October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 161034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...
Cold front is currently making its way to the coast this morning
with somewhat spotty coverage along it so far. This front is ex-
pected to move off the coast by 12Z/7AM and we could see another
burst of development as it moves through the coastal waters this
afternoon. Cooler/drier weather on tap for tonight and tomorrow.
Overnight lows progged to fall into the 50s inland and lower/mid
60s at the coast. However, we may not see a lot of the mid/upper
level clouds clear until Fri. A trailing upper low (left way be-
hind the main upper trof) over WTX is expected to meander to the
east (towards SE TX) by Thurs...drawing abundant moisture/clouds
across from the Pacific over the area. Not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this pattern, but given the shallow nature
of the cool airmass, especially along the coast, wouldn`t be too
surprised if there were a few spits here and there. Temperatures
tomorrow may be a category cooler than currently in the grids if
these clouds do verify. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Clearing skies and slightly warming temperatures on tap starting
Fri on into the weekend. Light winds with perhaps a very weak re-
inforcing shot of dry air on Sat could make for a quiet few days.
Models/TPC are still monitoring the possibility of something dev-
eloping in the Bay of Campeche around this time, but the progged
flow aloft should keep its track away from SE TX.

Rain chances are set to return to the CWA by Sun afternoon as the
onshore flow strengthens a bit in response to the next upper sys-
tem moving off the Rockies. This next upper trof looks rather im-
pressive as it deepens over the Central Plains on Sun night...and
drags a strong cold front into SE TX on Mon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front pushing off the coast will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Texas Coastal Waters this morning.
Northerly winds strengthening through the afternoon with SCA
conditions developing late this afternoon or more likely early this
evening and persisting through most of the night relaxing slightly
Thursday morning. A tropical disturbance may move from the Bay of
Campeche Friday northeast towards the New Orleans area Saturday or
Saturday night. This may bump up winds and seas depending on the
level of organization it acquires. Another cold front should arrive
on Monday with SCA conditions in it`s wake.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings north near the cold front - LFK-UTS-CLL line - pushing
steadily southward. Cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving
through the Houston terminals at 10z and should be out of these by
12z with the trend for these to weaken as they move east-southeast
with impacts to LBX/GLS/PSX areas 11-14z. Ceilings in the wake of
the storms and the front should fluctuate between 800-1600ft with a
slow rising trend to the ceilings through 15z then steady out with
MVFR ceilings through 15-17z north and 17-20z IAH/HOU and lastly 20-
01z for the LBX/GLS terminals. Winds should become gusty northerly
with the arrival of the front and may gust as high as 25 knots. VFR
conditions taking hold across the entire area by 01z. Upper level
low is still west of the area and may be dealing with mid/upper
level cloudiness through Thursday. Potential tropical disturbance in
the Gulf Friday could bring back clouds/precip to the coastal areas
Friday with potential for brief MVFR conditions near the coast and
patchy fog well inland Saturday morning.
45

&&

.CLIMATE...
Yesterday was a hot one with numerous records set. Record high mins
tied or broken at CLL/IAH/HOU/GLS some were long standing records.
Record high tied at IAH. No records should be in jeopardy today or
for that matter through the weekend.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 53 73 54 81 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 58 73 58 80 / 50 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 65 74 68 80 / 80 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
late tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Cromagnum]

Not a deluge but at least got some reasonable make up rain as after the initial storms. It was rough in Angleton for s little while though!

[srainhoutx]

I managed to pick up almost an inch and a half the past 2 two days. Cooler air has arrived in NW Harris County. It's looking more likely that an area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf may organize and spread heavy rain toward the Florida Panhandle. Other than some higher tides, no impact expected along the Texas Coast. Once we get past Saturday/Sunday, I believe we can stick a fork in any 90's for daytime highs going forward. Fall fronts are going to become more frequent as we near the end of October.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I managed to pick up almost an inch and a half the past 2 two days. Cooler air has arrived in NW Harris County. It's looking more likely that an area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf may organize and spread heavy rain toward the Florida Panhandle. Other than some higher tides, no impact expected along the Texas Coast. Once we get past Saturday/Sunday, I believe we can stick a fork in any 90's for daytime highs going forward. Fall fronts are going to become more frequent as we near the end of October.

Love it. Now let’s turn our eyes to some 30s and 40s!

[Cpv17]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

I love cold Halloween’s!

[snowman65]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

I'm not really seeing anything to get excited about just yet, unless I'm missing something...which I often am LOL

[Cpv17]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

I'm not really seeing anything to get excited about just yet, unless I'm missing something...which I often am LOL

Oh it’s definitely there. Good chance at some 40’s.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Both Euro and GFS have been showing a lot of 40s that week. Some runs have showed Montgomery and N in the 30s

[tireman4]

84
FXUS64 KHGX 171440
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
940 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Made a few tweaks to sky grids as cirrus shield remains rather
thick over the eastern half of the CWA with a some breaks toward
the west. The implications will be more sun out west and warmer
temperatures and cooler to the east under the clouds. Lower MaxT
grids about 3-4 degrees over the east and kept them the same out
west. Rest of the forecast looks good to go. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...
A cool/dry start to the day with mild conditions persisting thru
this afternoon as mid/high clouds increase from the SW. These increased
clouds will be courtesy of a well-defined upper low that was left
behind over West TX (from the main long wave trof yesterday that
is now currently affecting the NE U.S.). Not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this system as it moves across this
afternoon/evening as the air mass will be too dry (across northern
half of the CWA), but can`t totally rule out a few sprinkles
along the coast. Highs today should top off in the lower/mid 70s
range...cooling off once again tonight as clouds clear to the E.

As surface high pressure (centered over the Mid MS River Valley)
moves off to the NE, onshore winds set to return on Fri. Warming
temperatures will be on tap. Still no issues for SE TX with that
disturbance currently near the Bay of Campeche as TPC/models are
keeping its track toward the NE Gulf for Fri or Sat. 41

LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
Will be keeping with warming temperatures across SE TX for Sat/Sun
even with the passage of a weak reinforcing shot of drier air over
the northern half of the CWA. Some very isolated activity is possible
Sat afternoon as this boundary moves into the area, but we`ll
likely be capped and available moisture sparse. Moisture return is
really set to pick up late Sun as the next upper trof begins
deepening over the Plains. Global models are keeping progs of a
highly amplified system as it moves east and drags a strong cold
front in and across the state Sun Night/Mon. 41

MARINE...
Northeasterly flow gradually relaxing today as high pressure over
Texas weakens and slides east. SCEC conditions through noon
nearshore quickly relaxing late afternoon well offshore. An area of
disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche has far more convection
with it than this time yesterday morning. NHC thinking that this
system has a 70 percent chance of development as it tracks steadily
northeast towards the northeastern Gulf Coast. Depending on the
development and timing some minor impacts possible over the Upper
Texas Coastal waters with slightly larger seas and swells with rip
currents Friday night/Saturday. Moderate to strong onshore flow
develops Sunday night as next big upper trough approaches and LLJ
cranks up over E TX/AR...probably reaching at least SCEC. The
associated cold front swings through the waters Monday afternoon
with SCA conditions for 20 knot northerly flow.
45

AVIATION...
VFR. Mid/high clouds streaming (nice baroclinic leaf) over the area
from the southwest on the east side of the upper level low near Del
Rio that is slowly marching eastward. Expect the high cloudiness to
persist through 20z then clear quickly as the upper dry slot wraps
around. Light northeasterly winds prevailing today becoming calm
tonight.

Weekend outlook possibly some patchy MVFR ceilings generally along
and west of the I-45 corridor Saturday morning and more likely to be
west of a SGR-CXO line followed by warm southwesterly flow. Rain
chances creeping up Sunday with very weak surface trough dipping
down to near CLL Saturday night then retreating quickly north as
warm and much more humid air surges into the area Sunday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 51 82 62 88 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 71 55 81 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 67 79 71 85 / 0 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43

[Texaspirate11]

Both Euro and GFS have been showing a lot of 40s that week. Some runs have showed Montgomery and N in the 30s

OKAY thats tooooo cold.....

[snowman65]

Both Euro and GFS have been showing a lot of 40s that week. Some runs have showed Montgomery and N in the 30s

OKAY thats tooooo cold.....

No such thing....does not compute....

[jasons2k]

“Mostly sunny” today, it is not.

[Cpv17]

“Mostly sunny” today, it is not.

You know we don’t even see much sun anymore after cold fronts these days lol a lot of overrunning moisture streaming in off the pacific. Seems like cold fronts no longer clear things out.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has lows in the upper 30’s to low 40’s Sunday October 27th. Highs in the 50’s for a couple days as well.

[TexasBreeze]

“Mostly sunny” today, it is not.

You know we don’t even see much sun anymore after cold fronts these days lol a lot of overrunning moisture streaming in off the pacific. Seems like cold fronts no longer clear things out.

I notice that as well and even if they do, it is only for 1 day or so. Looks like that pattern this season too.

[jasons2k]

The 12z Euro has lows in the upper 30’s to low 40’s Sunday October 27th. Highs in the 50’s for a couple days as well.

End-of-season fall ball tournament is gonna be chilly out on the fields!! Time to make gumbo. In the meantime, go Astros!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Now that my Cards are out, Go Stros!

[Katdaddy]

SE TX weather history this evening: The 1994 Flood.

[djmike]

When does the first front normally happen that STAYS cool? Oct? Nov? This 1-1/2 days of cool Weather, then summer time again is for the birds.