September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Cpv17]

Another .20” today. Up to 9” now since last week. Everything is green again. We’ve gotten the perfect amount of rain here. Very blessed!

[Andrew]

able to check in just now had to be rescued lots of cell towers down we are safe had to be rescued from home by boat many areas still flooded underwater here but we are safe just seeing we had 42” rotal anyway safe and thanks for all prayers same to u guys mike

I am sorry to hear about the damage you received, but I am glad you got out safe. Please keep us updated.

[snowman65]

able to check in just now had to be rescued lots of cell towers down we are safe had to be rescued from home by boat many areas still flooded underwater here but we are safe just seeing we had 42” rotal anyway safe and thanks for all prayers same to u guys mike

Dang, Mike.I hate to hear that! This place is a MESS, like alot of areas. I went in to work Thursday morning but left and glad I did, not knowing what was to come. I made out just fine but father in law got about 2" in his home. Better than the 13" he had from Harvey, and fortunately he has flood insurance this time!! Hope you rebound quickly...Keep us posted.

[Belmer]

able to check in just now had to be rescued lots of cell towers down we are safe had to be rescued from home by boat many areas still flooded underwater here but we are safe just seeing we had 42” rotal anyway safe and thanks for all prayers same to u guys mike

Glad you were able to get to drier grounds, Mike! Terrible to see how bad it got out that way. Y'all are resilient though and will get through this; as tough as it seems right now. Keep us updated on your progress.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Potential cold front late next week. Chance of rain with it. Without a robust cap, 20% chance of showers daily before that.

Decent seabreeze today. I couple of tenths here, a couple of tenths there and precip ads up. We've had maybe 0.65 in of rain before today.

The sun angle is getting lower with climo. I just need enough to turn the sprinklers off...

Glad CS didn’t get more. I didn’t want the tailgate to be a muddy mess. BCS can have all the rain it wants from Sunday until October 5th, then it needs to be dry and cool from then through the 12th.

[DoctorMu]

Potential cold front late next week. Chance of rain with it. Without a robust cap, 20% chance of showers daily before that.

Decent seabreeze today. I couple of tenths here, a couple of tenths there and precip ads up. We've had maybe 0.65 in of rain before today.

The sun angle is getting lower with climo. I just need enough to turn the sprinklers off...

Glad CS didn’t get more. I didn’t want the tailgate to be a muddy mess. BCS can have all the rain it wants from Sunday until October 5th, then it needs to be dry and cool from then through the 12th.

haha Good luck with that! October is our rainy month.

[jasons2k]

I added another 1.33" today (technically yesterday now). 11.91" storm total from Imelda. I needed the rain, but glad to see you go. Onto the next...

[Cpv17]

By looking at the Euro and GFS, it doesn’t look like next week will be much of anything at this time.

[Kludge]

It's time that I took the baton from jasons regarding the drought.

A tropical storm hit the HGX CWA dead-center this week. I live in the HGX CWA. Some folks got FEET of rain. I got bupkus. Oh maaaybe 0.08" in a dying shower.

To those of you who got water in your home, my heart goes out to you. To those of you who got welcome rainfall, my jealousy goes out to you .

I gave up on the "lawn". I've got cracks in my dirt wider than your aunt Mable's butt.

You are all hereby required to send any clouds that you see up my way.

[jasons2k]

It's time that I took the baton from jasons regarding the drought.

I was hoping you would get some rain. Perhaps the system next week will bring some more.

PS - I updated my username

[unome]

I apologize if this is off topic, but thought it might be needed or helpful - could we possiby have a dedicated thread, for assistance, etc info for those affected by this disaster ? It may help someone get what they need quicker - just a thought

anyway, this tweet provides info for home cleanup assistance in Harris County https://twitter.com/JudgeHidalgo/status ... 3036572674

[Scott747]

0z euro had quite the run with 99l. Looked a bit like a Ike track with a wsw motion into Cuba.

Gets in the gulf but ends up with a more northerly heading to the Eastern gulf.

A few of the euro ensembles brings it to Texas. Hard to imagine this late in the season, but something to watch if it becomes a trend.

[srainhoutx]

Gulf moisture is streaming inland this morning and that should be the weather theme into Monday. Rainfall amounts look to be manageable for areas still experiencing flood issues from Imelda. We may see a bit drier air Tuesday into Wednesday, but another surge of Gulf moisture may arrive Wednesday night/Thursday setting the stage for additional showers and storms.

Way out near the Windward Islands of the Caribbean, former INVEST 99L has become Tropical Storm Karen as of 5:00 AST. Currently is a threat the Caribbean Islands into mid week and will not have any impact on our sensible weather through the upcoming work week. That said, the NHC does believe a stall and likely a turn back to the West is possible later this coming week as the Bermuda Ridge builds back post Jerry and Karen could approach the Bahamas later this coming week. We certainly will be monitoring. I still see no cold front arriving before the end of September. Perhaps the first several days of October could bring a front, but that would be another Topic.

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward
Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago
has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery
also show that deep convection has increased and has become better
organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute
wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data
showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle.
Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern
Windward Islands as a result.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest
NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving
northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north
into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is
forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on
day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern
United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official
track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48
hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the
upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen
maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable
shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move
underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a
significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level
outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model.

A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be
issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff regarding Cedar Bayou ongoing flooding...

Flooding continues along much of Cedar Bayou.

Water levels have been very slow to fall after 25-30 inches of rain occurred over the upper and middle portions of the watershed last Thursday. Widespread run-off from Liberty County continues to move into the bayou and while water levels are falling they are falling much slower than usual for this watershed especially in areas north of US 90.

Water levels will continue to slowly fall, but flooding is expected to continue along Cedar Bayou into Monday and possibly into Tuesday

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS weakens Karen significantly, but sends the remnants into Texas. Thought that was worth mentioning.

[Katdaddy]

A nice little tropical shower with the sun shinning. Its humid and refreshing but much better than 14 year's ago stuck in the epic Hurricane Rita 2005 evacuation nightmare.

[Scott747]

Yikes!

The high on the 12z euro.

[Cpv17]

Yikes!

The high on the 12z euro.

Yeah, no kidding. Remarkable track on the Euro for late September.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro sends this into SWLA as a tropical storm in 10 days. Way too close for comfort. We’ll need to pay attention to Karen folks.

[Cpv17]

The Euro actually has two systems in the west Gulf at the same time.