September 2019 - Warm End of September
- srainhoutx
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
The morning surface charts issued by the Weather Prediction Center suggest a wave of weak low pressure moving West across the Gulf and possibly TS Dorian near Florida and entering the NE Gulf on Labor Day.
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Icon takes it right into south florida and into the gom.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=168
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=168
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Big shift to the w on the 0z euro. Looking downstream I don't see how it could get this far w with what looks like a weak front but the ngom could be in play after a fla impact.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Well, looks like we can trash the 12Z Euro and GFS ensembles. Neither correctly initialized with Dorian's new reformed center. Lets do it again in a few hours.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
The data from the upper level NOAA mission should be ingested in the 0z suite tonight and may help bring some clarity.
T
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Any idea if 18z GFS is initializing off of correct center fix? It definitely does not seem to think much of the west Atlantic ridge. This is the strongest and furthest east run so far.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Initialization looked ok on both. New GFS is just way faster allowing it further n along with a weaker ridge.sau27 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:33 pmAny idea if 18z GFS is initializing off of correct center fix? It definitely does not seem to think much of the west Atlantic ridge. This is the strongest and furthest east run so far.
The modeling is just way out of whack right now. The big 3 are all over the place. Ukie s fla, Euro c fla and now the GFS ga/sc.
- Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Lots of Sal coming off of Africa now. That wont affected Dorian but he still needs to meet some rough terrain
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Really rubs me the wrong way to see a certain TV met showing the 18z Gfs as if it’s solution is a done deal for this storm during their weather segment tonight. If anything that run was an outlier at this point.
- Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Who is it???
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant