September 2019 - Warm End of September

[jasons2k]

Pouring!! Jackpot!!

We just got 1.95” here in about 15-20 minutes. Brings my total today up to 2.4”!!

Congrats!! Much deserved!!

[Cpv17]

Pouring!! Jackpot!!

We just got 1.95” here in about 15-20 minutes. Brings my total today up to 2.4”!!

Congrats!! Much deserved!!

Thanks, same to you! Maybe more tomorrow?

[redneckweather]

Not even a drop near Lake Conroe Dam the past few days. Watching the radar split around me is absolutely mind boggling.

[Katdaddy]

Strong morning thunderstorms approaching the coastal counties.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
GALVESTON BAY...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* AT 600 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 NM SOUTHWEST OF SURFSIDE JETTY TO BASTROP BAY TO 7
NM NORTH OF GALVESTON A8...MOVING NORTH AT 25 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON A8...TABS BUOY B...GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...
GALVESTON BAY...GALVESTON 344...OFFATTS BAYOU...GALVESTON 221...
GALVESTON PIER 21...GALVESTON 282...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...
HIGH ISLAND A179...SURFSIDE JETTY...BASTROP BAY...CHRISTMAS BAY...
GALVESTON SHIP CHANNEL...WEST BAY...GALVESTON 317...
GALVESTON 256...DRUM BAY AND NORTH JETTY.

[Scott747]

The modeling for 95l has remained well e of us towards the ngom. However the nhc shows a bit more westward component with the overall movement more towards the central gulf as the ensembles seem slightly to the w of the operational runs.

[srainhoutx]

The modeling for 95l has remained well e of us towards the ngom. However the nhc shows a bit more westward component with the overall movement more towards the central gulf as the ensembles seem slightly to the w of the operational runs.

The 00Z Euro and GFS ensembles do suggest a bit more Westerly track, but until if or when 95L organizes, all interests along the Gulf Coast likely should monitor the developments.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This
disturbance is accompanied by a large but disorganized area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move
westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds for tropical cyclone
formation.

2. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend or early next week when the system is moving over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[Texaspirate11]

WOKE up to some nice boomers and rain. Lovely way to wake up on a Wednesday.

[Montgomery]

Not even a drop near Lake Conroe Dam the past few days. Watching the radar split around me is absolutely mind boggling.

I feel your pain. I'm on 2854/Keenan. Nothing, in a very long time!!

[srainhoutx]

After all the rumbling of thunder, gust winds and spits of rain off an on yesterday, one heavy shower managed to drop .43 inches in my backyard. Better luck today for those that have missed out!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...
Widespread activity over the Gulf will continue to move inland in
to the early morning hours. While we`re not too sure if we`ll see
that mid/late morning break (as it has been the last few days)...
we should see decent coverage across the area this afternoon. The
best POPs will likely be north of I-10 with brief heavy rains and
strong gusty winds as the primary threats. Like the previous days,
activity should wind down by the evening with the loss of heating.

As the upper ridge builds in from the east, slightly drier air and
increased subsidence aloft will help to lower rain chance on Thurs.
However, lingering moisture/wet grounds, light winds and the still
abundant daytime heating could make for elevated heat index values
across the western/southwestern portions of the FA Thurs afternoon
and early evening. At this time, progged values are just under our
heat advisory criteria...but anyone with outdoor activities should
keep up with the forecast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...
While northern portions of the CWFA will likely remain hot and dry
to end the week and the start of the weekend, the southern half of
the region could still see some isolated activity during this same
time frame. A persistent onshore flow, daytime heating and the sea
breeze will help to keep low POPs in along the coast.

The main issue for the extended forecast looks to be Sun/Mon as we
monitor the arrival of deeper moisture and a possible tropical dis-
turbance. Model solutions have been fairly consistent with the dev-
elopment of this system into the NE Gulf over the weekend. However,
we are seeing a bit more discrepancies with its westward track over
the Northern Gulf. At any rate...did keep with the higher/CHC POPs
across our CWA for this time frame. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms bringing strong gusty winds to the coastal
waters will be spreading inland early this morning but then should
weaken over the water by mid morning. This will lead to gusty winds
possible even in the vicinity of storms near the coast.

Overall expecting something similar to yesterday with short lines of
bands of thunderstorms forming and spreading northward through the
area causing short periods of MVFR with the restricted visibility.
Will likely carry VCSH/VCTS between 14-20z for the HOU/IAH hubs with
tempo conditions intermixed then VCTS after 20z and have some
concerns that redevelopment is a little more likely again around 22-
00z.

Overnight should be mostly VFR with some patchy fog again and
lighter winds. 45

&&

.MARINE...

Strong gusty thunderstorms this morning forming a NW-SE band from
near Freeport to more than 70nm south of Galveston. Very cold cloud
tops on some of these. Winds of greater than 40 knots possible.

By mid morning expecting the coverage of storms to diminish but the
area will still be reloading for yet another round tonight/early
Thursday morning.

Winds should be generally southeasterly today in the 10-15 knot
range outside of the thunderstorm influences through Thursday. Winds
gradually backing Thursday night to the east with weak high pressure
over SETX Friday morning. Some models indicating winds may become
even northeasterly and strengthen with yet another round of early
morning storms.

Upper level pressures falling across the Gulf with the upper
troughing which in turn leading to the potential for more storms
Sunday or Monday depending on how the tropical disturbance (95L)
moving over FL plays out and the upper low. Stay tuned.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 96 72 97 / 50 20 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 77 96 77 95 / 30 20 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 82 93 / 30 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[nlosrgr8]

Received a nice little storm this morning in Sugar Land, but now I need to travel to Klein. It seems the rains dissipate north of I10, do y’all think this will hold all day?

[srainhoutx]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

[Cpv17]

The HRRR this morning doesn’t look as promising for today as it did last night.

[jasons2k]

Yeah. Fingers crossed for a round 2 this afternoon because this morning’s stuff fizzled before it got to me.

[Cpv17]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The Euro keeps this in the NE Gulf. This map by the NHC has it going towards the central Gulf. What’s up with that?

[Rip76]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The Euro keeps this in the NE Gulf. This map by the NHC has it going towards the central Gulf. What’s up with that?

The Euro is one model, and I think the NHC takes more than just one model into account.

[jasons2k]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

[cperk]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order.

[Kingwood36]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order.

Lol..agreed!

[txbear]

Couldn't help but notice a fantastic view of thunderheads far to the southwest from my office. A quick check of the radar, and that appears to be cells near Corpus. Amazing what a little mixing out of the haze of moisture will do for sight lines.