September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
stormlover
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by stormlover » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:28 pm

12z euro says not so fast and tries to develop a tropical wave headed towards Texas

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

Cpv17
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:00 pm

stormlover wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:28 pm
12z euro says not so fast and tries to develop a tropical wave headed towards Texas

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html
Yeah, but there’s hardly any precipitation with it. Euro only has about 1” for SETX through 10 days.

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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by stormlover » Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:04 pm

still something to watch and a long ways out.

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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:44 am

Will need to keep an eye on a surge of deep tropical moisture headed toward the Texas Coast overnight into tomorrow. PW's of 2 inches, possibly near 2.5 look to arrive with a stronger onshore flow and atmospheric conditions favorable for some higher rainfall rate where stronger showers/storms do occur. I do not see anything near what we experienced last week, but those folks that do get under the heavier rain could see a couple of inches in hour. Saturday looks like the best chance to see the best areal coverage for rainfall.
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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by tireman4 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:19 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 261148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog has developed from KDWH to KCXO and K6R3 with a few
other areas towards K11R having fog. GOES microphysics RGB imagery
shows this patchy fog developing in other areas. Any visibility
restriction from fog should be in the 2 to 5 mile range. For now
the fog has not affected any other TAFs except for KCXO. We do
expect VFR conditions to continue. Moisture will increase tonight
into Friday morning so we may need to look harder at ceilings/fog
in the extended portions of the TAFs.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 349 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Patchy fog has developed from Conroe to Cleveland this morning. This
fog may expand some but there are little signs of that happening on
the GOES microphysics RGB imagery. Overall it looks like today will
be a repeat of yesterday. GOES derived precip water imagery shows
low precip water values over the area indicating drier air and area
AMDAR soundings from airplanes show very dry air from 900mb up to
600mb. Given mixing during the day, doubtful there will be much in
the way of cloud cover for today.

There is a plume of higher moisture with precip water values above 2
inches down in the west central Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. This
moisture should begin to advect into the Upper Texas Coastal areas
tonight into Friday morning. We might see shower activity increase
after midnight tonight over the Coastal Bend into Matagorda Bay. The
NAM may be a tad fast with this advection of moisture but it looks
like most WRF model runs and HREF are showing an increase in shower
activity. As a result the forecast will reflect an increase in rain
chances for these areas.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Overall there is not much change in the marine forecast. Light to
moderate southerly winds should continue through the end of the work
week with low seas. Southerly winds should increase Friday through
the weekend with a surge in moisture from the Gulf. This will allow
for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Winds may increase
to around 15 to 20 knots with seas building close to 6 feet. Small
craft exercise caution may be needed over the weekend for the
offshore waters. Stronger southerly winds may persist into Monday.
This increase in winds may also cause slight elevated tide levels as
well as the threat for rip currents. We will need to monitor for
these conditions as we go into the weekend.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 72 93 74 94 / 0 0 30 10 50
Houston (IAH) 90 73 90 75 90 / 0 0 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 88 81 88 / 10 10 20 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Overpeck

stormlover
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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by stormlover » Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:58 pm

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

we shall see but euro shows tropical wave again headed towards Texas next week.

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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:51 pm

stormlover wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:58 pm
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

we shall see but euro shows tropical wave again headed towards Texas next week.
Meh, looks boring.

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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Andrew » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:23 pm

Still not seeing a "true" cold front yet on the models. The GFS was indicating a strong cold front during the beginning of October for several runs earlier this week, but that has since disappeared for the most part. Now the GFS and ECMWF, for the most part, are pushing the colder air east. Looking at mid/upper-level flow most models are actually indicating a pretty zonal setup for the foreseeable future. For me personally, I enjoy the warmer weather, but I know many here are looking for that first feeling of fall.
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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:02 pm

This CAG feature has my attention. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

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Re: September 2019 - Wet Weekend Likely

Post by Katdaddy » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:48 am

Scattered showers streaming inland across Matagorda and Brazoria Counties this morning. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend with an increase in tropical moisture. Onward to October and hopefully some cooler weather.
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