October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[Texaspirate11]

Both Euro and GFS have been showing a lot of 40s that week. Some runs have showed Montgomery and N in the 30s

OKAY thats tooooo cold.....

[snowman65]

Both Euro and GFS have been showing a lot of 40s that week. Some runs have showed Montgomery and N in the 30s

OKAY thats tooooo cold.....

No such thing....does not compute....

[jasons2k]

“Mostly sunny” today, it is not.

[Cpv17]

“Mostly sunny” today, it is not.

You know we don’t even see much sun anymore after cold fronts these days lol a lot of overrunning moisture streaming in off the pacific. Seems like cold fronts no longer clear things out.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has lows in the upper 30’s to low 40’s Sunday October 27th. Highs in the 50’s for a couple days as well.

[TexasBreeze]

“Mostly sunny” today, it is not.

You know we don’t even see much sun anymore after cold fronts these days lol a lot of overrunning moisture streaming in off the pacific. Seems like cold fronts no longer clear things out.

I notice that as well and even if they do, it is only for 1 day or so. Looks like that pattern this season too.

[jasons2k]

The 12z Euro has lows in the upper 30’s to low 40’s Sunday October 27th. Highs in the 50’s for a couple days as well.

End-of-season fall ball tournament is gonna be chilly out on the fields!! Time to make gumbo. In the meantime, go Astros!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Now that my Cards are out, Go Stros!

[Katdaddy]

SE TX weather history this evening: The 1994 Flood.

[djmike]

When does the first front normally happen that STAYS cool? Oct? Nov? This 1-1/2 days of cool Weather, then summer time again is for the birds.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Changeable weather with a couple of fronts over the next several days.

Dry air mass this morning will result in a comfortable day across the area with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70’s. Southerly winds begin to bring back moisture on Saturday and may see a few showers Saturday afternoon, but more likely on Sunday as moisture deepens. Next front is forecasted to move across the region Monday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms and another shot of cooler and drier air. This air mass will be fairly short lived also with high pressure quickly shifting eastward and yet another front impacting the area about a week from today. Highest rain chance appear to be Sunday night into Monday morning with the next front and it looks like much of the area will see some rainfall with this front as moisture increases ahead of the front and PTC # 16 over the central Gulf of Mexico quickly moves ENE away from the area.

Potential Tropical Cyclone #16:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of SW LA and portions of the AL and FL panhandle.

A broad and still disorganized area of low pressure over the SW-central Gulf of Mexico is showing some consolidation of thunderstorms activity this morning and has begun to move quicker toward the NE ahead of an approaching upper level trough located over SE TX this morning. Forecast models show the system continuing to organize today and it is likely that a sub-tropical or tropical storm will form over the central Gulf of Mexico and then reach the FL coast later tonight into early Saturday. Much of the weather associated with this system will be located well to the northeast and east of the actual surface center which will likely result in the worst of the conditions along the FL west coast from Tampa northward to the FL panhandle. Given the long fetch of SSW winds over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight-Saturday a storm surge event of 4-6 feet above the ground is possible in the head of Apalachee Bay which is extremely vulnerable to storm surge with this sort of wind profile setup.

Little to no impacts area expected along the TX coast with only a slight increase in seas and tides, but the fast forward motion of the system will prevent any longer duration impacts along the coast.

[srainhoutx]

I am preparing myself for the soon relocation to the Great Smokey Mountains. A Freeze Warning was hoisted overnight in Haywood County. Packing continues and a garage sale tomorrow should lighten the load a bit. If everything goes as expected, we literally are in our final days here in the Houston Area.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I am preparing myself for the soon relocation to the Great Smokey Mountains. A Freeze Warning was hoisted overnight in Haywood County. Packing continues and a garage sale tomorrow should lighten the load a bit. If everything goes as expected, we literally are in our final days here in the Houston Area.

I had no idea. Congrats srain!

My parents lived in the Tri-Cities in NE Tennessee for 10 years. Kingsport, to be exact. It is a gorgeous area and one of my favorite places in the country.

[DavidH]

I am preparing myself for the soon relocation to the Great Smokey Mountains. A Freeze Warning was hoisted overnight in Haywood County. Packing continues and a garage sale tomorrow should lighten the load a bit. If everything goes as expected, we literally are in our final days here in the Houston Area.

Thanks a bunch for your knowledge/oversight/guidance and how you deliver it! Hopefully you hang around, cause it ain't gonna be the same if you don't.

[srainhoutx]

I will be around, Gang! Our weather family is a BIG part of my life and certainly my roots are very deep in SE Texas. My Mom is here as well as my Sister and her family. The Houston Area will always be 'home'. As I begin to truly transition to retirement, a new adventure awaits and we are excited to begin this new chapter. The new home sits at 3500 feet above sea level on the side of a mountain. There is actually a Ski Area about 15 miles or so from the new house. Clingmans Dome and the Blue Ridge Parkway are very close by.

I do have a favor to ask of everyone though. Please continue to be active and please continue to support our efforts to keep Weather Infinity going well into the future. It takes everyone working as a Team to keep our online Weather Community as the 'go to' place for accurate and reliable weather information!

[BlueJay]

SE TX weather history this evening: The 1994 Flood.

WOW!

Thanks for sharing this snippet in time with us, Katfdaddy.

[djmike]

Just curious...is there actual science behind choosing Hurricane names? Or does someone just pick any names that start with every letter of the alphabet? Just dawned on me and now my mind is curious. Lol. Anyone ever thought about this?

[tireman4]

0
FXUS64 KHGX 181806
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
106 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.AVIATION...
High pressure was bringing generally clear skies to area
TAF sites. A SCT-BKN025 foot deck clung to the coast and could
affect KGLS for the first few hours of the TAF period. Clear skies
expected through 09z before some lower clouds and reduced visibility
develop with patchy fog possible mainly to the W-NW of the Houston
terminals. Low level moisture increases on Saturday and a SCT to
possibly BKN deck is expected from 15z onward. Could get some
light showers with the return flow Saturday afternoon. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure over the southern Great Lakes will ridge
into SE TX today bringing generally clear skies and seasonable
temperatures. Previous forecast has a good handle on current
conditions so other than some minor tweaks to hourly grids,
previous forecast is good to go. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies and
light winds. There is a chance of some patchy fog and lower CIGs
tonight, but it looks to impact mainly west of Houston. SGR and
LBX will be the TAF sites that will have the best potential of
seeing MVFR to IFR conditions from about 9 to 15z. Saturday will
see increasing high clouds through the day with some scattered
cumulus filtering in by the afternoon/evening.

Fowler

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/...

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Afternoon]...

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low that has been moving
over Texas the past day or so is beginning the exit into the Gulf
this morning. This disturbance helped spawn some isolated
thunderstorms near Galveston over the past couple of hours, but
drier air filtering into the region should bring a stop to any
shower by sunrise. There may be a few lingering clouds during the
morning hours, but increasing subsidence behind the upper level low
will bring mostly clear skies through the afternoon. This combined
with max temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday will
provide fairly pleasant day to southeast Texas. Tonight will also
see the continuation of the mostly benign weather, although some
patchy fog may develop across the western portion of the region.

Saturday will see the warming trend continue with max temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 80s across most of the area. However,
heights will be lowering through the day as an upper level trough
passes through to the north. All guidance but the GFS has no
precipitation reaching our area until around 00z Sunday (the GFS is
the wettest solution with some showers forming during the afternoon
of Saturday). So for this package I only have an increase of clouds
during the day while keeping PoPs under 10 percent through 00z.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

Zonal flow aloft should set the stage for some quick changes as a
weak cold front (not much in the way of cold...more a function of
a dry Pacific cold front) dips down into the northern areas late
Saturday and may see some showers or isolated thunderstorms
develop over the coastal waters or coastal counties early Sunday
morning. The boundary stalls then moves back north as a warm front
with showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered with heating and
shifting into the northern counties in the afternoon. As an upper
trough takes shape and deepens Sunday night/Monday will quickly
draw deeper moisture back into the area as LLJ strengthens keeping
winds up overnight into Monday. The associated cold front swings
through and should produce a wide band of showers/thunderstorms
along the front tracking across SETX. Widespread rainfall of 0.5"
with isolated higher amounts appears more likely with confidence
increasing in the widespread QPF. The cold front moves through
SETX Monday between 4 am and noon. Weak high pressure builds into
the area with dry air blanketing the area. Cooler and drier
weather with high temperatures on Monday peaking in the upper 60s
to mid 70s followed by lows in the 50s. High pressure shifts east
and moisture surges back into the area Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday with rain chances increasing with the next cold front
Thursday night or Friday morning.
45

MARINE...

Winds across the Gulf have been decreasing over the past few hours
resulting in the expiration of the SCEC. Light to moderate
northeasterly flow will continue through the day today becoming
southerly tonight then southwesterly tomorrow. Southerly winds will
increase ahead of an approaching upper level trough over the
weekend, then increasing to at least SCEC criteria by Monday as a
passing cold front ushers in a strong northerly flow.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is currently located in the
central Gulf moving northeasterly towards the Florida Panhandle,
making landfall on Saturday. The cyclone should stay far enough east
to bring only minimal impacts to the Texas coast. The largest impact
would be only slightly elevated seas up to three to five feet this
weekend. Tides may also be slightly elevated, but the quick nature
of the system should keep tides from increasing too much.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 60 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 10 30
Houston (IAH) 80 62 87 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 71 84 77 86 / 10 0 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

[Texaspirate11]

I am preparing myself for the soon relocation to the Great Smokey Mountains. A Freeze Warning was hoisted overnight in Haywood County. Packing continues and a garage sale tomorrow should lighten the load a bit. If everything goes as expected, we literally are in our final days here in the Houston Area.

I will miss our weather chats -
I know though where you are moving to will bring you joy
(and different seasons)
How could you not love the Great Smokey Mountains?

XOX

[jasons2k]

I am preparing myself for the soon relocation to the Great Smokey Mountains. A Freeze Warning was hoisted overnight in Haywood County. Packing continues and a garage sale tomorrow should lighten the load a bit. If everything goes as expected, we literally are in our final days here in the Houston Area.

It’s a beautiful area! I used to go to boy scout camp up there in the summer. I’m glad to hear you will be staying around the forum. Enjoy this new chapter!