October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[DoctorMu]

GFS, Canadian, Ensembles advertising a second cold front about 11th/12th after the 7th/8th Oct front.

Euro on board with front #1

Canadian is the outlier on a busted front #1 near Hearne.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ooooo, is like a 10/11 front as well. Bring it on!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.AVIATION...
Any fog that has developed across the area will lift and dissipate
in the next couple of hours. For the rest of the day, VFR except
in/around any SHRA/TSRA that develop around the area as activity
moves onshore and further inland. Tonight looks quiet again until
another round of fog formation during the overnight hours. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The anomalously hot, late-summer type of weather looks to continue
into the weekend as an end of the week front stalls out in
northeast Texas, but finally gets pushed through our area early
next week as a reinforcing front arrives.

We`ll also be keeping an eye on an area of low pressure currently
in the western Caribbean Sea for indirect impacts on our winds
and moisture availability as it makes its way west towards the Bay
of Campeche and/or southern Gulf of Mexico. The potential for
direct impact on our area is very low, but depending on track and
evolution of the low pressure area, it can impact our sensible
weather by influencing winds and moisture reaching Southeast
Texas.

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...

Starting to see some clouds move into the area from the Gulf, and
this is expected to continue through the short term period. Some fog
developing early this morning will lift and burn off by mid-morning,
and a similar fog pattern is possible again late tonight through
Thursday morning. Increasing moisture levels (precipitable water
values rising above 1.50 inches as weak disturbances begin moving
westward across the area) will allow for possible shower and
isolated thunderstorm development, mainly near the coast during the
late night through early morning hours and then gradually working
further inland during the daytime hours. Look for little relief in
the area`s recent above normal temperatures with highs in the 90s
for most locations and lows in the 70s inland and lower 80s coast.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Thursday evening, we`ll be looking for the upper ridge to
retreat back towards the Deep South and weaken modestly from its
peak strength earlier in the week. As this happens, expectations
are for highs for the Friday-Sunday period to still be warmer than
typical, but more in the lower 90s rather than the middle 90s.

Looking into things a little beyond the surface glance, there are
two features for this weekend that will have a complicated
interplay and fairly significant (well, relative to our recently
quiescent weather) impacts on some of our weather early in this
longer term.

One feature is the arrival of a cold front trailing a low that
will be ejecting through the Great Lakes and New England Thursday
and Friday. Meanwhile, down over Cancun, a low pressure center
will be starting its push across the Yucatan, emerging into the
Bay of Campeche/Gulf early Saturday. Our local ridging should
hold on long enough to stall this front out well north of our
area. But, depending on how these two features play together, we
should look for our winds to back to easterly, or even
northeasterly for a time this weekend. As a result, even though a
front looks to at least cross the Red River, I`d expect rain
chances to remain relatively low for the weekend over the land.

As we head into next week, model guidance suggests the Gulf
feature to lift more towards the Rio Grande Valley, which starts
to pump more moisture towards our area, and beginning to increase
rain chances over the Gulf waters. At the same time, a surface
high should drop into the Southern Plains from the Rockies, led by
a reinforcing cold front. Timing starts to become REALLY important
here as we`re headed for an inevitable collision between the
advancing cold/dry northwestern air and the tropical slug of
moisture over the Gulf.

Given the disparities between these two airmasses, there`s a
greater than normal amount of uncertainty in the specific
evolution in the weather for the first half of next week, despite
relatively good confidence in the broad strokes. If the tropical
feature is faster, we could see a greater shot at showers and
storms before the cooler and drier air arrives. On the flip side,
a stronger and faster front cold scour things out and eliminate
our shot at rain. For now, the guidance leans pretty strongly
towards limited rain chances, and so the forecast will lean that
way as well. But now that this is still fairly far off, so expect
some wiggle in the exact details on this frontal passage in the
coming days.

MARINE...

Mainly moderate east to northeast winds and elevated seas can be
expected for the remainder of the week and on into much of the
weekend. Caution flags might be needed. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect through this evening for elevated tides and strong
rip currents, and it will probably need to be extended into
Thursday. Still expecting a cold front to move into and through the
coastal waters on Monday with strong northeast winds and rough seas
developing behind the boundary. Advisory flags look likely. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 95 73 92 / 20 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 92 75 92 75 91 / 20 10 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 81 88 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[snowman65]

I'm not buying the GFS temps in the mid 40's on the 18th.....that's going to be a hard sell.....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm not buying the GFS temps in the mid 40's on the 18th.....that's going to be a hard sell.....

While mid 40s isn’t rare in October, I don’t buy it because it’s 300 plus out.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 021751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Went ahead and pulled the mention of VCSH out of the TAFs this
afternoon, as any showers or isolated thunderstorms that do
develop will be widely scattered and spotty in coverage. VFR
conditions should prevail across all terminals through at least
the early evening hours, before patch fog develops across isolated
areas in the late evening to early morning hours. Usual suspect
sites such as CXO, SGR, and LBX could see some patchy fog develop
overnight which could reduce visibilities and lower ceilings to
potentially IFR to MVFR criteria, considering both the NAM12 and
SREF guidance. Any fog that does develop should burn off shortly
after sunrise tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will stay light
out of the E to NE through the period, becoming light and variable
overnight.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 95 73 92 71 / 10 20 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 75 92 75 91 73 / 10 30 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 88 81 88 80 / 10 20 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08

[tireman4]

Well lets look at the numbers...

[snowman65]

So on Oct 29, 2017 (Harvey year) it got to 35? I sure don't recall that...

[JDsGN]

So on Oct 29, 2017 (Harvey year) it got to 35? I sure don't recall that...

I don't remember it that way either. I thought it was warm prior to Halloween and a front came through Halloween evening and it rained on us while hurriedly trick or treating and got really chilly right before I watched the Astros lose game 6 but I could be combining years.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So on Oct 29, 2017 (Harvey year) it got to 35? I sure don't recall that...

I’ve recalled a couple of cold Halloween’s since 2014.

[srainhoutx]

Unfortunately the models are trending weaker with that cold front Sunday/Monday. If the overnight guidance verifies, we may see the outlying areas dip to the mid/upper 60's for lows and daytime highs near 90F.

[snowman65]

Unfortunately the models are trending weaker with that cold front Sunday/Monday. If the overnight guidance verifies, we may see the outlying areas dip to the mid/upper 60's for lows and daytime highs near 90F.

Of course they are That's why I don't trust anything more than 2 days out.

[Kingwood36]

Thats what i hate...the hype..you see ppl like herzog and especially collin meyers from 13 hyping this thing as legit and now as it gets closer here goes the models..as previously stated..dont buy into anything less then 2 or 3 days out

[Texaspirate11]

Whats wrong with 60's at???? The HIGH on Tuesday is 82 - sure beats upper 90s
I sure would like some rain, though

[redneckweather]

The GFS looks good in my opinion. A half decent front to begin the work week then a real nice front to end the work week going into the weekend.

[Cpv17]

The GFS looks good in my opinion. A half decent front to begin the work week then a real nice front to end the work week going into the weekend.

Yeah, but like I’ve said in the past, the fronts look strong in the medium to long range on the models and then lose steam as they get closer. That happens a lot! That’s why I’m so reluctant to believe anything over 3 days out.

[tireman4]

75
FXUS64 KHGX 031505
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1005 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Light northeast flow this morning will begin to turn more
east and southeast later this morning and continuing into the
afternoon hours. Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s with
Houston taking the higher end of the temperature spectrum thus
far. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s across the
area this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine expected across the
southern coastal areas with more clouds expected northern areas
as daytime heating kicks in. A weak wave moving from east to west
in the northern Gulf may provide just the spark for a few showers
and thunderstorms mainly northern areas this afternoon.

Current forecast hourly temperatures on right on the money and
expected highs look great. Do not plan to make any changes to the
forecast at this time. 06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR start to the morning with just a couple sites seeing some MVFR
fog that should be gone shortly after sunrise. With daytime heating,
expecting to see some SHRA development mainly this afternoon (VCSH
in the TAFs from HOU northward). Later this afternoon and on through
the evening hours, might see SHRA/TSRA edge into the area from the
east. For now, will carrying VCSH in the TAFs (IAH and northward)
and wait to see where/when and TSRA develop for TAF amendments. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...

We`re pushing towards the end of just your everyday summer-like
October week. An initial cold front is still expected to stall and
wash out well north of our area, pinning our hopes on a
reinforcing front coming through late Sunday night and Monday to
give us more seasonable conditions. After the front, the first
half of next week looks to be generally dry, with a slow warming
trend.

SHORT TERM [Through Friday]...

A few westward moving showers have developed early this morning
in our far southern waters, and this is the area where the best
concentration of activity is anticipated to be in the morning
hours. Areas of patchy fog that have begun to develop mainly to
the west of I-45 so far should lift and dissipate shortly after
sunrise. As the afternoon progresses and temperatures warm up,
expecting to see isolated to widely scattered shower and thunder-
storm development with the better chances probably setting up to
the east of I-45 as an impulse/disturbance moves westward around
the base of the mid/upper level ridge. Up north, activity could
continue on into the evening and even some of the overnight hours,
so have retained rain chances up in this area. Look for best rain
chances Friday during the day in/around the Matagorda Bay area
and during the afternoon hours mainly near and to the north of
I-10. Above normal temperatures will persist.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

By Friday evening, a cold front will be so close...yet so far
away, stalling out in Northeast Texas. With this front not quite
making it, expectations for the weekend remain a continuation of
our extended summer in Southeast Texas, with highs in the lower
90s and low temperatures generally in the 70s. Some well up in the
north may manage to see the thermometer fall briefly below 70
degrees in the mornings - winds, when not light and variable, may
back enough towards easterly to bring in slightly drier air and
allow overnight temps to dip a bit more.

On Sunday night, high pressure will drop into the Great Plains
from the Rockies, led by a reinforcing cold front. This will
become our first cold front of the fall. The GFS is starting to
get cold feet about the front - it still has a front, but is a bit
weaker with the high. This high skitters more eastward towards the
mid-south, blunting the advance of the front and giving us
something that looks more like a weaker backdoor front. Still the
first front of the year, but not quite as impactful. For now, I`m
holding the forecast more with our previous expectations and more
like the Euro (though even the Euro doesn`t look quite as strong
with the post-frontal airmass push, either. It previously had 850
temps below 10C, which doesn`t happen in the current modeling).
Still expecting this front to knock us down to something more
typical of early fall around here. But, keep in mind that perhaps
the more likely failure mode is on the warmer end. So, if my
forecast is wrong (What? Never!), it`s probably a little more
likely that the front will have less impact than expected, not
more.

Anyway, back on track for the rest of the first half of the week -
high pressure will slide on through the region, but generally be
the most influential feature on our area for the first half of the
week. This should keep the weather fair, with a slow warming trend
through the week. Conditions should also generally pretty dry, but
with winds becoming onshore again once the high moves east of us,
moisture will begin to recover and may provide some potential for
rain at the very end or just beyond the end of the forecast
period.

MARINE...

Light to moderate east to northeast winds can be expected for the
remainder of the week and on into much of the weekend. Caution
flags might be needed. A cold front is expected to move through
the area on Monday with strong northeast winds and rough seas
developing in its wake. Small craft advisories will likely be
needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 94 72 94 / 30 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 75 91 74 91 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 79 87 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 031737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Not many changes to previous TAF thinking this afternoon. Did
limit precip mentions to KHOU/KIAH nwd as latest high res model
runs indicated little to any convection south of these areas
through the forecast period. Also not expecting much convective
development beyond this evening despite the approaching sfc
boundary from the north.

25

[srainhoutx]

Thursday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Not much to discuss in the weather as summer continues along even though we are now in October.

Massive heat ridge over the southern US resulting in numerous both daily and all-time October record highs across the SE and E US is starting to show signs of breaking down. An impressive trough over the western US that has resulted in early season snow of 2-4 feet in portions of MT will begin to progress eastward and help breakdown and flatten the strong ridge over the SE US. As this ridge begins to loosen its grip on the southern US and southern plains a cold front will slide southward down the plains and into TX on Sunday. I am always uneasy about these first fronts on the year and how much “actual” cooling they will bring. Models tend to like to bring more cold air southward than what actually makes it all the way this far south. With that said, the upper level pattern supports a frontal passage late Sunday into Monday with the front pushing across the Gulf waters on Monday and even clearing our outer waters and heading for the central Gulf by Tuesday. Some of this extra acceleration of the boundary southward will be in part with the circulation around a tropical disturbance that will be slowly moving or stationary over the Bay of Campeche this weekend.

Dry air advection and even some cold air advection can be expected on Monday and the likely most noticeable difference between Sunday and Monday will be the sharp drop in humidity values. Highs temperatures near 90 on Sunday will likely only reach the lower to mid 80’s on Monday. Low temperatures will likely see the biggest difference…from the near steady 75-80 each night for the last several months to lows down in the lower 60’s by Tuesday morning. Some of the guidance is wanting to go into the 50’s, but not overly confident it will get that cold just yet.

Not much rain chances with the front as low level winds turn ENE/NE by Saturday and Sunday and reduce the potential for surface convergence. Post frontal air mass will be dry with gusty winds on Monday and with areas generally west of I-45 having largely missed the heavy rainfall of Imelda, fire weather concerns will be possible.

[DoctorMu]

I don't know. The Canadian has become a believer on both fronts - with lows nearing 40 or lower in the Brazos Valley on the 13th. I concur with the wisdom of skepticism on front #1. Just get that dewpoint to the lower 60s or less! Hell, I've given up on rain.



FWIW, Bastardi is calling a flip and a cold November.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 52192?s=20

We'll see.