September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271547
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1047 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers moving onshore at around 20 mph to the north.
Many of these cells are dropping around a few hundredths to
around a half an inch of rain on their northerly passage. A day
very similar to the past few with the only difference being
slightly more precipitation coverage across the western forecast
area. A slug of near 2.2 inch pwat moisture moving in from the
Gulf between the bays will be the impetus for continued morning
showers / afternoon embedded (isolated) thunderstorms along and
west of the I-45 corridor. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Mostly VFR, with some chances for showers this afternoon, but best
chances for rain will be south/west of the terminals today. IFR
conditions are in place just west of CLL, and will have to be
watched carefully for the next few hours. Also potential for some
brief MVFR at LBX/SGR/HOU, but confidence is low enough that the
TAF stays VFR at all three. Briefly saw some restrictive fog at
CXO, but dewpoint has appeared to drop low enough to prevent
further occurrences this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/...

DISCUSSION...

An increasingly unseasonable ridge over the northeastern Gulf
coast will dominate much of the forecast period, leading to
warmer than typical temperatures ahead of us into early October.
However, we`ll both open and close the forecast period with
weaknesses in the upper air pattern, which should allow for surges
of Gulf moisture and higher rain chances this weekend, and
potentially again as early as next Friday, if moisture return is
strong. Some guidance even suggests our first cold front of the
season at the end of next week, but...let`s not get too attached
to that idea just yet.

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...

GOES-East shows upper lows over the Bahamas as well as the
California/Arizona/Baja/Sonora border region. For us in between
the two, there is a relatively weak upper ridge in place. Of
course, even though it`s a fairly subtle ridge relative to the
lows bookending it, we`re still looking at something that is more
reminiscent of late summer than early fall...but more on that
later.

The upper low to the west looks to eject northeastward while it
shears out. I don`t expect much direct impact in our area from
this feature, but it does look to break the extended ridging
pattern we`ve been seeing and allow for a flow northward of Gulf
moisture into the area. As such, precipitable water looks to
increase to around or above two inches, with the highest values
well to the west of Houston. We should see rain chances increase
accordingly. That looks to be about all for synoptic support for
rain, though, so it will take daytime heating and mesoscale
opportunities for convergence to get things going, and should
ultimately mitigate to some extent updrafts` staying ability, and
rainfall totals.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

By Sunday, we`re looking for the Gulf Coast ridge aloft to
strengthen and work its way back westward some, probably in
response to the digging upper trough dropping into the Pacific
Northwest. Because of this, I`m going ahead and holding with
high temperature in the lower half of the 90s for the back half
of the weekend (and clear into early October). And, as the ridge
builds back after our brief dalliance in the short term, we can
crank down rain chances early next week, as well.

That next upper trough doesn`t look to dig very far, instead
looking to bring some big early season snowfall to the northern
Rockies. Buuuuuut, it should at least manage to dent the summer-
like trough setup some, as 500 mb heights are progged to at least
fall out of the 590s(?) around Thursday.

Now, from here, this is where guidance consensus really
disappears, and though the impact on this strong ridging is
roughly the same, it occurs in different ways. On one hand, the
GFS and Canadian are fans of a strong trailing high moving from
the US-Canada border into the Great Lakes region shoving a cold
front to the Gulf Coast, along with blessed, blessed north winds
and at least modestly cooler air into our area.

The buzzkill Euro, on the other hand, is hearing none of this. It
breaks down the ridge`s strong hold on the area by letting an
inverted Gulf upper trough drift northward towards the Rio Grande
Valley. While both scenarios would increase rain chances and
likely tamp down daytime highs, there`s only one way we`re getting
even a sniff of sub-70 low temps, and the Euro`s way isn`t it.

While my heart yearns for what the GFS and Canadian are selling,
I`m not sure how much I can trust that surge of colder air just
yet. Outside of Imelda, the recent trend across the southern tier
has been hot and dry, and I`d expect that to pretty quickly modify
any incoming air mass, especially one lacking upper support. So, I
went ahead and nudged up low temps above the model consensus.

MARINE...

Conditions are very near SCEC tonight with solid southerly winds.
Those winds should back off a little bit through the day today,
but should increase again overnight, and SCEC conditions appear
more likely to begin then. Shower and thunderstorm potential also
appears higher for the weekend, but then looks to back down again
for much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 77 94 / 30 10 40 10 30
Houston (IAH) 89 77 91 79 90 / 40 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 84 88 / 40 20 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Update...31
ccbluewater
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Very nice Thunderstorm at my office in Tomball!
Cpv17
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Just had a torrential downpour for a good 20 minutes at my job in Rosenberg. I’m sure we picked up at least 2” if not more.
mckinne63
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It is coming down pretty hard here in Stafford!
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DoctorMu
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Seabreeze approaching work and home. Expect it to hit the wall in 3...2...1...
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snowman65
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Has there ever been a tropical cyclone enter the gulf after Nov 30? With the way this season has been and with no cool fronts on the horizon, I would think that this would be a prime year for that to happen....?
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Kludge
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I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
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Rip76
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Looks like we may see a little this evening.
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DoctorMu
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Kludge wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:13 am I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
Don't count on it. :cry:
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 3:56 pm
Kludge wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:13 am I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
Don't count on it. :cry:
I really don’t see anything worth talking about on the horizon. No fronts, no rain...nothing. Yawn. Sucks for a weather enthusiast such as myself. One of the things I live for is exciting weather. At least I got to see a good thundershower yesterday at work lol but it’s always better to see that at home.
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Ptarmigan
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Hurricane Lorenzo is now a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph and 938 millibars. It was a Category 5 hurricane, which is the easternmost known Category 5 hurricane.

Most recent advisory.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1455.shtml

Code: Select all

623 
WTNT33 KNHC 291455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on
Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Steady weakening is expected over the next
few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in
a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Advisory when it was a Category 5.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/a ... .027.shtml?

Code: Select all

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
northeast by Monday.  A faster northeast motion is expected by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Sunday.  A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday
night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent
hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days.  Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN
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DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:37 am Hurricane Lorenzo is now a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph and 938 millibars. It was a Category 5 hurricane, which is the easternmost known Category 5 hurricane.

Most recent advisory.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1455.shtml

Code: Select all

623 
WTNT33 KNHC 291455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on
Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Steady weakening is expected over the next
few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in
a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Advisory when it was a Category 5.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/a ... .027.shtml?

Code: Select all

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
northeast by Monday.  A faster northeast motion is expected by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Sunday.  A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday
night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent
hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days.  Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN

1953 - 2000: 14 CAT 5 Atlantic hurricanes

2003-2019: 14 CAT 5 Atlantic hurricanes


Wow
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Katdaddy
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Waving goodbye to Sept 2019 this afternoon. Onward to Oct 2019 and hopefully some cooler weather and no late season tropical mischief for the NW GOM. A peaceful satellite image this afternoon.
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