Still further shifts on the 18z runs.
The hurricane model HMON which is often referred to in the discos is taking Dorian across the Florida straits.
September 2019 - Warm End of September
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Andrew
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I think the current track looks pretty reasonable based on model data and the projected evolution of the ridge over the Western Atlantic. The far Northeast Gulf could be under threat but anything west of that I have trouble seeing right now. Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.
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Kingwood36
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Kingwood36
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Looks to go in to lousiana whatever it is
GFS. Euro, CMC have Dorian blowing through Mar-a-Lago:
[Write your own paper towel joke here]
[Write your own paper towel joke here]
The Euro takes this into Mexico. I don’t think we’ll see much of anything in SETX from it.Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:46 pm I think the current track looks pretty reasonable based on model data and the projected evolution of the ridge over the Western Atlantic. The far Northeast Gulf could be under threat but anything west of that I have trouble seeing right now. Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.
Whoa. The ridging on the 0z GFS...
Another shift w on the GFS. Barrels due w into WPB vicinity, across and begins turning before getting back to the gom.
Ukie is similar to its 12z run. W and the wnw across the state and into the ne gom with what looks like a heading towards the fla big bend.
Ukie is similar to its 12z run. W and the wnw across the state and into the ne gom with what looks like a heading towards the fla big bend.
The GFS has been trending more north with the tropical feature in the western gulf next week. Due to the high being further to the west and a deeper trough in the midwest.FWIW the NAM also tries to develop the system further north than previous runs. I would watch over the next few days to see if a northerly trend continues with the models. I wouldn't write this system off just yet...
Last edited by don on Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
Awesome! I hope the Euro trends more north too! We could all use some widespread rains instead of these isolated pop ups.
The ICON is very interesting, but even that is pretty far south. Looks like a moderate tropical storm into the Port Mansfield area.
Yes, it sure is interesting I hope the trend continues.
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning Hurricane Dorian briefing from Jeff:
Hurricane Watches are issued for the NW Bahamas
A significant and devastating hurricane event is increasingly likely for the FL Palm Coast early next week.
Discussion:
USAF mission has just completed their first morning center fix into Dorian and recorded a central pressure of 969mb and winds of 98kts. Based on this data the intensity is increased to 110mph. It appears Dorian is in the finishing phase of an eyewall replacement cycle that began yesterday and as the outer eyewall begins to contract inward intensification will be likely today into Saturday. Additionally, Dorian looks well developed on early morning visible images with deep convection wrapping around most of the inner core of the hurricane and increasing outflow toward the WNW. There is some weak SW shear over the hurricane and this is expected to abate in the next 24 hours.
Track:
Dorian is near the NE edge of the upper level low to its west and will be starting the turn toward the WNW today. High pressure is strongly building north of Dorian over the western Atlantic into the SE US and this feature will become the dominant controlling steering mechanism for Dorian over the next several days. Global and hurricane forecast models have come into much better agreement over the last 24 hours with Dorian turning W and approaching or crossing the NW Bahamas and then continuing westward at a slower forward speed and approaching and then landfalling along the FL east coast in the Palm coast region (West Palm Beach area). As steering currents collapse Dorian is then forecast to move slowly WNW and then NW across FL and potentially turn northward along the FL west coast. The turn toward the north over FL will be controlled by a trough swinging across the Great Lakes and breaking down the ridge of high pressure over the SE US. How fast and deep the trough is and how much the ridge breaks down will determine how sharp a turn Dorian makes. A more gradual turn could allow Dorian to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico and while this likelihood is lower than a few days ago it is still a viable solution.
Intensity:
Dorian is a well developed hurricane and the satellite appearance continues to improve. There is weak SW wind shear currently effecting the system, but this is expected to abate in the next 24 hours as the upper level low WSW of Dorian moves westward and Dorian will find itself in very favorable environment for intensification. Given favorable upper level outflow, very warm sea surface temperatures along the track, and the hurricane embedded within a moist environment there appears to be little to prevent Dorian from becoming a very dangerous hurricane. NHC brings Dorian to a 140mph category 4 at landfall along the FL east coast and this seems reasonable and within the intensity consensus guidance cluster. Eyewall replacement cycles will begin to dictate intensity changes as is usual with most intense hurricanes as Dorian nears the FL coast…and while these cycles can temporarily reduce winds speeds, they also expand the wind field.
Dorian is expected to be a very intense hurricane making landfall in the highly populated areas of EC/SE FL coast early next week.
Given the slowing motion at and after landfall, some areas will experience extreme conditions for many hours greatly increasing the damage potential to structures.
Hurricane Watches are issued for the NW Bahamas
A significant and devastating hurricane event is increasingly likely for the FL Palm Coast early next week.
Discussion:
USAF mission has just completed their first morning center fix into Dorian and recorded a central pressure of 969mb and winds of 98kts. Based on this data the intensity is increased to 110mph. It appears Dorian is in the finishing phase of an eyewall replacement cycle that began yesterday and as the outer eyewall begins to contract inward intensification will be likely today into Saturday. Additionally, Dorian looks well developed on early morning visible images with deep convection wrapping around most of the inner core of the hurricane and increasing outflow toward the WNW. There is some weak SW shear over the hurricane and this is expected to abate in the next 24 hours.
Track:
Dorian is near the NE edge of the upper level low to its west and will be starting the turn toward the WNW today. High pressure is strongly building north of Dorian over the western Atlantic into the SE US and this feature will become the dominant controlling steering mechanism for Dorian over the next several days. Global and hurricane forecast models have come into much better agreement over the last 24 hours with Dorian turning W and approaching or crossing the NW Bahamas and then continuing westward at a slower forward speed and approaching and then landfalling along the FL east coast in the Palm coast region (West Palm Beach area). As steering currents collapse Dorian is then forecast to move slowly WNW and then NW across FL and potentially turn northward along the FL west coast. The turn toward the north over FL will be controlled by a trough swinging across the Great Lakes and breaking down the ridge of high pressure over the SE US. How fast and deep the trough is and how much the ridge breaks down will determine how sharp a turn Dorian makes. A more gradual turn could allow Dorian to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico and while this likelihood is lower than a few days ago it is still a viable solution.
Intensity:
Dorian is a well developed hurricane and the satellite appearance continues to improve. There is weak SW wind shear currently effecting the system, but this is expected to abate in the next 24 hours as the upper level low WSW of Dorian moves westward and Dorian will find itself in very favorable environment for intensification. Given favorable upper level outflow, very warm sea surface temperatures along the track, and the hurricane embedded within a moist environment there appears to be little to prevent Dorian from becoming a very dangerous hurricane. NHC brings Dorian to a 140mph category 4 at landfall along the FL east coast and this seems reasonable and within the intensity consensus guidance cluster. Eyewall replacement cycles will begin to dictate intensity changes as is usual with most intense hurricanes as Dorian nears the FL coast…and while these cycles can temporarily reduce winds speeds, they also expand the wind field.
Dorian is expected to be a very intense hurricane making landfall in the highly populated areas of EC/SE FL coast early next week.
Given the slowing motion at and after landfall, some areas will experience extreme conditions for many hours greatly increasing the damage potential to structures.
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Do we need to be worried about this homebrewed system that some models are hinting at? All eyes are on Dorian but this looks to spin up into something to me.
Even if it does develop which isn’t very likely right now, the moisture looks to stay well south of us. We will most likely just continue to bake here.
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tireman4
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:40 amCromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:07 am Do we need to be worried about this homebrewed system that some models are hinting at? All eyes are on Dorian but this looks to spin up into something to me.
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Even if it does develop which isn’t very likely right now, the moisture looks to stay well south of us. We will most likely just continue to bake here.
Long way to go...too early to make any assumptions about anything..
