October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

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snowman65
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October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

Post by snowman65 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:35 am

I've been watching the GFS flip flop showing cooler weather around Oct 4th...one run it's there, next run it's gone, etc...I'm ready for a change....let's GO....

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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:18 am

It’s been pretty consistent recently
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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:26 am

After taking a few runs off the GFS is back showing a strong hurricane in the Western Gulf.

A second cool front looks to protect our area and pushes towards the BoC.

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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:00 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:26 am
After taking a few runs off the GFS is back showing a strong hurricane in the Western Gulf.

A second cool front looks to protect our area and pushes towards the BoC.
Yeah, the Oct 4 cold front slaps the hurricane back Tampico.

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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:53 am

The models are backing off the idea of a cold front the first weekend of October. We may have to wait a while longer for that first real Fall Front.
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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:31 am

I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.
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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by Kludge » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:52 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:31 am
I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.
It kinda looks to me that the 0Z Euro brings the "remnants" of Karen into the mid Texas coast on the morning of 10/5.

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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:33 am

Kludge wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:52 am
srainhoutx wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:31 am
I do see the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a robust monsoonal/Central America gyre developing as October begins. Conditions in the Western Caribbean and portions of the Gulf could be rather favorable for tropical development as a new month begins. The Eastern Pacific is another favorable location, particularly near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We need a good strong cold front to shut down any tropical weather worries along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast.
It kinda looks to me that the 0Z Euro brings the "remnants" of Karen into the mid Texas coast on the morning of 10/5.
The 00Z Euro suggests a broad area of potential vorticity attempting to organize in the SW Caribbean. That has the appearance in my view of a broad area of monsoonal/Central America lower pressure we can see in that area. Of particular interest to me is the pattern does look conducive for potential development as that robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave progresses further East across the Atlantic toward Africa. We need rain for you folks near/around the Brazos Valley. Fingers crossed you folks can get some rainfall without is being from any sort of tropical mischief.
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09262019 00Z 144 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_7.png
09262019 00Z 168 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_8.png
09262019 00Z 192 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_9.png
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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by texoz » Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:46 pm

Half the state is in either in moderate to extreme drought. A weak TS moving at a steady pace from Brownsville to Lubbock would be welcome.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg ... X_none.jpg

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Re: October cold front--time for change....

Post by JDsGN » Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:38 am

For some reason the wait for this front this years front is really discouraging... I can remember some hot days in October but we have at least had a few days with a nice tease of cooler air.

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