September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2624
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by tireman4 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:26 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271547
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1047 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers moving onshore at around 20 mph to the north.
Many of these cells are dropping around a few hundredths to
around a half an inch of rain on their northerly passage. A day
very similar to the past few with the only difference being
slightly more precipitation coverage across the western forecast
area. A slug of near 2.2 inch pwat moisture moving in from the
Gulf between the bays will be the impetus for continued morning
showers / afternoon embedded (isolated) thunderstorms along and
west of the I-45 corridor. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Mostly VFR, with some chances for showers this afternoon, but best
chances for rain will be south/west of the terminals today. IFR
conditions are in place just west of CLL, and will have to be
watched carefully for the next few hours. Also potential for some
brief MVFR at LBX/SGR/HOU, but confidence is low enough that the
TAF stays VFR at all three. Briefly saw some restrictive fog at
CXO, but dewpoint has appeared to drop low enough to prevent
further occurrences this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/...

DISCUSSION...

An increasingly unseasonable ridge over the northeastern Gulf
coast will dominate much of the forecast period, leading to
warmer than typical temperatures ahead of us into early October.
However, we`ll both open and close the forecast period with
weaknesses in the upper air pattern, which should allow for surges
of Gulf moisture and higher rain chances this weekend, and
potentially again as early as next Friday, if moisture return is
strong. Some guidance even suggests our first cold front of the
season at the end of next week, but...let`s not get too attached
to that idea just yet.

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...

GOES-East shows upper lows over the Bahamas as well as the
California/Arizona/Baja/Sonora border region. For us in between
the two, there is a relatively weak upper ridge in place. Of
course, even though it`s a fairly subtle ridge relative to the
lows bookending it, we`re still looking at something that is more
reminiscent of late summer than early fall...but more on that
later.

The upper low to the west looks to eject northeastward while it
shears out. I don`t expect much direct impact in our area from
this feature, but it does look to break the extended ridging
pattern we`ve been seeing and allow for a flow northward of Gulf
moisture into the area. As such, precipitable water looks to
increase to around or above two inches, with the highest values
well to the west of Houston. We should see rain chances increase
accordingly. That looks to be about all for synoptic support for
rain, though, so it will take daytime heating and mesoscale
opportunities for convergence to get things going, and should
ultimately mitigate to some extent updrafts` staying ability, and
rainfall totals.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

By Sunday, we`re looking for the Gulf Coast ridge aloft to
strengthen and work its way back westward some, probably in
response to the digging upper trough dropping into the Pacific
Northwest. Because of this, I`m going ahead and holding with
high temperature in the lower half of the 90s for the back half
of the weekend (and clear into early October). And, as the ridge
builds back after our brief dalliance in the short term, we can
crank down rain chances early next week, as well.

That next upper trough doesn`t look to dig very far, instead
looking to bring some big early season snowfall to the northern
Rockies. Buuuuuut, it should at least manage to dent the summer-
like trough setup some, as 500 mb heights are progged to at least
fall out of the 590s(?) around Thursday.

Now, from here, this is where guidance consensus really
disappears, and though the impact on this strong ridging is
roughly the same, it occurs in different ways. On one hand, the
GFS and Canadian are fans of a strong trailing high moving from
the US-Canada border into the Great Lakes region shoving a cold
front to the Gulf Coast, along with blessed, blessed north winds
and at least modestly cooler air into our area.

The buzzkill Euro, on the other hand, is hearing none of this. It
breaks down the ridge`s strong hold on the area by letting an
inverted Gulf upper trough drift northward towards the Rio Grande
Valley. While both scenarios would increase rain chances and
likely tamp down daytime highs, there`s only one way we`re getting
even a sniff of sub-70 low temps, and the Euro`s way isn`t it.

While my heart yearns for what the GFS and Canadian are selling,
I`m not sure how much I can trust that surge of colder air just
yet. Outside of Imelda, the recent trend across the southern tier
has been hot and dry, and I`d expect that to pretty quickly modify
any incoming air mass, especially one lacking upper support. So, I
went ahead and nudged up low temps above the model consensus.

MARINE...

Conditions are very near SCEC tonight with solid southerly winds.
Those winds should back off a little bit through the day today,
but should increase again overnight, and SCEC conditions appear
more likely to begin then. Shower and thunderstorm potential also
appears higher for the weekend, but then looks to back down again
for much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 77 94 / 30 10 40 10 30
Houston (IAH) 89 77 91 79 90 / 40 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 84 88 / 40 20 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Update...31

ccbluewater
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 12:16 pm
Location: Cypress
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by ccbluewater » Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:26 pm

Very nice Thunderstorm at my office in Tomball!

Cpv17
Posts: 1201
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:47 pm

Just had a torrential downpour for a good 20 minutes at my job in Rosenberg. I’m sure we picked up at least 2” if not more.

mckinne63
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 3:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by mckinne63 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:40 pm

It is coming down pretty hard here in Stafford!

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 2031
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:28 pm

Seabreeze approaching work and home. Expect it to hit the wall in 3...2...1...

User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by snowman65 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:12 am

Has there ever been a tropical cyclone enter the gulf after Nov 30? With the way this season has been and with no cool fronts on the horizon, I would think that this would be a prime year for that to happen....?

User avatar
Kludge
Posts: 236
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:53 pm
Location: Bedias, Texas
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Kludge » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:13 am

I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.

User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1251
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:17 pm

Looks like we may see a little this evening.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 2031
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:56 pm

Kludge wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:13 am
I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
Don't count on it. :cry:

Cpv17
Posts: 1201
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:04 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:56 pm
Kludge wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:13 am
I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
Don't count on it. :cry:
I really don’t see anything worth talking about on the horizon. No fronts, no rain...nothing. Yawn. Sucks for a weather enthusiast such as myself. One of the things I live for is exciting weather. At least I got to see a good thundershower yesterday at work lol but it’s always better to see that at home.

Post Reply