September 2019 - Warm End of September

[don]

This tropical disturbance is starting to look interesting...

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[unome]

just an fyi - WPC should update QPF days 1-3 by approx 18Z https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fam2.shtml#qpf

a QPF webinar, from March 2016, if you have the time https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/webi ... html5.html

[Cpv17]

On the next Euro update at 12z, I would expect to see the heavier totals shift east once again. Probably over Galveston and then Baytown then north into Liberty County. Seems about right seeing the east trends. Chances of rain diminishing with each model run for the western parts of the viewing area.

[cperk]

This tropical disturbance is starting to look interesting...

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

Looks like something trying to form.

[jasons2k]

Just stepped outside for lunch. A stiff breeze from the northeast....like a tropical system is brewing in the Gulf

[tireman4]

Just stepped outside for lunch. A stiff breeze from the northeast....like a tropical system is brewing in the Gulf

Nope. Nothing to see here sir. Move on toward Fall.

[cperk]

On the next Euro update at 12z, I would expect to see the heavier totals shift east once again. Probably over Galveston and then Baytown then north into Liberty County. Seems about right seeing the east trends. Chances of rain diminishing with each model run for the western parts of the viewing area.

What is the basis of your line of thinking on this east shift ,because no one else here is talking about it.

[sau27]

I think it is important to keep a couple of things in mind here.

-We all know how these heavy rain events, particularly when associated with disorganized tropical blobs, work. The QPF bombs will bounce around each model run. Just like we try to advise not obsessing over every wobble of the eye of a tropical system, we shouldn't put too much stock into exactly where these bulls eyes are placed run to run. Focus more on the general area.

-Today is only Monday and the main part of this event isn't forecast until late Wednesday into Thursday. While that may not be a lot of time for certain events, these types of set ups tend to be more now-cast events.

-Finally, the 00z Euro is what set all of this heightened alert into motion. Yes, some other models have latched on to the general solution this morning, but lets get a few more runs in before talking about trends. For all we know the 12z Euro in a couple of hours could be just as much of a surprise as the 00Z was this morning.

[mcheer23]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday tonight or Wednesday. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the central and upper Texas coastal areas
later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[jasons2k]

20% again.

[srainhoutx]

Lake Charles reports numerous tropical funnels and waterspouts around the marshes/Bays. Expect those to increase as deep tropical moisture continues to stream inland.

[Cpv17]

On the next Euro update at 12z, I would expect to see the heavier totals shift east once again. Probably over Galveston and then Baytown then north into Liberty County. Seems about right seeing the east trends. Chances of rain diminishing with each model run for the western parts of the viewing area.

What is the basis of your line of thinking on this east shift ,because no one else here is talking about it.

Past couple days the heaviest totals were aimed at the western half of the viewing area and have been slowly shifting east with each passing model run. Now the heaviest totals are aimed towards the central part of the viewing area so the east trend may not be over with.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro spins up a weak low near Matagorda Bay tomorrow morning. That weak low drifts generally N to around Western Ft. Bend/Austin/W Harris/Waller Counties Wednesday morning. By Thursday morning the weak low is near Huntsville/Navasota.

[stormlover]

Looks like that was little beat more east than 00z run

[TexasBreeze]

Rain beginning to blossom south parts of the area and to the east. My sky by Klein is now mostly cloudy with multi layered low mid and high clouds. It is already moistening up around here. Winds are breezy too.

[unome]

I don't understand why GOES East Meso 2 isn't over theTX/LA Gulf states

[Andrew]

The ECMWF is faster than previous runs but the story is the same. My main concern here is for when and where banding and training could occur over the region. The intensification of this subtropical low over SE Texas and the LLJ that really ramps up Tuesday and Wednesday would suggest someone could see large totals. All models are showing heavy rain at this point, and now the bigger question for me is where.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC just Updated their Day 1 to 3 QPF Graphic. We will get the Updated graphics for 5 Days and 7 Days in a couple of hours as well as the afternoon Excessive Rainfall graphics.

[ccbluewater]

Wow the 12z Euro would be ugly. Has a 30" bullseye just south & west of Waller, and most of the Cypress area 12" plus. That wouldnt be good for the Cypress Creek flood plains. Wide spread 5-8" for Houston Metro. Obviously not going to assume this verifies entirely, but certainly raises another eye brow. On mobile so cant share any images for those that can't see.

[don]

12z Euro shows some areas at 30+ inches FWIW.