areas falling into the 50’s this afternoon away from the coast. This combined with the strong N wind is going to make for an abrupt difference compared to the low 90’s of yesterday.

Cold air advection will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the mid 40’s up north to lower 50’s for much of the area and near 60 along the coast. Clouds look to hang tough through the night and now skies may be slower to clear on Saturday which may keep many areas in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s for much of the day on Saturday. If skies do not clear on Saturday temperatures could remain in the 50’s and with continued NNE winds…it is going to feel “cold”

Warm front will begin to back northward late Sunday and moisture levels rapidly deepen late Sunday into Monday as the warm front moves across the area. Rain chances will be increasing for the first part of next week and some of the rainfall could be heavy at times.

[Kludge]

I got more rain (0.79") in one hour this morning than I've had in total since mid July. That was rough.

[jasons2k]

Solid red line until it gets to my house, then it splits around me.

[DoctorMu]

Tornado Warning cancelled. Front is pushing in quickly. Temperatures have dropped to the Upper 50's in College Station and San Antonio. Those 'colder' temperatures will continue to advance SE this morning. Showers/storms may continue well behind the front throughout the day.

Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!

The rain (surprise!) has been s pleasant change: 0.65 in IMBY. Temp has dropped nearly 30°F. Windy and cloudy. It's nice to stop sweating.

[tireman4]

In Orkando at Mouse World. Stay safe. Just saw radar.

[CrashTestDummy]

Solid red line until it gets to my house, then it splits around me.

That's what kept happening to us last year! We were having to water things, while our neighbors were slogging through the mud.

Currently light north wind here in northern Brazoria Co. Things are VERY humid. 82 deg-F.

Wifey currently sitting on a plane in Orlando airport trying to get home. There's a hold on incoming flights to IAH, so they pushed back from the loading ramp to get their on-time departure set then rolled back to park for more than an hour.

[jasons2k]

Glad some folks got some much-needed rain.

I had .10”

[Cromagnum]

Line came right at my house. Then went north and south without as drop.

[srainhoutx]

850mb front is pushing through NW Harris County. Temperature is falling a bit quicker now. Currently 60F with almost a half inch of rain in the gauge.

[djmike]

Houston! I see the fronts making it through your area. We always seem to get fronts through Beaumont last in the entire state of Texas do to the angle they always come in, but my question is, how much of a drop in temps are you seeing as the front passes over? Im like a giddy little kid when fronts arrive. Currently sweating and 82 in my backyard. Ughh.

[javakah]

Have opened up the doors and windows. Taking a rare opportunity to really air out the house! 59 here.

[snowman65]

OK, cold front....whenever you're ready, sweetheart....lets go lets go....

[djmike]

Right snowman! Still 82 in Beaumont dripping in sweat. C’mon front! You can do it! Believe in yourself! Just keep moving forward and never look back! ...well till sunday. Youll be a hot mess by then. Lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wind chill of 45 in CS. Sitting on the porch of the Dixie Chicken enjoying the air and some good whiskey!

[djmike]

Wow. Its here! 82 now to 62! This feels awesome! Thinking of doing my famous family gumbo recipe tonight! Yes! I think i will! Lol

[unome]

heat index of 94 yesterday seems like a memory - happy to have lower temps, but wow, what a shock to our tropical plants . Lightning tripped our gfci breakers this morning & even set off the smoke detectors briefly - luckily we were able to reset them & no damage - but dang, Fall arrived with a bang y'all !

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
140 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.SHORT TERM [Afternoon through Saturday afternoon]...

Quick update to the forecast to raise chances further across the
north where lift spreading over the 850mb front is expanding
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Also lowered
temperatures a few more degrees given current observational
trends. Wind chill readings of 40-55 blanket the area but the
immediate coast. Hello Fall!
45

[snowman65]

Wow. Its here! 82 now to 62! This feels awesome! Thinking of doing my famous family gumbo recipe tonight! Yes! I think i will! Lol

it's the little things.....was sitting on the patio when it blew through. temp steadily dropping and windy....my second favorite day of the year....lol

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
247 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019

...UPDATE FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

SYNOPSIS...

WITHIN THE NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON FORECAST AREA, THE U.S. DROUGHT 
MONITOR HAS EXPANDED OR ESCALATED THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM 
SEVERE TO EXTREME (D2 TO D3) FOR PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON, BURLESON, 
BRAZOS, MADISON, AND GRIMES COUNTIES AND FROM MODERATE TO 
SEVERE (D1 TO D2) IN PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES. 
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D1) CONTINUE THROUGH PORTIONS OF COLORADO, 
WHARTON, AUSTIN, WALLER, HARRIS, SAN JACINTO, TRINITY COUNTIES. 
UNFORTUNATELY THERE HAVE BEEN NO FURTHER DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS 
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE IMPACTS BELOW ARE STILL VALID AND 
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED. 

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

...UPDATED IMPACTS AS OF OCTOBER 11TH...

IN HOUSTON, POLK, AND TRINITY COUNTIES, DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DELAYED HAY
CUTTING AND WINTER PASTURE PLANTING. IN JACKSON, MATAGORDA, WASHINGTON, 
COLORADO, AUSTIN AND WHARTON COUNTIES, MANY LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED 
TO SUPPLEMENT WITH HAY OR PROTEIN. IN JACKSON COUNTY, TWO TO THREE INCH 
CRACKS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE CLAY SOIL. MADISON COUNTY HAS BEEN 
IMPACTED THE HARDEST WEST OF I-45 WHERE LIVESTOCK PONDS ARE BEGINNING 
TO BECOME PRETTY LOW. 

...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED IMPACTS...

ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF BRAZOS COUNTY, HORSES ARE 
HAVING TO BE KEPT OUT OF PASTURES DUE TO LARGE CRACKS ESTIMATED 
TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES WIDE. LIVESTOCK ARE NOT BEING ALLOWED TO ROAM 
THE PASTURES AND ARE HAVING TO BE HOUSED DIFFERENTLY BECAUSE OF 
THE SIZABLE CRACKS IN THE GROUND THAT COULD CAUSE LIVESTOCK TO 
FALL. THE GROUND WILL ALSO BE TOO HARD IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
BRAZOS COUNTY TO WORK SEEDBEDS. HAY PRODUCERS MAY BE UNABLE TO 
MAKE A FINAL HAY CUT BECAUSE GRASSES ARE NOT PRODUCING DUE TO THE 
LACK OF MOISTURE. COTTON HARVESTS ARE UNDERWAY IN SOME AREAS IN 
THE COUNTY.

IN MADISON COUNTY, THE CURRENT FORAGE IS NOT IN GOOD SHAPE AND 
APPROXIMATELY 80% OF THE HAY FIELDS AND PASTURES ARE RATED POOR 
TO FAIR. THEREFORE, RANCHERS ARE HAVING TO FEED HAY AND CUBES 
EARLIER THAN NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN, COMMON
PESTS LIKE ARMY WORMS HAVE BEEN SUBDUED, BUT HAS AIDED IN THE 
INCREASE OF GRASSHOPPERS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING CROP PRODUCTION. 
GRASSES APPEAR YELLOW AND ARE FRAGILE AND EASY TO BREAK.

IN BURLESON COUNTY, NEARLY ALL OF THE CORN HAS BEEN HARVESTED, AND 
COTTON THAT HAS BLOOMED IS CURRENTLY BEING PICKED, SO NOT TOO MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF DROUGHT IMPACTS TO CROPS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH 
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY. 

IN WASHINGTON COUNTY, SOME OF THE GRASS FIRES HAVE BEEN TAMED BY 
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT WAS RECEIVED OVER THE PAST WEEK. 
OTHERWISE, THE ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING CRACKS IN THE GROUND OF 
APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 3 INCHES WIDE. 

ADDITIONALLY, THE 0-10 CM BELOW GROUND RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE 
PERCENTAGES ARE BETWEEN 15-25% ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO 
TO GRIMES TO NORTHERN WALKER AND HOUSTON COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTWARD.

IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES 
AVAILABLE. 

FIRE IMPACTS... AS OF OCTOBER 11TH, THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE 
UNDER BURN BANS... HOUSTON, JACKSON, COLORADO, AUSTIN, WALLER, 
WASHINGTON, WALKER, BURLESON, BRAZOS, GRIMES, MONTGOMERY, AND 
MADISON COUNTIES.

THE KEETCH-BRYAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)... KBDI IS AN INDEX USED TO 
DETERMINE FOREST FIRE POTENTIAL, WHICH IS BASED ON A DAILY WATER 
BALANCE CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE. THE KBDI CAN 
RANGE FROM 0 TO 800, WHERE A VALUE OF 0 REPRESENTS NO MOISTURE 
DEPLETION, AND 800 WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF ABSOLUTELY DRY 
CONDITIONS. A KBDI BETWEEN 600 AND 800 IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH 
SEVERE DROUGHT AND INCREASED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE 
LISTS THE KBDI FOR COUNTIES ACROSS THE REGION AS OF OCTOBER 11TH 
THAT ARE EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

KBDI 400-500... MATAGORDA, HARRIS, MONTGOMERY, CHAMBERS, LIBERTY 
KDBI 500-600... WHARTON, SAN JACINTO, POLK 
KDBI 600-700... TRINITY, WALKER, WALLER, GRIMES, BRAZOS, AUSTIN, 
                HOUSTON, COLORADO, JACKSON, MADISON
KBDI 700-800... BURLESON, WASHINGTON


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SO FAR, THE MONTH OF OCTOBER HAS SEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE 
RANGED FROM 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE CITY OF HOUSTON 
IS CURRENTLY RANKED NUMBER TWO IN TERMS OF WARMEST AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURE OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

BELOW IS A LIST OF THE COUNTIES WITH THEIR HIGHEST CLASSIFICATION AS 
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF OCTOBER 11TH. 

D-0...WHARTON, POLK

D-1...MONTGOMERY, HARRIS, COLORADO, AUSTIN, WALLER, AND TRINITY

D-2...HOUSTON, WALKER, JACKSON

D-3...WASHINGTON, BURLESON, MADISON, GRIMES, BRAZOS

A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS 
CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS CAN BE FOUND BELOW:

D3...EXTREME DROUGHT - SOIL HAS LARGE CRACKS AND SOIL MOISTURE IS 
VERY LOW. 

D2...SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER 
SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1...MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. 
RESERVOIRS OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0...ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR 
WATER DEFICITS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LOCAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK CALLS FOR BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ALONG I-45 AND EASTWARD. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL
COMES MIDWEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION. 

FOR THE MONTH OCTOBER, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 
(CPC) IS CALLING FOR A 56% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 33% 
CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND 11% CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. CPC IS ALSO FORECASTING AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE, BELOW, 
AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.  THE 
THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK (FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER) FROM CPC SHOWS 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A 44% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 33% 
CHANCE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND 23% CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. WITH REGARDS TO RAINFALL, THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK FROM 
CPC SHOWS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE, BELOW, AND 
NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

SOUTHEAST TEXAS STREAMFLOWS AS OF OCTOBER 11TH... MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL 
STREAMFLOW VALUES ALONG THE TRINITY, BRAZOS, AND SAN BERNARD RIVERS.
LAVACA, NAVIDAD, AND COLORADO RIVERS HAVE SEEN BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW VALUES. WITH SOME RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST, THESE DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THE SAME IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.

LAKE NAME                 DATE       LEVEL PERCENT FULL (%)
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE       10/11             96.2 
LAKE LIVINGSTON           10/11             95.3
LAKE CONROE               10/11             90.3
LAKE HOUSTON              10/11             92.4
LAKE SOMERVILLE           10/11             98.6
LAKE TEXANA               10/11             75.2


NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUANCE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR NEAR 
OCTOBER 17TH, 2019. IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN, AN UPDATE MAY BE 
PROVIDED AT AN EARLIER DATE. 

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

1. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING AGRICULTURE IMPACTS, PLEASE 
REFERENCE THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL BEND UNDER THE TEXAS CROP AND 
WEATHER REPORT AT:
- HTTPS://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG/2018/05/30/TEXAS-CROP-AND-WEATHER-REPORT
-MAY-30-2018/

2. FOR THE LATEST KBDI:
- HTTP://TWC.TAMU.EDU/KBDI

3. FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, PLEASE 
REFERENCE THE FOLLOWING:
- HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

4. FOR A LIST OF TEXAS PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS LIMITING WATER USE TO 
AVOID SHORTAGES, PLEASE REFERENCE THE FOLLOWING:
- HTTPS://WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINGWATER/TROT/DROUGHTW.HTML

5. FOR LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS: 
- HTTPS://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

6. FOR RESOURCES SPECIFIC TO LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION, PLEASE 
REFERENCE THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
HOUSTON/GALVESTON OFFICE:
- HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HGX/DROUGHT

7. BURN BAN INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND HERE:
- HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

8. LOCAL COUNTY PAGES EXPERIENCING BURN BANS OR SEVERE DROUGHT CAN 
BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGES:
- HTTP://WWW.CO.JACKSON.TX.US/
- HTTP://WWW.CO.MATAGORDA.TX.US/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS PRODUCED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN 
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-
LINCOLN, THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, AND THE 
NATIONAL OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, INCLUDING THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATE DATA CENTER 
(NCDC). OTHER AGENCIES INCLUDE THE USGS, USDA, AND STATE/REGIONAL 
CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS.