October: Chilly Halloween Outlook
I've been watching the GFS flip flop showing cooler weather around Oct 4th...one run it's there, next run it's gone, etc...I'm ready for a change....let's GO....
- MontgomeryCoWx
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It’s been pretty consistent recently
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After taking a few runs off the GFS is back showing a strong hurricane in the Western Gulf.
A second cool front looks to protect our area and pushes towards the BoC.
A second cool front looks to protect our area and pushes towards the BoC.
- srainhoutx
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The models are backing off the idea of a cold front the first weekend of October. We may have to wait a while longer for that first real Fall Front.
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- srainhoutx
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I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.
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It kinda looks to me that the 0Z Euro brings the "remnants" of Karen into the mid Texas coast on the morning of 10/5.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:31 am I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.
- srainhoutx
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The 00Z Euro suggests a broad area of potential vorticity attempting to organize in the SW Caribbean. That has the appearance in my view of a broad area of monsoonal/Central America lower pressure we can see in that area. Of particular interest to me is the pattern does look conducive for potential development as that robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave progresses further East across the Atlantic toward Africa. We need rain for you folks near/around the Brazos Valley. Fingers crossed you folks can get some rainfall without is being from any sort of tropical mischief.Kludge wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:52 amIt kinda looks to me that the 0Z Euro brings the "remnants" of Karen into the mid Texas coast on the morning of 10/5.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:31 am I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.
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Half the state is in either in moderate to extreme drought. A weak TS moving at a steady pace from Brownsville to Lubbock would be welcome.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg ... X_none.jpg
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg ... X_none.jpg
For some reason the wait for this front this years front is really discouraging... I can remember some hot days in October but we have at least had a few days with a nice tease of cooler air.