September 2019 - Warm End of September

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:43 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:23 pm18z euro

I’ll gladly take that. Gives me about 3-4” of rain. Harris County doesn’t need no 10-16” though. Way too much concrete there.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:46 pm

Latest 12km NAM has a slight west shift with the heaviest totals. Bullseye right over Brazoria, Fort Bend, & Harris counties. Absolutely ridiculous totals of rain. 15-20”+.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:51 pm

Yeah it will keep going back and forth

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:56 pm

0z NAM ...

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:57 pm

don wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:56 pm0z NAM ...

That’s insane.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:02 pm

We're getting into the timeframe where big shifts in the modeling is less likely and it soon will be "now casting" time. With the low "invest" developing currently, the model runs of 20+ in can't be ignored.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:05 pm

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:02 pm We're getting into the timeframe where big shifts in the modeling is less likely and it soon will be "now casting" time. With the low "invest" developing currently, the model runs of 20+ in can't be ignored.

There’s about a 50-75 mile shift west from the 18z to 0z NAM. That’s a pretty good shift west.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:24 pm

Both the 0z 12km NAM & 3KM have shifted a good bit west from 18z.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:39 pm

This little system isn’t looking too shabby right now. It’s maintaining convection over what looks to be a LLC. While it’s mostly acedemic if it hits the necessary threshold to make it to TD or TS status, the formation of a distinct Low level circulation enhances the possibility of a core rain event developing at some point.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:49 pm

NAM 3km totals:

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:52 pm

Couple of observations --
1) Hardly any deep convection right now
2) Lots of dry air all around

It is tightening-up, but it has a lot of work to do to become classified as anything.

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:18 pm

The EURO has over 30 inches of rain.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:10 am

How accurate is euro?! Im in meyerland!

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:35 am

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:18 pm The EURO has over 30 inches of rain.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

Within 10 miles I could get 2 in or 20 in. Crazy gradient.

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:47 am

art3 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:10 am How accurate is euro?! Im in meyerland!

Statistically, it is the most reliable model we have. With that said, you will be asking a lot of any model to accurately pinpoint the direct area that will receive 15+ inches of rain, even only a couple of days out.

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:41 am

National Hurricane Center has further increased the odds of formation to 30%. Overall, still an elongated low with the mid and upper level low located SE of Victoria and LLC southeast of Corpus. Might see them stack more in the next 12-24 hours. Regardless, wind isn't going to be the story.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations
indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are
no signs of a surface circulation at this time. Some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper
Texas coastal areas later this week. For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila

: NHC

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:44 am

ECMWF 00z run is quicker to eject the low north and points to a slightly more east bullseye. Also has less training with max precip more reasonable around 16 inches.

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:04 am

Hard to fully tell without visible imagery but it does appear to be giving it a go.

Not A bad blowup these last few hours.

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:49 am

HRRR has been indicating last few runs that the tropical thunderstorms off the coast moving inland could result in banding somewhere around SETX into possibly the Houston area. Showing narrow swath of 6-9" by midday.

: HGX Radar

: HRRR 07z

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:46 am

The WPC now has portions of southeast Texas including Houston metro in a Moderate risk for 3 days including today.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.p ... curr&day=1

September 2019 - Warm End of September

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