September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

24 inch amounts across portions of SE Texas via the 12km NAM 12Z over a 84 hour period.

[Tx2005]

24 inch amounts across portions of SE Texas via the 12km NAM 12Z over a 84 hour period.

That’s concerning :/

[brooksgarner]

NAM joins EURO showing silly rainfall amounts run to run... but this is also dependent on if this thing develops into a tropical cyclone... just models, but interesting that GEM/NAM/EURO all bullish for flooding totals. Hope it doesn't happen but when it's doing this 4 days out it's a red flag and not to be written off. We all have an optimism/normalcy bias and that definitely influences long-range forecasts. This time of year, plan for the worst but hope for the best. Maybe it'll only be 4"-6"... we hope! Rain is needed, just not all at once.

nam

[Texashawk]

Model feedback issues, perhaps? Just doesn’t seem realistic! Any Mets care to chime in? I mean, if this is true, it’ll be a devastating flooding event but the various news channels seem to be taking an “eeehhh, it’s something to watch’ but not too concerned on the whole.

[Cromagnum]

Heard a mention here and there about a core rain event potentially being the cause for all the rain. How strong does a tropical system have to be in order for a core rain event to even happen? I thought this was more typical when a strong storm comes ashore and dumps all at once as it weakens.

[stormlover]

I still think there is going to be a lot of tough forecast with this

[sau27]

If I hadn't already seen the Euro I'd give it a hearty "LOL NAM". But I have, so I can't

[BlueJay]

We have many Texas counties with a burn ban. Rain is needed.

[don]

12z GFS is getting onboard also

[stormlover]

Gfs slowly getting on board finally dang that model is bad

[srainhoutx]

Even the 12Z Legacy GFS suggests 5 to 10 inches with some isolated totals of 12 inches+ over SE Texas.

[jasons2k]

Heard a mention here and there about a core rain event potentially being the cause for all the rain. How strong does a tropical system have to be in order for a core rain event to even happen? I thought this was more typical when a strong storm comes ashore and dumps all at once as it weakens.

It does not have to be strong at all. Remember, Allison didn’t flood out Houston until she had moved well inland towards the ArkLaTex region and looped back. And there has been many a ‘core event’ recently in the Texas Hill Country just from ‘tropical like’ ULL systems.

In short, it does not have to become a TS to dump that much rain.

[jasons2k]

Starting to see some hints of convergence bands setting-up within the cumulus field over land. We may see some bands of rain forming this afternoon as things heat up.

[txbear]

WRF sniffing the heavy rain potential as well. Although heaviest confined mostly offshore, trend increasing from the bay and on to the NW.

[sau27]

Heard a mention here and there about a core rain event potentially being the cause for all the rain. How strong does a tropical system have to be in order for a core rain event to even happen? I thought this was more typical when a strong storm comes ashore and dumps all at once as it weakens.

It does not have to be strong at all. Remember, Allison didn’t flood out Houston until she had moved well inland towards the ArkLaTex region and looped back. And there has been many a ‘core event’ recently in the Texas Hill Country just from ‘tropical like’ ULL systems.

In short, it does not have to become a TS to dump that much rain.

Since Allison I have been fascinated with core rain events, yet I have not been able to find much literature on them. It is always a thought in the back of my mind when these weak systems meander on shore around here.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian beginning lighter FWIW. GFS sticks to 3-5 in overall with a hot/wet spot around a foot SW of Katy.

[DoctorMu]

Heard a mention here and there about a core rain event potentially being the cause for all the rain. How strong does a tropical system have to be in order for a core rain event to even happen? I thought this was more typical when a strong storm comes ashore and dumps all at once as it weakens.

It does not have to be strong at all. Remember, Allison didn’t flood out Houston until she had moved well inland towards the ArkLaTex region and looped back. And there has been many a ‘core event’ recently in the Texas Hill Country just from ‘tropical like’ ULL systems.

In short, it does not have to become a TS to dump that much rain.

Since Allison I have been fascinated with core rain events, yet I have not been able to find much literature on them. It is always a thought in the back of my mind when these weak systems meander on shore around here.

Harvey feasted on nightly core events.

[DoctorMu]

Even the 12Z Legacy GFS suggests 5 to 10 inches with some isolated totals of 12 inches+ over SE Texas.

Latest CMC, GFS, Legacy 12Z are 1/2 has much precip.


I guess watering for half the usual time worked

[Cpv17]

At the rate this is trending east, this may end up over Beaumont and into Louisiana.

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see some very strong signals via the MJO and the strongest Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave of the Hurricane Season supporting an active period in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. I will not be surprised to see a flurry of tropical activity as we end September and begin October.