September 2019 - Warm End of September

[nlosrgr8]

Received a nice little storm this morning in Sugar Land, but now I need to travel to Klein. It seems the rains dissipate north of I10, do y’all think this will hold all day?

[srainhoutx]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

[Cpv17]

The HRRR this morning doesn’t look as promising for today as it did last night.

[jasons2k]

Yeah. Fingers crossed for a round 2 this afternoon because this morning’s stuff fizzled before it got to me.

[Cpv17]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The Euro keeps this in the NE Gulf. This map by the NHC has it going towards the central Gulf. What’s up with that?

[Rip76]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The Euro keeps this in the NE Gulf. This map by the NHC has it going towards the central Gulf. What’s up with that?

The Euro is one model, and I think the NHC takes more than just one model into account.

[jasons2k]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

[cperk]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order.

[Kingwood36]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order.

Lol..agreed!

[txbear]

Couldn't help but notice a fantastic view of thunderheads far to the southwest from my office. A quick check of the radar, and that appears to be cells near Corpus. Amazing what a little mixing out of the haze of moisture will do for sight lines.

[Cpv17]

INVEST 95L Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Area of disturbed weather in the SE Bahamas has been declared 95L by the National Hurricane Center.

This feature consist of a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough over Cuba. While shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, the overall organization of the system has increased in the last 24 hours. As the upper level trough to the west moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours, the surface reflection (currently a wave axis) will also move W to WNW toward the western Bahamas, the FL Straits, or the FL Keys and then eventually into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico. It is unclear at this time if a surface reflection will be able to separate enough from the upper level trough allowing a more favorable environment for the formation of a surface circulation. The latest GFS, CMC, and ECWMF all suggest that while the system is likely to be sheared with an upper level trough to the west, a surface circulation should eventually form somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

With high pressure over the SE US any surface low formation would likely track toward the WNW/NW and potentially impact the US Gulf coast early next week.

At this time it is too early to know with any certainly where a surface circulation may form and where any potential tropical system may track.

NHC currently gives the feature a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

The Euro keeps this in the NE Gulf. This map by the NHC has it going towards the central Gulf. What’s up with that?

The Euro is one model, and I think the NHC takes more than just one model into account.

I realize that, but the EPS takes it there too and a lot of other models and ensembles as well.

[jasons2k]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order.

Lol..agreed!

Let’s not take things out of context. In fairness, he said it was a “hunch” our season was over based on the pattern and then he said “of course, there could be that exception” over the next 2-3 weeks.

I don’t think he was being cocky at all. Just telling us what he thinks...

[DoctorMu]

You know after several pro-mets ended up with egg on their face predicting the demise of the second most powerful hurricane recorded in the atlantic with Dorian you would think a little less cockiness would be in order.

Lol..agreed!

Let’s not take things out of context. In fairness, he said it was a “hunch” our season was over based on the pattern and then he said “of course, there could be that exception” over the next 2-3 weeks.

I don’t think he was being cocky at all. Just telling us what he thinks...

Climo usually breaks down down the ridge that might send GoM tropical systems to Texas...but the ridge built late and stubbornly so this year. High pressure over SEC land is expected to move east...but nothing written in stone.

[srainhoutx]

For those following 95L, the 12Z GEFS ensembles did shift a bit to the West with almost half the individual members offshore of Middle/Upper Texas and Louisiana Coast, although there is little in the way of strengthening. The NHC has increased development chances to 40%/60%. Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to investigate on Thursday...if necessary.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a
sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern
Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical
depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida
as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[srainhoutx]

Also, today marks the anniversary of Hurricane Carla making landfall along the Texas Coast. Alex Garcia put together a nice youtube regarding Carla...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRhAAvPIRBo

[Cpv17]

Man the radar is quiet.

[Rip76]

Thanks Srain.

Here is another one I found on Carla that is pretty good.

https://texasarchive.org/library/index. ... vsOiZz6rww

[Cromagnum]

I’m on the mailing list for another pro-met, and he believes our tropical season for Texas is already over.

That could be true or it could be the kiss of death. We’ll see...

It does appear that if anything forms in the Gulf this weekend it will remain east of here. If we want rain, hope that upper low can keep moving west and bring us another surge of moisture. We probably don’t want to see anything form in the gulf because it would just induce a dry offshore flow like last weekend...and we don’t want that again.

Until cold fronts start matching south with any regularity, that is a naieve statement for them to make.

[snowman65]

Still 2 weeks away but this was there this morning...

[jasons2k]

Storms moving out of downtown are holding together along the 290 corridor, but anything the crosses east of 45 just evaporates