October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 150950
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow]...
Radar not quite as active this morning (so far) as it was yester-
day...with only some very light/isolated showers noted across the
the northern counties (streaming from the west) and the over Gulf
waters (moving northward toward the coast). Near-term models seem
to keep the bulk of the activity over these general locations to-
day...with the best POPs not until late this afternoon/tonight as
the next cold front begins its approach.

With rather high PWs (2.2 to 2.4 inches) in place over SE TX, the
best lift looks to be with the cold front itself as it moves into
the CWA. Current near-term progs are indicating a slightly faster
timing of this front (starting 00Z or so), but they could also be
pinging on a prefrontal trof(?). But for now will be keeping with
the going/previous timing of 05Z - 12Z...with the higher POPs be-
ginning across the northern counties this evening. Limited insta-
bilities with the better dynamics/upper support progged for loca-
tions further N of the region should keep the stronger storms out
of the CWA. We`ll likely see decent swaths of rainfall totals av-
eraging around 1/2 to 1 inch with isolated 3 inches possible from
tonight through tomorrow morning. Skies and POPs will be clearing
from the NW to SE by tomorrow afternoon. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Tuesday Night]...
While cooler/drier weather will be settling in over the region by
tomorrow night, the synoptic pattern is trying to keep things in-
teresting. A trailing upper trof/closed low meandering from far W
to Central TX (behind the main upper trof) along with the shallow
nature of this cool air mass will help with quick the return low-
ish rain chances in for our SW locales and coastal waters by Thur
afternoon/night.

Also of some concern in the extended will be the possibility of a
weak disturbance developing over the Bay of Campeche by late Thur
and Fri. Not expecting any significant issues for SE TX if we are
looking ahead - mainly just marine issues (increased swells, etc)
given the progged upper pattern. 41

&&


.MARINE...
Onshore flow 8-15kts with a few showers this morning then expect
coverage to decrease this afternoon only to redevelop late
evening/early Wednesday. Cold front pushes across the coast 5-8 AM
Wednesday with gusty northerly winds and showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms should wane during the
afternoon/early evening Wednesday as series of s/w ripple overhead
and moisture wanes/shifts south. SCA conditions developing in the
wake of the cold front and persisting well into Thursday.

Will need to keep an eye on the tropical Pacific south of Mexico and
the Bay of Campeche for any tropical development Thursday and
Friday. The upper flow currently in the guidance should steer any
development northeast towards LA/MS/FL but this could bring elevated
seas and stronger rip currents over the weekend.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
Mix of IFR/LIFR over the northern sites and MVFR/VFR over the south.
A few sprinkles/virga traversing the northern counties this morning
and nearing CLL/UTS in the next hour or two. Expecting a fairly
typical evolution today with skies becoming scattered/broken around
2500 ft by mid morning then slowly rising cloud bases by late
morning. HRRR and perhaps ARW lining up nicely with s/w in water
vapor imagery approaching the Big Bend area from Mexico. HRRR
enhances convection over the Hill Country and eventually brings
SHRA/TSRA to CLL around 18-20z time frame with a second cluster on
it`s heels 21-23z. Given the expected soundings with abundant
moisture (PW 2-2.15") see little reason to vary from this scenario.
Cold front pushes south and should swing through the northern sites-
CLL 03-06z and IAH around 09z. Will be trending the TAFs toward this
`wetter` solution with VCSH/VCTS or prevailing SHRA/TSRA after 03z.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 63 71 54 76 / 60 80 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 90 71 74 59 74 / 40 80 60 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 80 65 76 / 20 80 60 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 151745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR to MVFR conditions are currently prevailing at most TAF sites
with the occasional lower CIG impacting mainly the northern sites.
There are some scattered showers that may bring light rain to CLL
or UTS over the next few hours. The main area of concern with this
package is the timing of the anticipated cold front tonight. Winds
are expected to become northerly post front beginning around 05z
at the northern TAF sites, around 09z around the Houston TAF
sites, then around 12z at the coastal sites. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passing cold front, so occasional
lower CIGs and visibilities are possible during the early morning
period. The chance for showers decrease tomorrow afternoon, but
some clouds are expected to linger through the day.

Fowler

&&

[jasons2k]

My high today was 95. Pretty warm for mid-October. Watching that rain moving in.

[DoctorMu]

Bust so far here. However, we got 0.5 in of Sunday. Sprinklers still off but really muggy.

[jasons2k]

Not looking too optimistic. Lots of caveats:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
949 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.UPDATE...

Big picture concept of the forecast is still on track as a front
continues on its way towards the area. Have played with
temperature trends a little bit to refine as the front draws
nearer - mainly to allow for temps tomorrow to be a bit cooler in
the north, and a touch warmer near the coast.

The near term...is a bit of a different story. Guidance has been
handling the afternoon and evening convection quite poorly, and so
have had to very significantly alter for radar trends. This also
has impacts on severe potential overnight. The front still looks
likely to force convection, and we`re still looking at a scenario
in which there will be plenty of shear, and there`s at least the
prospect of 1000+ MLCAPE. That said, afternoon storms became
outflow dominant and elevated very quickly, so despite at least
one supercell and an upscale growth to a small line of storms,
there was little impact. Not sure how much we`ll be able to
recover, or if the front will be sufficient to keep the line in
balance with its cold pool, but given the previous convection and
the timing of the frontal line of storms, our severe environment
looks pretty, pretty marginal.

Still, it`s worth having some way to get warnings overnight -
preferably a sufficiently loud one, especially farther north
where we`ll probably have a little bit better potential for severe
weather. It`ll make for a nice safety net overnight as we watch
the convection closely.

[ccbluewater]

Picked up about 1.15" overnight!

[Cromagnum]

Unless this backbuilds it's a bust for the south side. Our lawn got a few drops and that's about it

[jasons2k]

Picked up .71” here. I feel fortunate.

[snowman65]

I think I picked up about 2" just driving to work!

[Texaspirate11]

Great rain at the bay!!! Picked up over an inch so far!

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 161034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...
Cold front is currently making its way to the coast this morning
with somewhat spotty coverage along it so far. This front is ex-
pected to move off the coast by 12Z/7AM and we could see another
burst of development as it moves through the coastal waters this
afternoon. Cooler/drier weather on tap for tonight and tomorrow.
Overnight lows progged to fall into the 50s inland and lower/mid
60s at the coast. However, we may not see a lot of the mid/upper
level clouds clear until Fri. A trailing upper low (left way be-
hind the main upper trof) over WTX is expected to meander to the
east (towards SE TX) by Thurs...drawing abundant moisture/clouds
across from the Pacific over the area. Not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this pattern, but given the shallow nature
of the cool airmass, especially along the coast, wouldn`t be too
surprised if there were a few spits here and there. Temperatures
tomorrow may be a category cooler than currently in the grids if
these clouds do verify. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Clearing skies and slightly warming temperatures on tap starting
Fri on into the weekend. Light winds with perhaps a very weak re-
inforcing shot of dry air on Sat could make for a quiet few days.
Models/TPC are still monitoring the possibility of something dev-
eloping in the Bay of Campeche around this time, but the progged
flow aloft should keep its track away from SE TX.

Rain chances are set to return to the CWA by Sun afternoon as the
onshore flow strengthens a bit in response to the next upper sys-
tem moving off the Rockies. This next upper trof looks rather im-
pressive as it deepens over the Central Plains on Sun night...and
drags a strong cold front into SE TX on Mon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front pushing off the coast will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Texas Coastal Waters this morning.
Northerly winds strengthening through the afternoon with SCA
conditions developing late this afternoon or more likely early this
evening and persisting through most of the night relaxing slightly
Thursday morning. A tropical disturbance may move from the Bay of
Campeche Friday northeast towards the New Orleans area Saturday or
Saturday night. This may bump up winds and seas depending on the
level of organization it acquires. Another cold front should arrive
on Monday with SCA conditions in it`s wake.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings north near the cold front - LFK-UTS-CLL line - pushing
steadily southward. Cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving
through the Houston terminals at 10z and should be out of these by
12z with the trend for these to weaken as they move east-southeast
with impacts to LBX/GLS/PSX areas 11-14z. Ceilings in the wake of
the storms and the front should fluctuate between 800-1600ft with a
slow rising trend to the ceilings through 15z then steady out with
MVFR ceilings through 15-17z north and 17-20z IAH/HOU and lastly 20-
01z for the LBX/GLS terminals. Winds should become gusty northerly
with the arrival of the front and may gust as high as 25 knots. VFR
conditions taking hold across the entire area by 01z. Upper level
low is still west of the area and may be dealing with mid/upper
level cloudiness through Thursday. Potential tropical disturbance in
the Gulf Friday could bring back clouds/precip to the coastal areas
Friday with potential for brief MVFR conditions near the coast and
patchy fog well inland Saturday morning.
45

&&

.CLIMATE...
Yesterday was a hot one with numerous records set. Record high mins
tied or broken at CLL/IAH/HOU/GLS some were long standing records.
Record high tied at IAH. No records should be in jeopardy today or
for that matter through the weekend.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 53 73 54 81 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 58 73 58 80 / 50 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 65 74 68 80 / 80 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
late tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Cromagnum]

Not a deluge but at least got some reasonable make up rain as after the initial storms. It was rough in Angleton for s little while though!

[srainhoutx]

I managed to pick up almost an inch and a half the past 2 two days. Cooler air has arrived in NW Harris County. It's looking more likely that an area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf may organize and spread heavy rain toward the Florida Panhandle. Other than some higher tides, no impact expected along the Texas Coast. Once we get past Saturday/Sunday, I believe we can stick a fork in any 90's for daytime highs going forward. Fall fronts are going to become more frequent as we near the end of October.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I managed to pick up almost an inch and a half the past 2 two days. Cooler air has arrived in NW Harris County. It's looking more likely that an area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf may organize and spread heavy rain toward the Florida Panhandle. Other than some higher tides, no impact expected along the Texas Coast. Once we get past Saturday/Sunday, I believe we can stick a fork in any 90's for daytime highs going forward. Fall fronts are going to become more frequent as we near the end of October.

Love it. Now let’s turn our eyes to some 30s and 40s!

[Cpv17]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

I love cold Halloween’s!

[snowman65]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

I'm not really seeing anything to get excited about just yet, unless I'm missing something...which I often am LOL

[Cpv17]

We’ll need to monitor the 24th-30th time period for some chilly air.

I'm not really seeing anything to get excited about just yet, unless I'm missing something...which I often am LOL

Oh it’s definitely there. Good chance at some 40’s.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Both Euro and GFS have been showing a lot of 40s that week. Some runs have showed Montgomery and N in the 30s

[tireman4]

84
FXUS64 KHGX 171440
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
940 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Made a few tweaks to sky grids as cirrus shield remains rather
thick over the eastern half of the CWA with a some breaks toward
the west. The implications will be more sun out west and warmer
temperatures and cooler to the east under the clouds. Lower MaxT
grids about 3-4 degrees over the east and kept them the same out
west. Rest of the forecast looks good to go. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...
A cool/dry start to the day with mild conditions persisting thru
this afternoon as mid/high clouds increase from the SW. These increased
clouds will be courtesy of a well-defined upper low that was left
behind over West TX (from the main long wave trof yesterday that
is now currently affecting the NE U.S.). Not expecting much by way
of precipitation with this system as it moves across this
afternoon/evening as the air mass will be too dry (across northern
half of the CWA), but can`t totally rule out a few sprinkles
along the coast. Highs today should top off in the lower/mid 70s
range...cooling off once again tonight as clouds clear to the E.

As surface high pressure (centered over the Mid MS River Valley)
moves off to the NE, onshore winds set to return on Fri. Warming
temperatures will be on tap. Still no issues for SE TX with that
disturbance currently near the Bay of Campeche as TPC/models are
keeping its track toward the NE Gulf for Fri or Sat. 41

LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
Will be keeping with warming temperatures across SE TX for Sat/Sun
even with the passage of a weak reinforcing shot of drier air over
the northern half of the CWA. Some very isolated activity is possible
Sat afternoon as this boundary moves into the area, but we`ll
likely be capped and available moisture sparse. Moisture return is
really set to pick up late Sun as the next upper trof begins
deepening over the Plains. Global models are keeping progs of a
highly amplified system as it moves east and drags a strong cold
front in and across the state Sun Night/Mon. 41

MARINE...
Northeasterly flow gradually relaxing today as high pressure over
Texas weakens and slides east. SCEC conditions through noon
nearshore quickly relaxing late afternoon well offshore. An area of
disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche has far more convection
with it than this time yesterday morning. NHC thinking that this
system has a 70 percent chance of development as it tracks steadily
northeast towards the northeastern Gulf Coast. Depending on the
development and timing some minor impacts possible over the Upper
Texas Coastal waters with slightly larger seas and swells with rip
currents Friday night/Saturday. Moderate to strong onshore flow
develops Sunday night as next big upper trough approaches and LLJ
cranks up over E TX/AR...probably reaching at least SCEC. The
associated cold front swings through the waters Monday afternoon
with SCA conditions for 20 knot northerly flow.
45

AVIATION...
VFR. Mid/high clouds streaming (nice baroclinic leaf) over the area
from the southwest on the east side of the upper level low near Del
Rio that is slowly marching eastward. Expect the high cloudiness to
persist through 20z then clear quickly as the upper dry slot wraps
around. Light northeasterly winds prevailing today becoming calm
tonight.

Weekend outlook possibly some patchy MVFR ceilings generally along
and west of the I-45 corridor Saturday morning and more likely to be
west of a SGR-CXO line followed by warm southwesterly flow. Rain
chances creeping up Sunday with very weak surface trough dipping
down to near CLL Saturday night then retreating quickly north as
warm and much more humid air surges into the area Sunday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 51 82 62 88 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 71 55 81 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 67 79 71 85 / 0 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43