September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:34 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:43 am
srainhoutx wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:45 am INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.
The Euro keeps this in the NE Gulf. This map by the NHC has it going towards the central Gulf. What’s up with that?

The Euro is one model, and I think the NHC takes more than just one model into account.
I realize that, but the EPS takes it there too and a lot of other models and ensembles as well.
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jasons2k
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:27 pm
cperk wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm
jasons wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:52 am I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.
You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order. :)
Lol..agreed!
Let’s not take things out of context. In fairness, he said it was a “hunch” our season was over based on the pattern and then he said “of course, there could be that exception” over the next 2-3 weeks.

I don’t think he was being cocky at all. Just telling us what he thinks...
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DoctorMu
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jasons wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:52 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:27 pm
cperk wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order. :)
Lol..agreed!
Let’s not take things out of context. In fairness, he said it was a “hunch” our season was over based on the pattern and then he said “of course, there could be that exception” over the next 2-3 weeks.

I don’t think he was being cocky at all. Just telling us what he thinks...

Climo usually breaks down down the ridge that might send GoM tropical systems to Texas...but the ridge built late and stubbornly so this year. High pressure over SEC land is expected to move east...but nothing written in stone.
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srainhoutx
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For those following 95L, the 12Z GEFS ensembles did shift a bit to the West with almost half the individual members offshore of Middle/Upper Texas and Louisiana Coast, although there is little in the way of strengthening. The NHC has increased development chances to 40%/60%. Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to investigate on Thursday...if necessary.
09112019 12Z GEFS gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_18.png
09112019 2 PM TWO two_atl_5d0.png
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a
sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern
Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical
depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida
as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Also, today marks the anniversary of Hurricane Carla making landfall along the Texas Coast. Alex Garcia put together a nice youtube regarding Carla...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRhAAvPIRBo
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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Man the radar is quiet.
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Rip76
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Thanks Srain.

Here is another one I found on Carla that is pretty good.

https://texasarchive.org/library/index. ... vsOiZz6rww
Cromagnum
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jasons wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:52 am I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.
Until cold fronts start matching south with any regularity, that is a naieve statement for them to make.
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snowman65
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Still 2 weeks away but this was there this morning...
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jasons2k
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Storms moving out of downtown are holding together along the 290 corridor, but anything the crosses east of 45 just evaporates :(
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srainhoutx
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Crazy thunderstorm here at the house. Wind gusted to 45 MPH, frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall.

Edit to add: Nearing 1.5 inches in the last 20 minutes
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unome
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:50 pm Crazy thunderstorm here at the house. Wind gusted to 45 MPH, frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall.
bit of a hail signature in it also - can hear the thunder from here - stay safe !

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-HHC-1-48
unome
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we got some strong rains, nothing severe though, looks like it weakened before it got to us - loving the rain, just did the yard this morning

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 4896661504

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

TXZ213-112200-
Inland Harris TX-
435 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...Strong Thunderstorm in Western Harris County...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Jersey Village, moving north at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. These
winds may push away from the storm significantly, and cause gusty
winds where rain is not occurring.

Locations impacted include...
Jersey Village, Addicks Park Ten, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing,
Cypress, Westbranch, Carverdale, Willowbrook and Greater Inwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
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srainhoutx
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Pool and Koi pond filled from the rain. Good way to end the day!
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jasons2k
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Raining with thunder here!!

Edit: it was more impressive on radar than on the ground. Got .10” but that’s better than nothing!
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Katdaddy
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Picked up a quick .25" this afternoon here in W League City. Glad you finally got some very well needed rain up there Jasons!!!!
Cromagnum
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Rained hard this morning for 15 minutes. Nothing all day. Everything is forming west of here and headed to the northwest
redneckweather
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Nothing here at the house again and it is pouring 150 yards down the road. 🤯
Cpv17
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70% now. Code red:

Image

I find it interesting that several of the models and ensembles bring this into the NE Gulf, but yet the NHC has it aimed towards the central Gulf. I don’t see any models that want to take it that far west so I really don’t know what they’re seeing?
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srainhoutx
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:06 pm 70% now. Code red:

Image

I find it interesting that several of the models and ensembles bring this into the NE Gulf, but yet the NHC has it aimed towards the central Gulf. I don’t see any models that want to take it that far west so I really don’t know what they’re seeing?
Ensembles and guidance that is not publicly available. Their 'track record' is very good at this range. They will tell you intensity still needs work... ;)
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