September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Moisture Returns/Tracking TS Karen

Post by Scott747 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:33 am

Operational 12z GFS stops its silliness and looks more realistic....

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Moisture Returns/Tracking TS Karen

Post by TexasBreeze » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:47 am

...and it still shows the Oct 4th cold front blowing through too!

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tireman4
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by tireman4 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:03 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 242032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Afternoon)...
Showers have hung in there over the far western counties today and
was expecting these to gradually shift westward but they haven`t
yet. With the loss of heating these should wane and a mostly clear
and dry night will be on tap. Of note on the radar is a clear
signature of the broad-winged hawk migration underway. Rain chances
continue into Wednesday for some pop up showers mainly southwest of
Sealy/Freeport line. The dry air that has spread into the region
will linger on Wednesday with mid/lower level capping getting
stronger throughout the day. Temperatures should climb back up into
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

45

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow night Through Tuesday Night]...
Reduced moisture levels (lower precipitable water values) will be found
across much of Southeast Texas tomorrow night through Thursday, and
expect a majority of the area to stay dry. Temperatures will remain
on the warm side on Thursday with highs mostly in the 90s (generally
2 to 5 degrees above normal). Rain chances return to the area on
Friday as onshore winds begin to strengthen and we start tapping
into portions of the deeper tropical moisture associated with the
weak area of low pressure currently lingering around and to the
north of the Yucatan Peninsula that the National Hurricane Center
is monitoring and expects to move inland over northeastern Mexico
late Friday or Saturday. Some models indicate precipitable water
values getting higher than 2 inches over the weekend, and this
could lead to some locally heavy rainfall (current September rainfall
rankings are 5th wettest at Galveston with 17.85 inches, 3rd wettest
at Houston Hobby with 11.40 inches, and 1st wettest at City of Houston
with 14.76 inches. College Station`s 2.54 inches is more than 5 inches
under their 10th wettest). Slightly lower high temperatures over the
weekend due to the rain will warm back up next week as mid/upper level
ridging builds back into the area from the east and northeast. This
pattern looks to bring drier weather back to the area Monday and
Tuesday with a majority of locations rainfree as September comes
to and end and October begins. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue for the next several days.
Winds and seas will increase late in the week and over the weekend.
Caution flags might be needed. Look for increasing shower and thunderstorms
chances at the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain relatively light across the region but afternoon
humidity values will likely dip into the upper 30 to lower 40
percent range today/Wednesday/Thursday over the northern and
northwestern counties. Although much of the area received abundant
rainfall from T.S. Imelda these northwestern and northern counties
have still got a deficit running and the KBDI across Trinity-Walker-
Grimes-Washington-Austin-Colorado counties and westward all showing
600 or greater KBDI values.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 90 73 90 74 / 0 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 80 87 81 / 0 10 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Cpv17
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:07 pm

Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.

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Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by Texaspirate11 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:07 pm
Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
I'll take boring for $100, alex
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant

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srainhoutx
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:18 am

I see hints of a Fall cold front the first weekend of October. It's the end of September. We need someone get us started with a new Topic for October!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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BlueJay
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by BlueJay » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:50 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:07 pm
Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
I'll take boring for $100, alex
:lol:

Love it! And, I agree.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:18 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:18 am
I see hints of a Fall cold front the first weekend of October. It's the end of September. We need someone get us started with a new Topic for October!
HALLELUJAH!
Team #NeverSummer

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tireman4
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Re: September 2019 - Summer Like WX/Tracking TS Karen

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:50 am

090
FXUS64 KHGX 251557
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Afternoon]...

Looking like a relatively quiet day across the area today. Onshore
flow with little change in low level moisture and mid level dry
air. Subsidence on the increase per WV this morning and don`t see
any significant changes in the short term portion of the forecast
other than perhaps to add some patchy fog to Thursday morning near
CXO.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 645 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/...





.LONG TERM [Thursday through next Wednesday]...

Thursday should stay fairly calm and dry, as convective development
will continue to be inhibited by a lack of moisture transport with
precipitable water (PW) values remaining within the 1 to 1.5 inch
range. Temperatures will continue to sit above climatological norms
for late September, with highs reaching the high 80s to low 90s at
most locations across the CWA. Convective activity will be enhanced
heading into the weekend as onshore flow becomes more amplified with
an eastward shift of surface high pressure. PW values should rise
into the 2+ inch range by Friday evening which, along with an
offshore vorticity maximum associated with the disorganized area of
low pressure located off the Yucatan peninsula, should allow for the
development more widespread diurnally driven convection with the
potential for some periods of heavier rainfall. ECMWF, GFS, and
Canadian are in fairly good agreement that the most significant
activity should occur on Saturday, although the possibility of
localized stronger storms will persist through the duration of the
weekend. By Sunday evening, an upper ridge builds back into the
area and returns us to a pattern of stagnant and unseasonably warm
conditions that will continue into the middle of next week.

Cady


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog may develop for KCXO this morning but that looks to be
the only terminal that may have restricted visibility. T/Td
spreads are only a degree so next couple hours could get some fog.
Otherwise, rest of the terminals look clear based on obs and
night time RGB imagery. Scattered stratocumulus should thin out
today as drier air begins to mix in the boundary layer this
afternoon. Tonight winds should become calm again and we will need
to monitor for patchy fog again.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Light to moderate southerly winds should continue through the end of
the work week with low seas. Southerly winds do increase Friday
through the weekend with a surge in moisture from the Gulf. This
will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Winds
may increase to around 15 to 20 knots with seas building close to 6
feet. Small craft exercise caution may be needed over the weekend
for the offshore waters. This increase in winds may also cause
slight elevated tide levels as well as the threat for rip currents.
We will need to monitor for these conditions as we go into the
weekend.

Overpeck



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 90 73 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 86 80 88 / 10 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...41
DSS.........11

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Moisture Returns/Tracking TS Karen

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:55 am

TexasBreeze wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:47 am
...and it still shows the Oct 4th cold front blowing through too!
Euro, Canadian, Ensemble are on board. Canadian now brings the front down to about Hempstead and washes it out. Time to turn off the sprinklers - put down sulfur + fungicide for brown patch! :lol:

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