September 2019 - Warm End of September

[sau27]

Being at least 10 days out I am not too concerned with Karen. Climatologicaly speaking a non-gulf brewed storm striking near our area this time of year would be unheard of. I looked at the historic track tool the hurricane center has and ran if for storms within 150 miles of Galveston in October and below is what it showed. No storm from outside the Gulf has ever come near us October.

[Texaspirate11]

Being at least 10 days out I am not too concerned with Karen. Climatologicaly speaking a non-gulf brewed storm striking near our area this time of year would be unheard of. I looked at the historic track tool the hurricane center has and ran if for storms within 150 miles of Galveston in October and below is what it showed. No storm from outside the Gulf has ever come near us October.

Generally we shut down the last week or so in September *generally*

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche late week into the weekend. We may see a healthy surge of deep tropical moisture along the Texas Coast from any mischief that could spin up closer to home.

[jasons2k]

Ike’s track was unprecedented.

The rainfall from Harvey was unprecedented.

Seems like “unprecedented” events are commonplace these days. Not that I’m particularly worried about Karen, but I’m not letting my guard down until it either moves out to sea, dissipates, or makes a terminal landfall.

[Scott747]

Didn't take long for the euro to have a different solution with Karen. More to do with Jerry.

Otherwise it would of shown something similar as the two previous runs although it's much weaker and only makes it too the Eastern gulf with the slower movement.

Interesting and complicated setup.

[DoctorMu]

Today is the first day of Autumn 2019, officially. Happy Fall everyone!

Fall has been cancelled...See you in December... Even winter is on the chopping block.

We've seen waaaaaayyyy too much of that over the last 10 years. Then winter is pot luck.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232002
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expanding northward through
the area. Slow movers with rainfall rates of up to 1"/hour.
Temperatures should trend down quickly this evening and make for a
pleasant evening. Overnight some patchy fog looks like a good bet
for the areas from Tomball-Conroe to Liberty northward as well as
stratus. Scattered showers should redevelop early Tuesday morning
in the coastal waters and be headed towards Brazoria/Matagorda
counties. Moist axis that was centered over the SETX is going to
be shifting west and by Tuesday afternoon expect PW to have
dropped to less than 1.4" over the eastern areas with greater
subsidence.

45


&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday night through Sunday]...

The strength and location of stacked ridging near the Gulf Coast
will be a dominant influencer of the weather into this weekend.
Model trends now have the ridge running a touch weaker through the
work week, and potentially even strengthening as it retreats
eastward this weekend.

All in all, the impacts on the forecast do not seem terribly
significant at this time. High temps from the work week into the
weekend are a little closer together than before, and with lower
precipitable water expected - below the median for the season and
as low as the 25th percentile - I still don`t think we`ll be able
to manage much more than isolated showers and storms for the bulk
of the week ahead.

Of course, with precipitable water still expected to surge to
around or above 2 inches this weekend, we should still look for
better convective coverage. While the period of the strongest
ridge is now progged to be over the weekend, it will have
retreated to the east, so less influence for our northwest corner
of the Gulf, and there seems to be continued general model
agreement for a vort max rolling around the edge of the ridge this
weekend, further supporting rainfall potential.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All river watches and warnings have been canceled, as gages
around the area go beneath flood stage at all points. That said,
there are still a number of roads reported to be covered by water
in Chambers County - so, while smaller, the areal flood warning in
the east continues. In addition, Harris County has come across
several roads covered with water and impassable in the vicinity of
Cedar Bayou, so an areal flood warning continues there as well.
While today`s rainfall is certainly not helping things dry out in
the locations most heavily impacted by the past week`s rainfall,
significant new flooding is not expected.

&&

.TROPICAL...
The National Hurricane Center has identified an area of interest
in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has some potential for
development. At this time, the only impacts anticipated for our
area would be slightly higher seas in the Gulf. However, some
outlier model solution do suggest an area of low pressure (but not
necessarily a tropical cyclone) that may drift our way. While
these solutions are not a significant consideration in the
forecast, it does serve as a reminder that it is a good idea to
monitor the forecasts in the coming days to ensure that
expectations have not changed.
&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 92 71 93 71 / 10 20 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 74 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 87 79 87 79 / 0 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Luchs
HYDROLOGY...Luchs
TROPICAL...Luchs

[snowman65]

Who needs a good laugh, courtesy of the GFS.......

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is wild.

[Scott747]

Models are really in a crazy mood now.

The GFS has been showing some really lowering of pressures across the western Caribbean in the long range.

18z has a system in the longer range (unrelated to Karen) that comes out of the Caribbean and hits around Corpus as a hurricane.

Just crazy seeing runs this late in the season favoring the Western gulf, even if it is in the longer range...

[Ptarmigan]

Models are really in a crazy mood now.

The GFS has been showing some really lowering of pressures across the western Caribbean in the long range.

18z has a system in the longer range (unrelated to Karen) that comes out of the Caribbean and hits around Corpus as a hurricane.

Just crazy seeing runs this late in the season favoring the Western gulf, even if it is in the longer range...

I take long range forecast models with a grain of salt.

[srainhoutx]

As mentioned around mid September, a very conducive Hemispheric Pattern for the Atlantic Basin has arrived. The MJO is in Phase 1 as well as lower pressures and rising air and the strongest Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave of the Hurricane Season is right overhead. I am not surprised to see the Tropics active and I am certainly not surprised the computer models are indicating activity. As that strong CCKW passes, I suspect we will see additional development in the Atlantic Basin. Fingers crossed for that first cold front real soon...

[jasons2k]

The current pattern isn’t typical of one we see in late September. Have to look at the pattern, not the calendar.

On another note - it’s nice to see everything looks green and alive again. There are some brown cypress trees with bright green tips. It’s almost like springtime in the fall...

[Scott747]

Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.

[Cpv17]

Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.

With lowering pressures in the region around the W. Caribbean/Yucatán and a SE ridge there’s no telling what will happen. Fun model watching times ahead.

[Scott747]

Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.

With lowering pressures in the region around the W. Caribbean/Yucatán and a SE ridge there’s no telling what will happen. Fun model watching times ahead.

Correct. I'd guess that the euro over the next few days will begin picking up on the CA system. After that I still have a hard time believing the ridging would remain that strong for so long heading into mid October.

[Katdaddy]

Hot and mostly sunny skies across much of SE TX the next fews. Some isolated showers and a thunderstorm possibly across SW portions of SE TX. Moisture returns late this week and weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The tropics remain active but no concern for the TX Coast for the next 5 days. A small area of disturbed weather will move across S GOM and BOC into MX. The current NHC forecast still show a turn W or WSW toward FL this weekend however this 5 days out and the track will be depend on the strength of high pressure ridge to the N and NW of Karen.

The Houston-Galveston NWS mention the long range models hinting at our first cold front in 2 weeks which could easily change:

With the beginning of autumn yesterday, our minds of course have started to wonder about the potential for the first cold frontal passage of the season. Global models are hinting at this possibility for the end of next week or beginning of next weekend...but if 240-hour model forecasts have taught us anything, it`s that now is not the time to get your hopes up just yet.

[sau27]

Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.

With lowering pressures in the region around the W. Caribbean/Yucatán and a SE ridge there’s no telling what will happen. Fun model watching times ahead.

Correct. I'd guess that the euro over the next few days will begin picking up on the CA system. After that I still have a hard time believing the ridging would remain that strong for so long heading into mid October.

That 00z GFS is wild. I don't think I've seen a modeled storm loop around to the backside of an incoming trough and then continue westward.

[tireman4]

Well, and some folks will have to correct me if I am wrong, but October 2004, did we not have a ridging in effect. I say this because it was hot the whole month. I record heat..even on Halloween..88 degrees...

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A mixture of IFR to VFR ceilings this morning across the SE TX
terminals. Anticipate patchy fog to fill in and ceilings to lower
potentially as low as LIFR at isolated sites before sunrise.
Should see improvement shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, winds
should be light out of the southeast today. Most showers should
stay to the west of any terminals this afternoon, with CLL
standing the best chance for impacts if any. At the time the
probability of CLL seeing showers looks low enough given the
recent runs of high-res guidance that have taken out any VCSH
mention. A low SCT-BKN deck looks to potentially build back in
during the early morning hours, with the development of patchy fog
once again possible.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tonight]...
Fairly quiet in the short term, with patchy to areas of fog being
the main focus this morning. Dew point depressions are slowly
closing to between one to two degrees mostly along and north of
I-10. Visibilities could lower to between 1 to 5 miles at times,
with isolated locations potentially impacted by visibilities of
less than one mile at times. Most of the fog should burn off
quickly after sunrise. Surface ridging is continuing to build in
from the east, bringing with it much drier precipitable water
values (PWs) as seen in the GOES-16 total precipitable water
imagery. PWs of less than 1.5 inches should continue to push in
from the east today and into tomorrow. Areas west of I-45 will see
another day of PWs closer to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Short term
guidance is continuing to trend drier, with only a slight chance
for showers today from Matagorda to Brazos County and westward.
That said, the region should see ample sunshine by the afternoon
hours, allowing high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s.
Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 60s to 70s,
with drier air in place and radiational cooling in full swing
under the influence of the ridge.

Hathaway

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...
Overall, the initial trend for the area continues to be
characterized by the presence of upper-level ridging over the
central US and surface high pressure over SE Texas. The reduced
onshore moisture transport which will hinder the development of
diurnally-driven convection through mid-week slowly begins to
subside by Wednesday, and precipitation coverage becomes more
widespread by the weekend. On Wednesday, global model guidance is
in agreement in showing the a weak disturbance embedded within
upper-level zonal flow as the upper-level ridge shifts eastward.
The positive vorticity advection (PVA) stemming from this feature
along with a brief localized plume of enhanced precipitable water
(PW) values visible on recent NAM guidance should allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the western half
of the CWA. While the vorticity maximum may linger offshore,
reduced PWs otherwise will remain in place through Friday morning
and PoPs remain generally low as a result. By Saturday, enhanced
moisture transport returns as the upper-level ridge shifts
eastward. With onshore flow picking up and PWs potentially in the
2+ inch range, precipitation coverage should increase over the
weekend, with the development of stronger storms possible. The
upper-level ridge looks to build back in from the east late in the
weekend, and typical diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity is to be expected.

With the beginning of autumn yesterday, our minds of course have
started to wonder about the potential for the first cold frontal
passage of the season. Global models are hinting at this possibility
for the end of next week or beginning of next weekend...but if 240-
hour model forecasts have taught us anything, it`s that now is not
the time to get your hopes up just yet.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow remains over the upper Texas Gulf
waters and across both Matagorda and Galveston Bay this morning.
Should be mostly quiet through a majority of the week, with only
a chance for showers across the Gulf waters each morning. The
chance for precipitation increases Friday as better moisture is
advected across the region. Therefore expect more widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Friday through the
weekend. Onshore flow will also increase in speed during this time
frame as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds out of the S to SE
should reach SCEC criteria by late Friday and into the early part
of next week. Seas will also build to 4 to 6 feet across the Gulf
waters during this time frame.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 71 94 71 93 / 20 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 91 72 90 72 90 / 10 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 79 88 79 88 / 10 10 10 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08